macroeconomic equilibrium. Macroeconomics

Macroeconomic equilibrium is such a state of the national economy, when the use of limited production resources to create goods and services and their distribution among different members of society is balanced. That is, there is an overall proportionality between:

• - resources and their use;
• - factors of production and the results of their use;
• - total production and total consumption;
• - aggregate supply and aggregate demand;
• - material and financial flows.

conditions for economic equilibrium.

In a market economy, equilibrium is the correspondence between the production of goods and effective demand for them, that is, such an ideal situation when exactly as much product is produced as they can buy at a given price. It can be achieved by limiting the needs for economic benefits, that is, by reducing the effective demand for goods and services, or by increasing and optimizing the use of resources.

Such a balance is an economic ideal: without bankruptcies and natural disasters, without social and economic upheavals. In economic theory, the macroeconomic ideal is the construction of models of the general equilibrium of the economic system. In real life, various violations of the requirements of such a model occur. But the significance of theoretical models of macroeconomic equilibrium makes it possible to determine the specific factors of deviations of real processes from ideal ones, to find ways to implement the optimal state of the economy. In economics, there are many models of macroeconomic equilibrium that reflect the views of different areas of economic thought on this problem. Macroeconomic balance is the central problem of social reproduction.

Distinguish between ideal and real equilibrium.

The ideal is achieved in the economic behavior of individuals with the full optimal realization of their interests in all structural elements, sectors, and spheres of the national economy.

Achieving such an equilibrium presupposes the observance of the following conditions of reproduction:

• - All individuals must find commodities on the market;
• - All entrepreneurs must find factors of production on the market;
• - The entire product of last year must be sold.

Ideal equilibrium comes from the prerequisites of perfect competition and the absence of side effects, which is not realistic in principle, since in a real economy there are no such phenomena as perfect competition and a pure market.

Crises and inflation bring the economy out of balance. The real macroeconomic equilibrium is the equilibrium that is established in the economic system under conditions of imperfect competition and with external factors influencing the market.

Distinguish between partial and complete equilibrium:

• - Partial is the equilibrium in a single market of goods, services, factors of production;
• - Complete (general) equilibrium is the simultaneous equilibrium in all markets, the equilibrium of the entire economic system, or macroeconomic equilibrium.

Complete economic equilibrium is the structural optimum of the economic system, to which society strives, but never fully achieves it due to the constant change in the optimum itself, the ideal of proportionality.

Equilibrium can also be stable and unstable. An equilibrium is said to be stable if, in response to an external impulse that causes a deviation from equilibrium, the economy returns to a stable state on its own.

If, after an external influence, the economy cannot self-regulate, then the equilibrium is called unstable. The study of sustainability and the conditions for achieving general economic equilibrium is necessary to identify and overcome deviations, that is, to conduct an effective economic policy of the country.

Disbalance means that there is no balance in various spheres and sectors of the economy.

This leads to losses in the gross product, a decrease in the income of the population, the emergence of inflation and unemployment.

In order to achieve an equilibrium state of the economy, to prevent undesirable phenomena, experts use macroeconomic equilibrium models, the conclusions from which serve to substantiate the macroeconomic policy of the state.

First of all, aggregate demand (AD, aggregated demand) is the sum of all individual demands for final goods and services offered on the commodity market. The following also follows from this: aggregate demand - the total expenditures planned by all macroeconomic entities for the acquisition of all final goods and services created in the national economy. Equally important in macroeconomic equilibrium is the concept of aggregate supply.

The aggregate supply (AS, aggregated supply) in economic theory is the sum of all final goods and services produced in the country, which firms are willing to offer on the market for a certain period of time at each possible price level. In other words, this is the real volume of national production at various values ​​of the price index for final goods and services.

Classical model of macroeconomic equilibrium.

Proponents of the classical approach proceed from the fact that under conditions of perfect competition, full employment is achieved automatically. The scarcity of resources, in their opinion, highlights the problem of production, since, according to Say's law, aggregate demand always corresponds to aggregate supply. Therefore, the classical model studies the economy from the side of aggregate supply. J.B. Saym: "Products are exchanged for products."

The classical model of macroeconomic equilibrium dominated economic science for about 100 years, until the 1930s. It is based on J. Say's law: the production of goods creates its own demand. According to this theory, each producer is simultaneously a buyer - sooner or later he acquires a product produced by another person for the amount received from the sale of his own product. Thus, macroeconomic equilibrium is provided automatically: everything that is produced is sold. This similar model assumes the fulfillment of three conditions:

• - each person is both a consumer and a producer;
• - all producers spend only their own income;
• - the income is spent completely.

But in the real economy, part of the income is saved by households. Therefore, aggregate demand decreases by the amount of savings. Consumption spending is insufficient to purchase all of the products produced. As a result, unsold surpluses are formed, which causes a decline in production, an increase in unemployment and a decrease in income.

In the classical model, the lack of funds for consumption caused by saving is compensated by investment. If entrepreneurs invest as much as households save, then J. Say's law is valid, the level of production and employment remains constant. That is, the generated volume of aggregate supply is the sum of household incomes, which are distributed last for consumption and savings:

In order for the market of goods to be in equilibrium, the aggregate supply must be equal to the aggregate demand. Since aggregate demand in a simple model is the sum of consumer and investment spending:

Then, if the condition I = S is met, equilibrium will be established in the market for goods.

The main task is to encourage entrepreneurs to invest as much as they spend on savings. It is solved in the money market, where supply is represented by savings, demand - by investments, price - by the interest rate. The money market self-regulates savings and investment through the equilibrium interest rate.

The higher the interest rate, the more money is saved (because the owner of capital receives more dividends).

The second factor that ensures equilibrium is the elasticity of prices and wages. If, for some reason, the rate of interest does not change at a constant ratio of savings and investment, then the increase in savings is offset by lower prices, as producers seek to get rid of surplus products. Lower prices allow for fewer purchases while maintaining the same levels of output and employment.

In addition, a decrease in demand for goods will lead to a decrease in demand for labor. Unemployment will create competition and workers will accept lower wages.

Its rates will decrease so much that entrepreneurs will be able to hire all the unemployed. In such a situation, there is no need for government intervention in the economy. Thus, classical economists proceeded from the flexibility of prices, wages, interest rates, from the fact that wages and prices can move freely up and down, reflecting the balance between supply and demand.

According to them, the aggregate supply curve AS has the form of a vertical straight line, reflecting the potential output of GNP. A decrease in price entails a decrease in wages, and therefore full employment is maintained.

There is no reduction in real GNP. Here, all products will be sold at different prices. In other words, a decrease in aggregate demand does not lead to a decrease in GNP and employment, but only to a decrease in prices. Thus, the classical theory believes that the economic policy of the state can only affect the price level, and not output and employment. Therefore, its intervention in the regulation of the volume of production and employment is undesirable.

Keynesian model of macroeconomic equilibrium.

Proponents of the Keynesian approach believe that in a market of imperfect competition, full employment can only arise by chance. Aggregate demand is unstable and generally not sufficient to realize potential GDP.

As a result, the equilibrium GDP turns out to be lower than the potential one and, as a result, the underutilization of resources. Particularly volatile, according to Keynesians, is the investment demand of firms.

J.M. Keynes criticized the classics' claim that investment necessarily coincides with household savings. He justified the possibility of actual inequality of investments and savings by the fact that they are carried out by different economic agents pursuing different goals and having different behavioral motives.

Investments are made by firms, while savings are made by households. People save to buy expensive goods, for old age, for unexpected expenses, etc.

Firms invest in order to make a profit.

The growth of household savings (respectively, the reduction in their spending) is not always offset by an increase in investment spending. In this case, the reduction in aggregate demand leads to a fall in national production.

Under conditions of underemployment, according to Keynesians, the main economic problem is not the problem of aggregate supply, but of aggregate demand.

Aggregate demand (aggregate costs) Keynes considered the main factor determining the magnitude of aggregate supply. The more economic agents are willing to spend on goods, the more output firms will want to produce. The Keynesian model, therefore, studies the economy from the side of aggregate demand.

According to the Keynesians, the state is called upon to stimulate aggregate demand, to achieve its coincidence with potential GDP. J.M. Keynes and his followers proposed a set of measures of the state's monetary and fiscal policy aimed at stimulating aggregate demand.

Thus, the fundamental difference between the classical and Keynesian approaches is that the classics consider aggregate supply to be the main factor in stable economic development, while Keynesians consider aggregate demand to be the main factor.

Unlike the neoclassics, J. Keynes proceeded from the fact that market macroeconomics is characterized by disequilibrium: it does not provide full employment and does not have a self-regulation mechanism. At the same time, John. Keynes criticized two fundamental theses of the neoclassical theory of equilibrium.

First, he disagreed with the nature of the relationship between investment, savings, and the interest rate. The fact is that there is a discrepancy between investment and savings. After all, the subjects of savings and investors represent different groups of the population, which are guided by different economic interests and motives. Thus, some make money savings to buy a house, others - land, others - a car, etc. The motives for investments are also different, which are not reduced only to the rate of interest. Such a motive can be, for example, profit, depending on the size and effectiveness of investments. It should be taken into account that the source of investments, in addition to savings, can be credit institutions. As a result, the processes of saving and investment are not coordinated, which gives rise to fluctuations in the aggregate size of production, income, employment and price levels.

Secondly, the economy is developing inharmoniously, there is no elasticity in the ratio of prices and wages, as the neoclassicists believe. Here the imperfection of the market is manifested, associated with the existence of monopolists-producers. Under these conditions, according to J. Keynes, aggregate demand becomes volatile, and prices become inelastic, which supports unemployment for a long time. Therefore, state regulation of aggregate demand is necessary. According to J. Keynes, the amount of goods and services produced is directly dependent on the level of total spending (or aggregate demand), that is, the cost of goods and services. The most important part of total expenditure is consumption, which, together with saving, equals income after taxes (disposable income). Therefore, this income determines not only consumption, but also savings. In addition, the amount of consumption and savings depends on such factors as the amount of consumer debt, the amount of capital, etc.

The next component of total costs are investments, the value of which depends on two factors: the real interest rate and the rate of net profit.

The amount of investment costs is affected by the costs of acquiring, operating and maintaining fixed capital, changes in the availability of this capital, in technology and other temporary factors.

Thus, these expenditures on consumption and investment, which determine the amount of aggregate demand, are unstable. This causes instability in market macroeconomics.

In order to balance the economy, to ensure its balance, it is necessary, according to J. Keynes, to have "effective demand". The latter consists of consumption and investment costs. The effective demand should be maintained with the help of a multiplier that relates the increase in this demand to the increase in investment. economics economic Keynesian

At the same time, each investment turns into an individual income that goes to consumption and savings. As a result, the increase in "effective demand" becomes a multiplied value of the increase in the original investment. Moreover, the multiplier is directly dependent on what part of the income people spend on consumption. But personal consumption rises with income, although to a lesser extent than income. This is due to the psychological factor, which consists in the desire of people to save. It is the latter, according to J. Keynes, that leads to a decrease in the share of consumption in total income.

Considering the decline in the share of consumption in total income as a natural phenomenon inherent in human nature, J. Keynes notes that it is necessary to support such a component of total income as investment. The state should support private investment through tax, monetary policy and government spending.

In this way, the lack of "effective demand" is compensated by additional government demand, which contributes to the achievement of macroeconomic equilibrium. Modern macroeconomics is characterized by inflation and unemployment. Prices and wages are dynamic and may go down or up.

Therefore, the aggregate supply curve AS does not have a strictly vertical and horizontal value, as it is presented in the neoclassical and Keynesian models of general market equilibrium.

It should be noted that the shape of the aggregate supply curve AS depending on the change in AD has not only theoretical but also practical significance for the stabilization and economic growth in the country. Thus, in the current crisis conditions in Russia, the Keynesian version of increasing aggregate demand AD, in which the growth of GNP is not accompanied by an increase in prices, is more appropriate. At the same time, the classical concept is not suitable, when an increase in aggregate demand AD does not lead to an increase in GNP, but to an inflationary rise in prices.

Thus, the essence of Keynesian analysis is that the economy, left to itself and functioning on the principle of "invisible hand", is very likely to fall into a situation of either inflation or unemployment.

Once in this position, it is not able to balance itself on its own, since in an economic system with fixed prices there is no internal mechanism that ensures automatic balancing of aggregate demand and aggregate supply at the level of full employment. At the time of the classics, such a mechanism existed, it was a system of flexible prices, primarily flexible wages. If unemployment arose in the economy, wages fell and the demand for labor increased until all those who wanted to work found suitable jobs.

However, by the 1930s the role and influence of trade unions in the labor market has significantly increased, which have managed to significantly limit the ability of entrepreneurs to lower the price of labor.

Therefore, the economy of this period, having come to a state of equilibrium with underemployment, can be in it for an arbitrarily long time, without revealing the slightest tendency to involve unused resources in production, primarily free labor. Underemployment is on the rise.

Macroeconomic balance- this is a state of the national economy, when the use of limited economic resources to create goods and services and their distribution among various members of society are balanced, i.e. there is an overall proportionality between resources and their use; factors of production and the results of their use; production and consumption; supply and demand; material and financial flows. Achieving full equilibrium is an economic ideal, since economic crises, incomplete or inefficient use of resources are inevitable in real life. In economic theory, the macroeconomic ideal is the construction of models of the general equilibrium of the economic system.

Macroeconomic models are formalized (logically, graphically) descriptions of various economic phenomena and processes in order to identify functional relationships between them.

Despite the fact that in practice there are various violations of the requirements of such a model, knowledge of theoretical models of macroeconomic equilibrium makes it possible to determine specific factors of deviations of real processes from ideal ones, to find ways to implement the most optimal state of the economy. In economics, there are quite a few models of macroeconomic equilibrium that reflect the views of different areas of economic thought on this problem:

• the model of simple reproduction by F. Quesnay on the example of the economy of France in the 18th century;
• classical model of macroeconomic equilibrium;
• the model of general economic equilibrium under conditions of perfect competition by L. Walras;
• schemes of capitalist social reproduction (model of K. Marx);
• J. Keynes' short-term economic equilibrium model;
• the cost-output model of V. V. Leontiev.

Aggregate demand and aggregate supply

When developing models of macroeconomic equilibrium, a significant development, along with the construction of market-structured models (L. Walras model), was received by an approach that analyzes the conditions for ensuring equality between aggregate demand and aggregate supply in the national economy. To reveal the patterns of macroeconomic equilibrium, it is necessary first of all to formulate the concepts of aggregate demand and aggregate supply, since all changes in the national economy are associated with their changes.

Aggregate demand. Aggregate demand is understood as the sum of all individual demands for final goods and services offered in the commodity market. Aggregate demand consists of consumer spending (aggregate household demand), business investment spending, government spending, and spending on net exports.

Some elements of aggregate demand are relatively stable, such as consumer spending; others are more dynamic, in particular investment spending. The aggregate demand curve (Fig. 12.1) shows the amount of goods and services that consumers are willing to purchase at the appropriate price level. It provides such options for combining the volume of production of goods and services and the general level of prices in the economy, in which the commodity and money markets are in equilibrium.

In macroeconomics, the level of aggregate demand as an aggregate money demand for GNP elements is influenced by two main factors: the amount of money in the economy (M) and the rate of their turnover (V). The influence of all other factors of demand on a particular commodity is ultimately reduced to changes in these factors. The negative slope of the aggregate demand curve can be explained as follows: the higher the price level (P), the lower the real stock of money (M/P), and hence the smaller the quantity of goods and services for which demand is presented (Q).

The inverse relationship between aggregate demand and the price level is also associated with the interest rate effect, the wealth effect, and the effect of import purchases. Thus, when prices rise, the demand for money and the interest rate increase. The appreciation of credit leads to a decrease in consumer and investment spending and, accordingly, to a decrease in the volume of aggregate demand. Rising prices also reduce the real purchasing power of accumulated fixed-value financial assets (bonds, term accounts) and encourage their owners to cut costs. Rising domestic prices with unchanged import prices shift part of the demand from domestic goods to imported goods and reduce exports, which also leads to a fall in aggregate demand in the economy.

With expanded reproduction, part of the surplus value of both divisions accumulates and acts as capital, which is used to acquire additional means of production and additional labor power. Therefore, in order to carry out expanded reproduction, part of the surplus value must have a natural form and consist of additional means of production to increase production and additional consumer goods for the workers newly drawn into production. Thus, with extended reproduction:

I(v + m) > IIc;
I(c + v + m) > Ic + IIc;
II(c + v + m) > I(v + m) + II(v + m). (12.2)

This means that the net product of Division I must be greater than the replacement fund for the means of production in Division II by the value of the accumulated means of production needed to expand production in both divisions.

The Marxist model of social reproduction shows the fundamental possibility of realizing a social product in a market economy. This model is an abstract realization theory, because if we take into account those factors from which Marx abstracted, then there will be significant problems in ensuring macroeconomic equilibrium.

Intersectoral balance model

Analysis of the structure of the national economy. The models of macroeconomic balance considered earlier reveal the most essential conditions for balance in the national economy. At the same time, they are insufficient for solving a number of practical tasks of the state's economic policy. One of these tasks to ensure sustainable growth of the national economy is the analysis of the structure of the country's economy, the prospects for its development. The main changes in the structure of the national economy are associated primarily with scientific and technological progress, the development and deepening of the social division of labor.

In the last third of the XX century. in economically developed countries, the transition from the dominance of the manufacturing industries in the economy to the outstripping development of the service sector is more and more clearly indicated. As a result, by the end of the century, the share of this sector of the economy in the national product of these countries reached 55-65%. The main limiting economic resource in the post-industrial economy is knowledge and information.

Computer communications are replacing traditional forms of communication. Under these conditions, education and science acquire an increasingly significant role in the economic and social development of the country. The transformation of the latter into a direct productive force gives it a qualitatively new meaning. Simultaneously with the rapid development of the "industry of knowledge" and the narrowing of the sphere of material production in developed countries, there have been significant qualitative changes in the real sector of the economy. The share of industrial production and the share of people employed in this sector increased mainly due to the reduction in the share of agricultural products and the share of people employed in it.

At the same time, science-intensive industries have been predominantly developed in industry: mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, and the chemical industry.

While the countries of Western Europe, Southeast Asia, and the United States began to actively develop post-industrial technologies based on the achievements of microelectronics, biotechnology and computer science, the economy of the former USSR continued to use (with rare exceptions) industrial and even pre-industrial technologies. The problems of resource saving, increasing the share of science-intensive, high-tech products were solved very slowly. Structural distortions have taken shape in the economy, one of which has been the growing share of the military-industrial complex, including the scientific component, to the detriment of the civilian sector of the economy.

The growing importance of investment in human capital, science and modern conditions is reflected in a noticeable increase in budgetary funding for education, training, R&D in developed countries. In accordance with Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 94-rp dated March 12, 2002, on March 20, a joint meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, the Presidium of the State Council of the Russian Federation and the Presidential Council on Science and High Technologies was held with the agenda "On the fundamentals of the policy of the Russian Federation in areas of science and technology development for the period up to 2010 and beyond”.

It was decided to allocate up to 4% of the budget to the development of science, and budget funding should be concentrated on strategic scientific and technical areas. For the development of science in general, one of the most important problems remains the determination of the most effective organizational forms of research activities of research institutes, 70% of which belong to the state.

In the modern economy, emphasis is placed on the development of innovative processes and high-tech industries. This was preceded by the solution of the structural problems of the Russian economy in previous decades.

If we evaluate the structural changes in the national economy that occurred in the 1990s in terms of increasing the efficiency of its functioning, then we should recognize the achievements of the state's macroeconomic policy in this area as minimal. One of the structural distortions in the Russian economy at the beginning of the reforms was the low share (18%) of the service sector in the national product. By the end of the 1990s. the share of this sector of the economy was about 50% of GNP. Assessing the quality of the almost threefold growth in the service sector, the following should be noted.

First, the increase took place against the backdrop of a significant drop in production in the real sector of the economy (industrial production fell by more than two times, agricultural production by 1.6 times). Along with this, there were negative changes in the structure of the basic branch of the real sector - industry. In the 1990s there was a noticeable decrease in the share of the manufacturing industry and at the same time an increase in the share of its extractive sector.

Secondly, the growth in the share of the services sector was ensured primarily by the accelerated development of trade and financial services. The formation and development of the banking system should be attributed to positive structural changes, provided that commercial banks made a profit mainly as a result of lending to the real sector, and not through participation in purely speculative operations in the financial market. At the same time, the state of such sectors of the service sector as science, the system of public education and vocational training has deteriorated significantly over the years of reforms.

Thirdly, structural transformations in the national economy were accompanied by a significant increase in investment. In Russia, the rate of decline in capital investment and the renewal of fixed capital exceeded the rate of decline in industrial production. By 1997, investment had fallen to the level of 10–15% compared with the early 1990s. Over the years of reforms, the volume of investments has decreased by an average of 13% per year.

Intersectoral balance model. One of the models of macroeconomic equilibrium, which can be used to predict economic growth, analyze the structure of the national economy, the efficiency of its functioning, is the intersectoral balance model. The development of an intersectoral balance in developed countries is associated with the name of the Nobel Prize winner (1973) V.V. Leontiev and the model of analysis of intersectoral relations "costs - output" proposed by him.

The first input-output balance was published in the USA in 1936. The input-output balance model (IRB) covers the entire process of reproduction, including production, distribution, exchange and consumption, and reflects the cost and natural form of GNP. All the main characteristics of macroeconomics are presented in the IOB model: spheres and sectors, gross output, GNP, intermediate product, final social product, national income, all material flows in the national economy, volumes of import-export relations. This makes it possible to use the intersectoral balance model for the analysis of macroeconomic equilibrium. The name of V. I. Leontiev’s model “costs-output” is associated with a twofold consideration of individual industries: on the one hand, as representatives of aggregate demand and buyers of material goods and services offered by other industries (costs), and, on the other hand, as representatives of aggregate offers and sellers of material goods and services provided by themselves (output). This makes it possible to link the intersectoral balance model with the system of national accounts.

Leontief's input-output balance is a "chess table" of the structure of the gross national product, which reflects the main material and cost flows of the national economy. Moreover, the number of these streams is not limited, everything is determined by the amount of information and the possibility of computing facilities. The Leontief table reflects the costs in each industry and the output of individual industries. These tables provide information on the consumption of intermediate products of each industry and its contribution to the creation of the final social product and national income. These tables show the sectoral structure of consumption of a part of the intermediate product created in a particular industry, as well as its final product.

This makes it possible to determine the natural and cost structure of the gross national product.

The intersectoral balance of production and distribution of the national product, broken down into several hundred industries, is compiled in many countries of the world, as well as in international organizations in accordance with the system of national accounts recommended by the UN. The advantages of the intersectoral balance model make it possible to use it both to analyze the current state of the national economy and to develop forecasts for its development.

3.3.1. The essence of general macroeconomic equilibrium

Macroeconomic balance is the main problem of macroeconomic analysis, the balanced state of the economic system as a single integral organism. The form of manifestation of the equilibrium of the economic system as a whole is the balance and proportionality of economic processes. Correspondence must be achieved between the following parameters of economic systems:

production and consumption;

Aggregate demand and aggregate supply;

Commodity weight and its monetary equivalent;

Savings and investments;

Labor, capital and consumer goods markets.

Violation of the general proportions will manifest itself in such phenomena as inflation, a decline in production, a decrease in the volume of the national product and a decrease in the real incomes of the population.

Macroeconomic equilibrium can be partial, at the same time general and real.

partial balance- balance in the individual commodity markets included in the system of the national economy. The foundations are laid in the works of A. Marshall.

At the same time, the overall equilibrium- this is equilibrium as a single interconnected system formed by all market processes on the basis of free competition.

Real macroeconomic equilibrium- is established in fact with imperfect competition and external factors influencing the market.

The general economic equilibrium is said to be stable if, after a disturbance, it is restored with the help of market forces. If the general economic equilibrium after a violation does not restore itself and government intervention is required, then such an equilibrium is called unstable. L. Walras is considered the founder of the theory of general economic equilibrium.

General equilibrium, according to L. Walras, is a situation where equilibrium is established simultaneously in all markets: consumer goods, money and labor, and it is achieved as a result of the flexibility of the system of relative prices.

Walras' law: the sum of excess demand and the sum of excess supply in all markets is the same, i.e. the monetary value of all goods on the supply side is equal to the total value of goods on the demand side.

An example of the simplest macroeconomic equilibrium model is the classical SEA model, in which aggregate supply (AS) equals aggregate demand (AD) (see figure). Using this model, you can explore various options for the economic policy of the state.

The intersection of AD and AS shows at point E the equilibrium output and the equilibrium price level. This means that the economy is in equilibrium at such values ​​of the real national product and at such a price level at which the volume of aggregate demand is equal to the volume of aggregate supply.

Macroeconomic equilibrium is such a state of the national economy when the use of limited production resources to create goods and services and their distribution among different members of society are balanced, i.e. there is an overall proportionality between:

Resources and their use;

Factors of production and the results of their use;

Aggregate production and aggregate consumption;

Aggregate supply and aggregate demand;

Intangible and financial flows.

Consequently, macroeconomic equilibrium presupposes the stable use of their interests in all spheres of the national economy.

Such a balance is an economic ideal: without bankruptcies and natural disasters, without social and economic upheavals. In economic theory, the macroeconomic ideal is the construction of models of the general equilibrium of the economic system. In real life, various violations of the requirements of such a model occur. But the value of theoretical models of macroeconomic equilibrium allows us to determine the specific factors of deviations of real processes from ideal ones, to find ways to implement the optimal state of the economy.

For macroeconomics, equilibrium means equality between aggregate demand and aggregate supply. At the same time, for macroeconomics, the optimal state is when aggregate demand coincides with aggregate supply (Fig. 1). It is called macroeconomic equilibrium and is reached at the point of intersection of the aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) curves.

The intersection of the curves of aggregate demand and aggregate supply determines the equilibrium price level and the equilibrium real volume of national production. It means that at a given price level (P E) the entire produced national product (Y E) will be sold. Here we should keep in mind the ratchet effect, which consists in the fact that prices rise easily, but hardly fall. Therefore, with a decrease in aggregate demand, prices cannot be expected to fall for a short period. Producers will respond to a decrease in aggregate demand by reducing output and only then, if this does not help, lower prices. The prices of goods and resources, once rising, do not immediately fall when aggregate demand decreases.

Figure 1 Macroeconomic equilibrium

We can distinguish the following signs of macroeconomic equilibrium:

compliance with public goals and real economic opportunities;

full use of all economic resources of society - land, labor, capital, information;

balance of supply and demand in all major markets at the micro level;

free competition, equality of all buyers in the market;

the immutability of economic situations.

Distinguish between general and particular macroeconomic equilibrium. General equilibrium means such a state of the economy as a whole, when there is a correspondence (coordinated development) of all spheres of the economic system, taking into account the interests of society and its members, that is, the overall proportionality and proportionality between the most important parameters of macroeconomic formation: economic growth factors and their use; production and consumption, consumption and accumulation, demand for goods and services and their supply; material and financial flows, etc.

In contrast to the general (macroeconomic) equilibrium, which covers the economic system as a whole, the private (local) equilibrium is limited to the framework of individual aspects and spheres of the national economy (budget, money circulation, etc.). General and particular equilibrium are relatively autonomous. Thus, the absence of partial equilibrium in any link of the economic system does not mean that the latter as a whole is not in equilibrium. And vice versa, the lack of balance in the economic system does not exclude the lack of balance in its individual links. However, the well-known independence of general and particular equilibrium does not mean that there is no interconnection and internal unity between them. After all, the state of the macroeconomic system as a whole cannot but affect the functioning of its individual parts. In turn, the processes in local areas cannot but have a certain impact on the state of the macroeconomic system as a whole.

As a condition for general (macroeconomic) equilibrium in the economy, one can single out: firstly, the correspondence of social goals and opportunities (material, financial, labor, etc.); secondly, the full and effective use of all factors of economic growth; thirdly, the conformity of the structure of production with the structure of consumption; fourthly, market equilibrium, the balance of aggregate demand and supply in the markets of goods, labor, services, technologies and loan capital, which must interact with each other.

The actual macroeconomic balance of the entire system, not subject to natural processes, inflation, business recession and bankruptcies, is ideal, theoretically desirable. Such an equilibrium is characterized by the complete optimality of the implementation of economic behavior and interests of subjects in all structural elements, sectors and areas of macroeconomics. However, to ensure this balance, a number of reproduction conditions are required (all individuals can find consumer goods on the market, and entrepreneurs can find factors of production, the entire social product must be sold, etc.). In the economic life of society, these conditions are usually not observed. Therefore, there is a real macroeconomic equilibrium, which is established in the economic system in conditions of imperfect competition and with external factors influencing the market.

However, the ideal economic equilibrium, which is abstract in nature, is necessary for scientific analysis. This macroeconomic equilibrium model makes it possible to determine the deviations of real processes from ideal ones, to develop a system of measures for balancing and optimizing the proportions of reproduction.

Thus, all economic systems strive for an equilibrium state. But the degree of approximation of the state of the economy to the ideal (abstract) macroeconomic equilibrium model depends on the socio-economic, political and other objective and subjective conditions of society.

There are the following models of macroeconomic equilibrium: classical and Keynesian.

Classical model of macroeconomic equilibrium dominated economic science for about 100 years, until the 30s of the XX century. It is based on J. Say's law: the production of goods creates its own demand. Each producer is also a buyer - sooner or later he acquires a product produced by another person for the amount received from the sale of his own product. Thus, macroeconomic equilibrium is provided automatically: everything that is produced is sold. This similar model assumes the fulfillment of three conditions:

each person is both a consumer and a producer;

all producers spend only their own income;

income is spent in full.

But in the real economy, part of the income is saved by households. Therefore, aggregate demand decreases by the amount of savings. Consumption spending is insufficient to purchase all of the products produced. As a result, unsold surpluses are formed, which causes a decline in production, an increase in unemployment and a decrease in income.

In the classical model, the lack of funds for consumption caused by saving is compensated by investment. If entrepreneurs invest as much as households save, then J. Say's law is valid, i.e. the level of production and employment remains constant. The main task is to encourage entrepreneurs to invest as much money as they spend on savings. It is solved in the money market, where supply is represented by savings, demand - by investments, price - by the interest rate. The money market self-regulates savings and investment with the help of the equilibrium interest rate (Fig. 2).

The higher the interest rate, the more money is saved (because the owner of the capital receives more dividends). Therefore, the savings curve (S) will be upward. The investment curve (I), on the other hand, is downward sloping because the interest rate affects costs and entrepreneurs will borrow more and invest more money at a lower interest rate. The equilibrium rate of interest (r 0) occurs at point E. Here the amount of money saved is equal to the amount of money invested, or, in other words, the amount of money offered equals the demand for money.

Figure 2 Classical model of the relationship between investment and savings

The second factor that ensures equilibrium is the elasticity of prices and wages. If, for some reason, the rate of interest does not change at a constant ratio of savings and investment, then the increase in savings is offset by lower prices, as producers seek to get rid of surplus products. Lower prices allow for fewer purchases while maintaining the same levels of output and employment.

In addition, a decrease in demand for goods will lead to a decrease in demand for labor. Unemployment will create competition and workers will accept lower wages. Its rates will decrease so much that entrepreneurs will be able to hire all the unemployed. In such a situation, there is no need for government intervention in the economy.

Thus, classical economists proceeded from the flexibility of prices, wages, and interest rates, i.e., from the fact that wages and prices can move freely up and down, reflecting the balance between supply and demand. According to them, the aggregate supply curve AS has the form of a vertical straight line, reflecting the potential output of GNP. A decrease in price entails a decrease in wages, and therefore full employment is maintained. There is no reduction in real GNP. Here, all products will be sold at different prices. In other words, a decrease in aggregate demand does not lead to a decrease in GNP and employment, but only to a decrease in prices. Thus, the classical theory believes that the economic policy of the state can only affect the price level, and not output and employment. Therefore, its intervention in the regulation of the volume of production and employment is undesirable.

The classics concluded that in a market self-regulating economy. Able to achieve both full output and full employment, government intervention is not required, it can only harm its efficient functioning.

Summarizing the above, we can conclude that the classical model of the equilibrium volume of production based on the law of J. Say assumes:

Absolute elasticity, flexibility of wages and prices (for factors of production and finished products);

Highlighting aggregate supply as the engine of economic growth;

Equality of savings and investments, achieved through free pricing in the money market;

The tendency to match the volume of aggregate supply and the potential of the economy, so the aggregate supply curve is represented by a vertical line;

The ability of a market economy, with the help of internal mechanisms, to self-balance aggregate demand and aggregate supply at full employment and full use of other factors of production.

Keynesian model.

In the early 1930s, economic processes no longer fit within the framework of the classical model of macroeconomic equilibrium. Thus, a decrease in the level of wages did not lead to a decrease in unemployment, but to its growth. Prices did not decrease even when supply exceeded demand. No wonder many economists criticized the position of the classics. The most famous of them is the English economist J. Keynes, who in 1936 published the work “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money”, in which he criticized the main provisions of the classical model and developed his own provisions for macroeconomic regulation:

1. Savings and investment, according to Keynes, are carried out by different groups of people (households and firms) guided by different motives, and therefore they may not coincide in time and in magnitude;

2. The source of investment is not only the savings of households, but also the funds of credit institutions. Moreover, not all current savings will end up in the money market, since households leave part of the money on hand, for example, to pay off bank debt. Therefore, the amount of current savings will exceed the amount of investments. This means that Say's law does not work and macroeconomic instability sets in: an excess of savings will lead to a reduction in aggregate demand. As a result, output and employment are reduced;

3. The interest rate is not the only factor influencing savings and investment decisions;

4. Lowering prices and wages does not eliminate unemployment.

The fact is that there is no elasticity of the ratio of prices and wages, since the market under capitalism is not completely competitive. Price cuts are hindered by monopolists-manufacturers, and salaries are prevented by trade unions. The classical argument that lowering wages in one firm would allow it to hire more workers turned out to be inapplicable to the economy as a whole. According to Keynes, a decrease in the level of wages causes a decline in incomes for the population and entrepreneurs, which leads to a decrease in demand for both products and labor. Therefore, entrepreneurs will either not hire workers at all, or will hire a small number.

So, the Keynesian theory of macroeconomic equilibrium is based on the following provisions. The growth of national income cannot cause an adequate increase in demand, since an increasing share of it will go to savings. Therefore, production is deprived of additional demand and is reduced, causing an increase in unemployment. Therefore, an economic policy that stimulates aggregate demand is needed. In addition, in conditions of stagnation, depression of the economy, the price level is relatively immobile and cannot be an indicator of its dynamics. Therefore, instead of the price, J. Keynes proposed to introduce the “sales volume” indicator, which changes even at constant prices, because it depends on the quantity of goods sold.

Keynesians believed that the government could increase GDP and employment by increasing government spending, which would increase demand and prices would remain almost unchanged as output increased. With an increase in GNP, there will be an increase in employment. Consequently, in the model of J. Keynes, macroeconomic equilibrium does not coincide with the potential use of production factors and is compatible with a decline in production, the presence of inflation and unemployment. If the situation of full use of factors of production is reached, then the aggregate supply curve will take a vertical form, i.e. actually coincides with the long-term AS curve.

Thus, the volume of aggregate supply in the short run depends mainly on the magnitude of aggregate demand. In conditions of underemployment of factors of production and price rigidity, fluctuations in aggregate demand cause, first of all, changes in the volume of output (supply) and only subsequently can be reflected in the price level. Empirical evidence supports this position.

It can be concluded that the most important provisions in the Keynesian theory of macroeconomic equilibrium are the following:

The most important factor determining the level of consumption, and, consequently, the level of savings, is the amount of income received by the population, and the level of investment is mainly influenced by the size of the interest rate. Since savings and investments depend on different and independent variables (income and interest rates), there may be a discrepancy between investment plans and savings plans;

Since savings and investments cannot automatically balance, i.e. in a market economy there is no mechanism that independently ensures economic stability; state intervention in the economic life of society is necessary;

The engine of economic growth is the effective aggregate demand, since in the short run the aggregate supply is a given value and is largely guided by the expected aggregate demand. For this reason, the state must, first of all, regulate the necessary volume of effective demand.

Summing up, we can conclude that both the classics and Keynesians did a lot for the knowledge of macroeconomic equilibrium, but, unfortunately, as practice has shown, the models of macroeconomic equilibrium built by them acted only for a short period of time, which, in my opinion, is not surprising, since at least economic laws are objective, but any decision in the economy, one way or another, is made by people, and they are subjective. Therefore, much remains to be done to create the conditions for macroeconomic balance to be maintained.

Economic theory: lecture notes Dushenkina Elena Alekseevna

4. Macroeconomic balance

Any economic system will function and develop successfully if the demand for goods and services produced in the country is equal to their supply, that is, if equilibrium is reached.

Aggregate demand includes: consumer spending (population's demand for goods and services); investment costs (demand of enterprises for means of production); public spending (purchases by the state of goods and services); net export spending.

The same laws apply to aggregate demand as to individual demand. It is influenced by the real volume of production and the price level (see Fig. 14).

Rice. 14. Dependence of aggregate demand on the price level and real volume of production

The aggregate demand curve AD has the same shape as the individual demand curve.

Aggregate demand is the relationship between the price level and the volume of national production. The law of demand, as applied to aggregate demand, means that the relationship between the real volume of production demanded and the general price level is inverse. Aggregate demand is influenced by various non-price factors:

1) changes in consumer spending, which in turn depend on changes in consumer income, expectations, changes in tax rates, consumer debt. A consumer's high level of indebtedness may force him to reduce his current consumption;

2) changes in investment costs, which depend on the introduction of new technologies, on the amount of taxes from enterprises, expected profits from investments, interest rates, the amount of excess capacity. For example, the introduction of new technologies may lead to increased investment costs;

3) changes in government spending, the increase in which leads to an increase in aggregate demand;

4) changes in spending on net exports.

Aggregate supply is a certain amount of goods and services offered for sale by the public and private sectors. Any economic system strives to achieve maximum output. It depends on factors such as the quantity and quality of labor used, capital goods, resources; technology, costs.

Aggregate supply depends on the volume of production and the level of prices, which should not only cover costs, but also provide profit with an increase in national production. A decrease in commodity prices leads to a reduction in production volumes, and the relationship between the price level and the volume of national production is direct. This dependence is graphically shown in Figure 15 as an aggregate supply curve, which consists of three sections:

Rice. 15. Aggregate supply curve

KL - at a certain price level, the volume of production can be increased at constant prices (for example, there are idle resources); this section is usually called Keynesian; it characterizes an economy in a state of depression;

MN - the potential level of production has been reached, i.e., with the full use of all resources; this section is called classical;

KM - in some industries, full employment has been achieved, while in others there is room for expansion; this section is called ascending.

In addition, a number of non-price factors also influence the aggregate supply:

1) labor productivity, with the growth of which there is an increase in aggregate supply;

2) prices for resources, the growth of which leads to an increase in production costs, and, consequently, to a reduction in aggregate supply;

3) legal norms, the change of which leads to a change in production costs:

a) changes in taxes (increasing the tax burden will reduce aggregate supply) and subsidies (increasing subsidies will expand aggregate supply);

b) state regulation.

Macroeconomic balance- the state of the national economy, when aggregate demand is equal to aggregate supply. The state of macroeconomic equilibrium is practically unattainable and its theoretical model is shown in Figure 16, where AD is the aggregate demand curve, AS is the aggregate supply curve. The intersection of these curves gives the point of macroeconomic equilibrium (theoretical), which means that at a given price level, the entire volume of the produced national product will be sold.

Rice. 16. State of macroeconomic equilibrium

Signs of macroeconomic balance:

1) compliance with general goals and real economic opportunities;

2) full use of all resources;

3) bringing the overall structure of production in line with the structure of consumption;

4) balance of supply and demand at the micro level;

5) free competition;

6) continuous development of the economy.

Consumption is the lifeblood of society. Money is spent on consumption, and the higher the level of development of society, the higher the level of consumption, and, consequently, the standard of living.

In economics, consumption is considered in the form of those monetary expenditures that the population spends on the purchase of goods and services. The higher the income level of the population, the higher the demand for goods and services. However, the structure of expenses in families with different incomes differs from each other. The higher the family income, the more money it spends on food (through the purchase of quality and expensive products) and the more money is spent on the purchase of non-food durables and luxury goods. Therefore, the national consumption model cannot be represented as a set of consumption of individual families. The German statistician E. Engel worked on the tasks of assessing and characterizing national consumption, who developed qualitative consumption models, which are commonly called Engel's laws - features of budget spending depending on changes in income. To characterize consumption, Engel introduced a function that characterizes the relationship between disposable income and consumption. Distinguish:

1) the function of consumption in the short term, when consumption is focused on meeting current needs, and saving is carried out by reducing consumption in the future;

2) the function of consumption in the long run;

3) income function, which takes into account different incomes of the population.

Savings and consumption form disposable income:

Saving + Consumption = Income

Saving aims to reduce current consumption and increase future consumption. Savings can be in the form of:

1) accumulation of cash (in national or foreign currency);

2) bank deposits;

3) acquisition of bonds, shares and other securities.

To assess the level of consumption and savings in economic theory, the following indicators are used:

1) the average propensity to consume APC is the share of total income that goes to consumption:

APC = Consumption / Income;

2) the average propensity to save APS is the share of total income that goes to savings:

APS = Saving / Income.

In addition to income, consumption and savings are affected by:

1) wealth (real estate and financial resources of families); as wealth increases, consumption increases and saving decreases;

2) the price level has a different effect on families with different incomes;

3) expectations of price increases lead to a situation where consumption increases and saving decreases;

4) consumer debt (if debt is high, then current consumption is reduced);

5) taxation (an increase in taxes leads to a reduction in both consumption and savings);

6) contributions to social insurance (an increase in contributions may cause a reduction in savings);

7) rush demand (leads to a sharp increase in consumption);

8) an increase in the supply of goods (leads to a reduction in savings).

The situation when aggregate demand is balanced by aggregate supply, i.e., static macroeconomic equilibrium is achieved, cannot be practically achieved. Market equilibrium is characterized by a dynamic model. Let us consider the main provisions of the models describing macroeconomic equilibrium.