Profession: futurist. Futurology: history and current state Scientist futurologist

There is such a rare profession - a futurologist. This is a specialist who is able to predict the future. People believe that this is possible only with the help of clairvoyance or divination cards. A futurologist is not a palmist and not another adventurous specialist. The specialty is quite serious, and the predictions of such an analyst are trustworthy. Let's figure out who is called a futurologist, what these people do, why their words are worthy of attention.

Futurology is science

Modern scientists face several challenges. They need to comprehensively study the phenomenon and describe its development over time. Futurology is a science that, on the basis of cause-and-effect relationships and established laws, predicts social development. Agree, this is the prediction of the future. The subject of study of futurology is very distant horizons. A specialist studies history, delves into the traditions of peoples and tries to understand where the social process is heading. In fact, a futurologist is an analyst who needs to link the achievements of several related branches of science. He must have a broad outlook, a serious knowledge base. The process of development of society is influenced, it would seem, by such trifles as habits laid down in childhood, common ways of interaction between individuals, images imposed by the media, and the like. That is, a futurologist is a specialist, so to speak, of a wide profile, possessing encyclopedic knowledge.

Subject of study

The question of where humanity is going has occupied philosophers at all times. Modern experts have not discovered anything new here. But they improved the method of studying the future. Do not wonder. Having understood who a futurist is, you will see for yourself that this analyst is not really engaged in forecasts. It is better to say right away that an analysis is being made of the underlying changes, their results and the likelihood of influencing processes. The name of this science comes from the English word futurum (future in translation). It is based on a scrupulous study of social trends affecting the state of countries and peoples. In order to influence events, it is necessary to understand them, to know the laws of behavior of people and collectives. This is what futurology does. It is based on the developments of mathematicians and sociologists, takes into account the achievements of economists, physicists, biologists and other industries. All this is only to understand how the situation will develop in one particular country and what it will give to humanity as a whole.

About the butterfly effect

It is impossible to understand who a futurologist is without explaining some of the nuances. The fact is that the direct, previously used analytics is now considered obsolete. as they say, stopped working in the last century. The processes in society are, of course, influenced by simple and well-known laws, but not to the full extent. And by the way, futurologists are only partially interested in them. They pay more attention to “sleeping” or unmanifested factors. These are some processes or phenomena that are only maturing, not yet influencing events. They are called "slumbering gnomes". These factors can spontaneously or under the influence of certain forces become active at any moment and affect all of humanity. A description is known of how the flapping of a butterfly's wings in America, for example, leads to a tsunami in the Indian Ocean. This is, of course, just a model. But it perfectly characterizes how the predictions of futurologists are formed. It is necessary to take into account a lot of nuances unknown to the general public, trace their relationships and understand what the interaction processes will lead to.

Profession futurologist

Before we consider the fruits of this branch of knowledge, it is necessary to describe the people involved in predicting and shaping the future. Who does this in real life? There are quite a few practitioners-futurologists in the West. We will describe some of them below. But not every scientist with a sufficient base will take on such a difficult task. The specialist must have creative thinking, excellent imagination, the ability to form unusual ideas on the verge of the possible. In addition, they have to be separated from outright fiction. Often, futurologists, by the way, draw their brilliant projects from literature. They make full use of the fruits of human genius, both past and present. Lastly, in order to advance in this profession, you must be able to rise above the ordinary, go beyond the generally accepted rules. And this, believe me, is more difficult than mastering the sciences.

How the forecast is formed

Let's give a diagram of the work of a futurologist. Let's say right away that it will be primitive, but it will give an understanding of the activities of this kind of specialist. There is a lot of talk these days about World War III. Naturally, the topic did not pass by the attention of specialists. How to understand what exactly can happen? To do this, you need to collect information about:

• likely participants;
• current potential;
• new development trends;
• traditions of peoples and political systems;
• estimated resources;
• the personalities of the leaders of the opponents.

The above is a common base used by the military. The futurologist also takes into account an unknown factor. For our topic, this may be, for example, the unexpected death of the leader of a country, for influence over which potential opponents are fighting. Or an uprising in any backward state where an important resource is located (a factory, a mining enterprise). Less obvious, visible to the layman from the media factors are also taken into account. Having collected all possible, the specialist begins their analysis, playing the situation. The conclusions, of course, will be multiple, limited by the theory of probability.

Ian Pearson

The most famous futurists regularly shock the public with their ideas. Many of them, by the way, use politics to attract the electorate. So, the Englishman Ian Pearson at the beginning of the century predicted that people would be able to experience the pleasures of love in the virtual space. Then the idea seemed incredible, now it no longer shocks anyone. He is also known for predicting that a person will be able to transfer consciousness into a computer after a certain time. By the way, programmers are seriously working in this direction, according to the media.

Predictions about solving the food problem

Many scientists are working on this serious issue. The population of the planets is growing and the resources are decreasing by a multiple. Futurologists have suggested paying attention to the world ocean, which has not yet been properly explored. Water, inhabited by rich flora and fauna, occupies most of the planet, and man does not really use it. Ian Pearson predicts that science will develop methods and related technologies that will make it possible to extract food from the ocean. This refers not only to fishing, but also to the processing of many types of algae, probably their industrial cultivation.

About World War III

The imagination of people is excited by the predictions of futurologists. It is interesting to know how our descendants will live, unless, of course, we all burn out in a nuclear fire. Perhaps the most popular ideas of futurists concern the possibility of a Third World War. They cannot say with certainty whether it will happen or not. It depends on the politicians and the military. But what it can be, futurologists talk a lot and with pleasure. In their opinion, human participation in the upcoming fights will be minimal. The fighters will lead the technical devices fighting among themselves. The military will be safe, which cannot be said about civilians. The flame of nuclear fires will fall on the heads of the ordinary population, and completely turn their world upside down. To the reassurance of the reader, even futurologists consider the likelihood of a major war to be minimal.

Just a few names

It is not possible to talk about all the ideas and research of futurologists in a short article. Some of their work is already being exploited by politicians in an ongoing information war. We will only name a few names so that the reader has an idea of ​​​​the personalities who created our present from a distant and not very past. The following futurologists are considered the most famous in the expert community: Huntington, Toffler, Fukuyama. You must have heard these names too. The activity of these people fascinates not so much with the content of forecasts as with the genius of approaches to the analysis of events. They, of course, need to be read far from retelling. Have you yourself tried to make a probabilistic forecast of the distant or near future? Share in the comments, let's discuss together.

Futurologists today call those who doing analytics. More precisely, they make predictions about future events based on a study of the current situation, as well as using information accumulated over previous decades.

As you know, everything in our world is cyclical, so there is no nothing supernatural that a person with good analytical skills is able to prepare a detailed report on the issue of interest to the customer, which will have a real basis and high chances of implementation.

And here we must remember that a futurologist is not a soothsayer. He doesn't need magical rituals or spirit connections to tell him how consumer demand or exchange rates will change in a few years. At the same time, no specialist will ever give 100% guarantee to your client, because it is simply unrealistic to accurately predict the future.

Forecasting is an extremely interesting activity. Probably, many of us have thought about what the planet will look like, relationships between people and other aspects directly related to man in 10 or 100 years.

The direction we choose today will determine the level of development in the future, which allows us to make certain assumptions. At the same time, a futurologist would not be superfluous to have a developed imagination. Although only a fool can call this person an inventor, some moments he has to think on your own.

Today, the profession of a futurologist is in high demand, especially in Western Europe or the USA. A vivid proof of these words is the formation of the Association of Futurologists, which appeared in 2015.

Forecasts for the future are becoming very popular today, because no one wants to lose a competitive advantage in the struggle for a market or in a banal attempt to make a living more comfortable and safer. In this, advanced technologies help futurologists in many ways, because progress today is taking place by leaps and bounds.

Thousands of large companies across the planet are already collaborating with their own in-house futurologists, and some of them go even further. They create entire departments of analysts whose experience and knowledge allow them to make very plausible forecasts.

It is known that such departments work in the largest corporations, for example, IBM. They are also used by CIA specialists, which only proves the effectiveness of forecasts, created by professionals.

Other companies do not have full-time futurologists, but this does not mean that they have abandoned such specialists altogether. It's just that instead of providing a regular job, futurologists are approached in a specific situation when they need to make a forecast for the future.

Since this area today is not amenable to standardization, almost every person has the opportunity to become a futurist. Naturally, this creates a certain negative around the profession, because many people simply want to get an enviable salary, amusing their own vanity.

But if we discard such a phenomenon, to combat which certain measures are already being taken today, then we can come to the conclusion that futurology is completely independent, and most importantly, very important science to understand the patterns within which our planet lives, and processes occur within society.

Each forecast is made thanks to huge amounts of information, the acceleration of processing of which has become possible thanks to the use of the Internet. It is enough for specialists to devote several weeks to the issue in order to study it in detail and provide expert opinion, starting from dozens of different markers and indicators.

For this reason, most futurologists today call themselves consultants, which allows them to avoid unnecessary questions about the complexities of their work. However, the changed term does not lead to any changes in the reshuffling of their core business.

In addition to the association, which was discussed above, today there is also a society and a federation of futurists that unite specialists from various countries of the world. Some representatives of the profession are not ready to speak openly about their activities, which is quite natural.

Indeed, for any futurologist it is very important not to make a mistake with the forecast, which can put his career in question. After all, it is difficult to understand how the situation will change due to dynamic factors that are constantly changing by the person himself. Therefore, it is important for a futurologist not only to look for correct information, but also constantly double-check your information, eliminating the possibility of errors or unaccounted for aspects.

Modern futurology arose as a development of genres science fiction and science journalism. Publicistic works about the future first began to appear in articles, utopias and works of art. Then special works “about the future” appeared: “Year 2066” (1866) by P. Harting (pseudonym - Dioscorides), “After a hundred years” (1892) by C. Richet, “Excerpts from Future History” (1896) by G. Tarda, “Tomorrow” (1898) and Garden Cities of the Future (1902) by E. Howard, a report on the future of chemistry by M. Berthelot, “Treasured Thoughts” (1904-1905) by D.I. Mendeleev, “Etudes on Human Nature” (1903) and "Etudes of Optimism" (1907) by I.I. Mechnikov.

The most significant and well-known of the works of this kind was the book of G. Wells "Foresight on the impact of the progress of mechanics and science on human life and thought" (1901). "Reflections on the Future" were continued in the 1920s in the West by many scientists. Futurological thought acquired a new development after the Second World War. Three factors contributed to this: first , intensification of the scientific and technological revolution and the emergence of concepts about its socio-economic consequences (J. Bernal and N. Wiener), secondly , development of exploratory and normative forecasting techniques, thanks to which forecasting was included in the management process; thirdly, the emergence of philosophical concepts of the future (industrialism, existentialism, structuralism, convergence theory).

In the 50s - early 60s, the works of G. Theil "Economic Forecasts and Decision Making" (1958 - 1965) and "Applied Economic Forecasting" (1966), O. Gelmer "Social Technology" (1966) appeared in the West, review work by E. Janch "Forecasting scientific and technological progress" (1966 - 1967).

At the same time, in the 50s, the development of philosophical, economic and sociological concepts began, which formed the ideological basis of futurology in the 60s and 70s. . Leading among them were theories of industrialism. The concepts of industrialism are based on the thesis that social progress is determined by the level of industrial development, usually expressed by the value of the gross national product (GNP) per capita. These ideas are presented in the works of W. Rostow “Stages of economic growth. Non-Communist Manifesto" (1960), J. Galbraith's "Affluent Society" (1958) and "The New Industrial Society" (1967); R. Arona "18 lectures on industrial society" (1962); D. Bell "Towards 2000" (1968), "Contradictions of the culture of capitalism" (1976) G. Kahn "Year 2000" and others.

In the 1970s, environmental issues came to the fore in future studies. It develops within "technological" and "anti-scientist" waves of futurology Scientists see the development of technology and scientific and technological progress as the main causes of a future environmental catastrophe. This problem is most acute in "apocalyptic" direction of futurology, whose representatives generally doubted the compatibility of the social consequences of scientific and technological revolution with the further existence of mankind. These ideas are developed, for example, in the works of O. Toffler "Futurshock" (1970), "Ecospasm" (1975), "The Third Wave" (1980).

In these works, Toffler shows how the social consequences of scientific and technological revolution destroy the familiar world, traditional social values, lead to an increase in drug addiction and crime, giving rise to a crisis in art, the media, and science. Before our eyes, the way of life of millions of people, the usual forms of organizing their work and life are changing. To meet this "futurshock" fully armed, it was proposed to develop "studies of the future", to start "educating the future" at school, universities, on television, to expand the practice of social experiments, creating a springboard for attacking the future.

In 1968, on the initiative of A. Peccei , prominent Italian industrialist and public figure, was created roman club, named after the location of its headquarters. Peccei invited 30 well-known scientists, businessmen and public figures of the West to regularly discuss issues raised by the "environmental", "technological" and "apocalyptic" waves of futurology.

In 1970, at a regular meeting of the club, an American scientist J. Forrester made a report on the experience of modeling social systems. The report made a great impression and was expanded into the book "World Dynamics" (1971), and a group of Forrester's young colleagues, headed by D. Meadows, was commissioned to study the problems of "global modeling" using computers.

In 1972, Meadows published a book "Limits to Growth", which was the first report to the Club of Rome. Forrester proposed (and the Meadows group implemented this proposal) to model the development of a number of important global socio-economic processes. The following processes were considered as such processes: the growth of world population, industrial production and food production, the depletion of mineral resources and increased pollution of the natural environment. Modeling showed that at the current growth rates of world population (over 2% per year, doubling in 33 years) and industrial production (in the 60s - 5-7% per annum, doubling in about 10 years) during the first decades 21st century mineral resources will be exhausted, production growth will stop, and environmental pollution will become irreversible.

To avoid this catastrophe and create a "global balance", the authors proposed to sharply reduce the rate of population growth and industrial production, reducing them to the level of simple reproduction of people and machines. This strategy has been called the concept of "zero growth".

In accordance with it, the standard of living, expressed by the value of the gross national product per capita, cannot serve as a generalized indicator of social progress. Forrester proposed another indicator of progress - "the quality of life"."Quality of life" is an integral indicator of population density, the level of industrial and agricultural production, the availability of mineral resources, pollution of the natural environment, the scale of stressful situations at work and at home, as well as the effectiveness of health care.

The authors of the first report suggested that the level and quality of life are inversely proportional: the higher the standard of living associated with the growth rate of industrial production, the faster natural resources are depleted and the natural environment is polluted, the higher the population density, the worse the state of health, the more stressful situations, etc.

· Limitations of a global approach that does not take into account significant differences between individual countries, especially between developed and developing countries. Meanwhile. the processes of population growth and industrial production, depletion of natural resources and environmental pollution in different countries are different.

· The erroneousness of the programs embedded in the computer, since they relied on the extrapolation of trends characteristic of the 60s. It is known that in the 70s, 80s and 90s these trends began to change.

· the one-sided use of modern forecasting tools - mainly exploratory forecasting was carried out, and normative forecasting was practically not developed.

In 1974 appeared second report of the Club of Rome and, accordingly, the book by M. Meserovich (USA) and E. Pestel (Germany) "Humanity at a Turning Point". The authors of the report tried to take into account the shortcomings of the first model. Thus, the global model was disaggregated into 10 regional ones (North America; Western Europe; Japan; other economically developed countries; Eastern Europe and the USSR; Latin America; North Africa and the Middle East; Tropical Africa; South and Southeast Asia; China).

The arsenal of modeling methods was expanded through the introduction of simulation and game tools. The normative aspect of the study has been strengthened. The focus was on the development of alternative regulatory and forecast scenarios for solving existing global problems (options for assistance to developing countries from the economically developed countries, settlement of relations between oil producing and consuming countries, options for solving the world food problem.

The general conclusion of the work: if the current trends continue, a catastrophe is expected in the next decade primarily in five developing countries of the world. Later, a crisis is also possible in economically developed countries. Recommendations: move to the concept of "organic growth" (instead of the concept of "zero growth"), differentiating growth rates depending on the level of development of the country with a significant increase in assistance to developing countries and speeding up the solution of the world food problem.

In 1976, following the results third report to the Club of Rome the book of the research group led by J. Tinbergen (Netherlands) is published "Revisiting the International Order".

Tinbergen writes about the restructuring of international economic relations between developed and developing countries. Conclusion: under existing trends, in the coming decades, the gap between developed and developing countries will increase to catastrophic proportions with the threat of a complete collapse of the economy of the latter, the death of hundreds of millions of people from starvation and serious complications in international relations in general.

Recommendations: Significantly increase financial and food assistance to developing countries through subsidies, loans and trade in order to speed up the industrialization of these countries and optimize the economy based on the cessation of the arms race.

In 1977 appeared fourth report to the Club of Rome- a book by a research group led by E. Laszlo (USA) "Goals of Humanity". The attention of the authors is focused almost entirely on the normative side of forecasting. The book consists of three parts. The first deals with regional aspects of goal-setting in the eight largest regions of the world (North America; Western Europe; USSR and Eastern Europe; East Asia; Latin America; Africa and the Near and Middle East; India and Southeast Asia; Australia and Oceania). Separately, the goals of the largest international organizations, multinational corporations and the main world churches were considered.

The second part is devoted to goal-setting in the field of international security, food, energy and mineral resources, and general global development. Particular attention is drawn to the gap between goals of different profiles and levels.

Fifth report to the Club of Rome was featured in the book "Beyond the Age of Waste"(1978), prepared by a research group led by D. Gabor (Great Britain) and W. Colombo (Italy). The report is devoted to the problems and prospects of depletion of the world's mineral resources. Conclusion: the action in the future of the observed trends will inevitably lead to the collapse of the existing world fuel and energy and material and raw materials balance.

Recommendations: to optimize the balance sheets by maximizing the share of renewable energy and mineral resources in them with the strictest economy, the introduction of closed production cycles, and the repeated use of secondary raw materials .

Sixth report to the Club of Rome- book "There are no limits to learning"(1979), prepared by a group of authors consisting of: J. Botkin (USA), M. Elmanajra (Morocco) and M. Malica (Romania). It is devoted to the promising problems of education, which, according to the authors, can significantly reduce the gap in the level of culture of people from different social groups, countries and regions of the world. Recommendations: to radically reform the education system, focusing it on the actual modern problems of mankind, on understanding the global nature of these problems, and at the same time seriously improving the learning process through the introduction of new, more progressive methods.

Over the following years, reports to the Club of Rome appear annually, however, along with the problems of global modeling, there are more and more works devoted to the political, legal and organizational aspects of global problems. This trend is typical for the development of forecasting in general.

So, the prerequisites for the development of futurology were created in science fiction, the ideological foundations of futurology are laid in the theory of industrialization. Allocate "technological", "environmental", "anti-scientist", "apocalyptic" waves of futurology. The most important stage in the development of futurology was the activity of the Club of Rome. The most famous is the first report of the Club of Rome "World Dynamics" (J. Forrester, 1970). Currently, within the framework of the Club of Rome, along with the problems of global modeling, there are more and more works devoted to the political, legal and organizational aspects of global problems..

!Task 3. List the factors that led to the emergence of futurology.

!Task 4. The dynamics of the development of what socio-economic processes did Forrester use as the basis of global modeling?

§3. Evolution of views on planning in the context of confrontation between economic development models

Understanding the role of planning in social management is impossible outside the context of the analysis of the dispute between liberals and statesmen, which comes from the time of Adam Smith. Liberals talk about the inefficiency of state intervention in the economy, about the economy not controlled by the state, providing the market, in its functioning, to itself. The liberals are opposed by statesmen who advocate the regulation of the economy and the market, which, in their opinion, is not at all perfect and infallible: market equilibrium is illusory, and the market corrects mistakes at the cost of crises and a slowdown in development.

The extreme version of the implementation of the ideology of statehood was command and control system management of the economy and society that existed in the Soviet Union. It was within the framework of this system that state planning was the most important tool for the development of society. Conceptually, the possibility of a planned economy was substantiated by K. Marx. He proceeded from the assumption that the socialization of the means of production would "remove" the contradiction between labor and capital, between the social character of production and the private form of appropriation, which gives rise to crises and class struggle. This socialization, i.e. the transfer of all means of production into the hands of one subject - the state, will allow the latter to control the processes of production and consumption and plan the development of the economy and society. An example of the implementation of this doctrine was the seven-year and five-year plans in the Soviet Union, which set the main vector for the development of society.

In countries with market economies, ideas of strengthening state influence were also developed, opposing classical liberal views. They first appeared in the economic theory of J. M. Keynes and were developed by his followers within the framework of Keynesianism, neo-Keynesianism and post-Keynesianism. This direction was opposed by liberal theories: monetarism, neoliberalism, neoclassical revival theory, institutionalism etc. Let us consider the main stages of this confrontation.

Keynesianism appeared in the 1930s as a reaction of economic theory to the Great Depression in the United States. The seminal work was The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by John Maynard Keynes, published in 1936. The essence of his theory was expressed in the following. A market economy is not characterized by an equilibrium that ensures full employment. The reason is the tendency to save a part of income, which leads to the fact that aggregate demand is less than aggregate supply. It is impossible to overcome the propensity to save. Therefore, the state should regulate the economy by influencing aggregate demand by increasing the money supply, lowering interest rates (stimulating investment activity). The lack of demand should be compensated by public works and budget financing.

þ Keynes built the following chain: a drop in overall consumer demand causes a reduction in the production of goods and services. The reduction in production leads to the ruin of small commodity producers, to the dismissal of employees by large enterprises, and large-scale unemployment. Unemployment entails a decrease in the income of the population, that is, buyers. And this, in turn, forces a further decline in consumer demand for goods and services. There is a vicious circle that keeps the economy in a state of chronic depression. According to Keynes, if the mass consumer is not able to revive aggregate demand on the scale of the national economy, this should be done by the state. If the state makes a large order to enterprises, this will lead to additional hiring of labor from these firms. By receiving wages, the former unemployed will increase their spending on consumer goods, and, accordingly, will increase aggregate economic demand. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in the aggregate supply of goods and services, and a general recovery of the economy.

In the works of Keynes, the concept multiplier. The Keynes multiplier (or the accumulation multiplier, the Keynes multiplier) is a coefficient equal to the reciprocal of the marginal propensity to save (MPS) - 1 / PSS or the reciprocal of the difference between unity and the marginal propensity to consume (PSP) - 1 / (1-PSP). This coefficient shows how much the national income will increase as a result of the initial investment.

Under the influence of Keynesianism, most economists came to believe in the usefulness and necessity of macroeconomic policy for long-term growth, reducing inflation and the threat of recessions.

The emergence of Keynes' economic theory is called the "Keynesian revolution". From the 40s to the first half of the 70s of the 20th century, the concept of John. M. Keynes occupied a dominant position in government and academic circles in the most developed industrial countries of the West. The concept put forward and defended by Keynes provides for the active intervention of the state in economic life. Keynes did not believe in a self-regulating market mechanism and believed that external intervention in the process of economic development was necessary to ensure normal growth and achieve equilibrium.

The main features of the Keynesian model of regulation are:

• the share of national income is high and redistributed through the state budget;
• an extensive zone of state entrepreneurship is being created on the basis of the formation of state and mixed enterprises;
• fiscal and credit-financial regulators are widely used to stabilize the economic environment, smooth out cyclical fluctuations, maintain high growth rates and a high level of employment;
• in the regulation of the economy, methods of planning and programming the economy are widely used;
• the degree of legal regulation of economic relations is increasing, primarily in the field of labor use, price regulation, antimonopoly policy

& Thus, US President F. Roosevelt applied purely Keynesian recipes: production planning, an increase in budget spending, and expansion of the domestic market. Markets were assigned to producers, control over large monopolies was introduced, public works were introduced (construction of power plants, warships, roads, housing, etc.), farmers sold products at parity prices, investment banks were created with a status different from commercial banks and regulated by the state interest on a loan for investment.

In the postwar years, Keynesianism has undergone significant changes. The basic model of J. M. Keynes was static; he considered the economy in the short run, the parameters of production in this period did not change. Such a theory solved the problems of the 30s of the crisis years of the 20th century, when the problems of long-term growth were not in the first place. After the Second World War, the situation changed: the economy was stimulated by military spending and showed unprecedented rates of development; it was necessary to have long-term growth in connection with the competition with the socialist countries. It was necessary to create a theory of economic growth and cyclical development. Keynesian theory of economic growth designed by Roy Harrod, neo-Keynesian cycle theory developed by Alvin Hansen.

American Keynesians added the concept of the multiplier the concept of the accelerator. Accelerator, i.e. an accelerator is an indicator that characterizes the feedback between national income and investment. The accelerator shows how many times capital investment must increase to achieve a specific growth rate of national income.

Based on the combination of the concepts of the multiplier and the accelerator, the American Keynesians created concept of "cumulative process", according to which, depending on the ratio of these two indicators, the dynamics of national income can take either a uniform or a cyclical character.

Keynes's ideas about state regulation of the economy were also accepted in France. However, here they have been interpreted differently by different scientists. French researchers, in particular F. Perroux, focused on the application indicative method of economic planning. Without denying the importance of the market mechanism and competition in its regulation, supporters of the concept of indicative planning gave priority to state regulation through the programming of the country's economic development. The basis of such programming was the system of national accounts and state plans of a recommendatory nature. The development and adoption of national development plans, according to Perroux, must be carried out with the help of agreements, compromises and "social dialogues" of different classes.

According to the Keynesian scheme, developed countries successfully built their economies for 25 years. However, simultaneously with the successful practical implementation of the ideas of Keynesianism after the Second World War, it begins to revive and neoclassical school. Neoclassical representatives point to the contradictions of regulating the economy by Keynesian methods and insist that the socialist economy is less efficient than the market. In the 1970s, this criticism received practical confirmation. Macroeconomic policy problems began to emerge in the early 1970s, exacerbated by the 1973 oil crisis.

During this period, the macroeconomic situation also changed, and the negative consequences of the increased presence of the state in the economy began to accumulate. The bureaucracy has grown significantly. The inefficiency of the work of state enterprises was revealed. The growing state budget deficit caused by the government's expansionist policy, the increase in public debt led to serious financial problems and an increase in inflation. The manipulation of tax and interest rates increased the unpredictability of the economy and caused capital flight abroad. Widespread methods of direct regulation and administration fettered business, reduced incentives for entrepreneurial activity. A high degree of social protection reduced the incentives to work. Economic growth has stopped. There was stagflation.

In this situation, during the years of the economic crisis, the neoclassicists return as the mainstream of economic thought, displacing the Keynesians. One of the new offshoots, which has the strongest positions at the present time, has become monetarism(founder - Professor of the University of Chicago Milton Friedman). M. Friedman proposed the so-called "monetary rule" ("Friedman's rule"), according to which states should increase the money supply, focusing on a smoothed long-term growth of real gross national product, that is, according to his calculations, by 3-4% per year. An increase in the money supply beyond this, according to Friedman, leads to inflation, while Keynes believed that money can stimulate business activity and cause an increase in production.

The theoretical concept of monetarism was put in the late 70s - 80s in the basis of the economic policy of US President R. Reagan and British Prime Minister M. Thatcher. In the 1970s and 1980s, tough reforms were carried out aimed at reducing the role of the state in the economy, and full-scale privatization was carried out in a number of countries. Neoclassicists put forward the idea that the main way to regulate the economy can only be monetary policy or the policy of regulating the money supply.

In the monetarist concept, the effectiveness of state forecasting and planning is questioned. Thus, representatives of the Austrian school L. Mises and F. Hayek consistently criticize any interference in the freedom of economic decisions, including socialism or state regulation according to Keynesian recipes. They believed that the choice of individual individuals cannot be predicted, planned, predicted. The choice is influenced by too many individual factors. That is why there is no way to predict or predict the development of the economy. Any state intervention in market mechanisms only leads to deterioration. Based on this, the concept of J. M. Keynes, which assumed a forecast based on the study of macroeconomic indicators, was considered unacceptable in the Austrian school.

Subsequently, modern monetarism suffered the same fate as Keynesianism: after a meteoric rise, a period of critical evaluation, disappointment, and attempts at improvement began. This can be explained by the fact that the emergence of modern monetarism in its extreme manifestation (the idea of ​​the "Chicago school") was an attempt to answer only one local problem of economic development - to find a way out of the inflationary impasse in which the capitalist economy found itself in the 60-70s. , just as Keynesianism was also looking for an answer to one local problem, but related to overcoming unemployment and economic recession, which faced capitalist society on the verge of the 1920s and 1930s.

In the modern economy, the described confrontation persists. The need for state regulation is defended by representatives post Keynesianism. In the field of economic policy, post-Keynesians act as supporters of further improvement of the mechanism of regulation of the capitalist economy. They pay great attention to the issue of controlling inflation, which, in their opinion, cannot be controlled using traditional methods of limiting demand, sacrificing growth and employment for this. Traditional anti-inflationary methods of budgetary and credit policy, they argue, should be supplemented by a fair "income policy" formed as a result of an agreement by all interested parties on the pace of income growth. However, "income politics" is not self-sufficient in the program of post-Keynesians. They are in favor of linking it with the policy of economic growth as a whole, including the policy that determines the pace and structure of investment. And this means, according to them, the need for a nationwide planning, which is designed to give state regulation the centralization, coordination and long-term that it lacks.

On the other hand, developing neoliberal views. The principles of neoclassical ideas are reflected in neoliberal theories and theories of economic growth, and are used as a methodological basis for research to determine the limits of the regulatory influence of the state. The ideas of conservatism are embodied in a number of economic theories, including theories of "rational expectations" and "economics of proposition".

The doctrines of the "neoclassical revival" are characterized by extreme radicalism, they deny the need for state intervention in the economy. They proceed from the fact that the development of the capitalist system is predetermined by internal incentives for economic development; the main value is not social justice, but freedom; the guarantor of general freedom is economic freedom, which is identified with the market, competition.

However, not all modern concepts have marked radicalism. Many theoretical models have acquired synthetic forms that include elements common to both sides of the dispute. Appearance synthetic theories was due to a number of factors. When the economy of the Western world in the 1970s and 1980s began a gradual, even growth in the absence of high inflation, it turned out that the local problems that were relevant to Keynesians and monetarists not only disappeared, but were transformed into chronic ones. Inflation and unemployment are constantly "present" in a market economy, threatening to "blow up" its mechanism in one or the other direction, or even in both at once. In order to prevent threats, the market economy in the new conditions must be influenced in a complex way - taking into account the possibility of a surge in both inflation and unemployment and stagnation. Neither Keynesian nor monetarist recipes in their pure form were suitable for this, which determined the process of interpenetration of these ideas, formation of the Keynesian-monetarist synthesis as a new stage in the development of monetary theory.

According to the modern Keynesian-neoclassical synthesis, the monetary and fiscal policies pursued by the federal government provide it with significant control over nominal GNP. Today, most economists already recognize the active influence of the quantitative factor (money supply - M) on the course of processes in the real economy in the short term and on the price level (and inflation) in the long term. They also recognize the important role of the state in regulating the economy, but they place the emphasis somewhat differently when determining the mechanism of regulation. Some of them pay more attention to the active direct impact on the real sector of the economy through the mechanism of fiscal policy, which gives grounds to accuse them of being Keynesian. The latter, without rejecting the role of fiscal policy, prefer the monetary mechanism in economic regulation, which indicates their great sympathy for monetarism. Together, they all recognize the acceptability of moderate inflation, its positive impact on the development of the real economy, and the ability of central banks to regulate the money supply (M) at an adequate level of moderate inflation.

Representatives of both directions of monetary theory agree that it is difficult to stop the inflationary spiral, that it is easier to prevent it than to overcome it later. Therefore, they are unanimous in the fact that each country should work out such a monetary policy strategy that would not allow inflation to get out of control. There comes an understanding that both the forms and the scale of state intervention in the economy are not given once and for all and change depending on the specific conditions of the country. Under normal conditions, each country develops an optimal measure of state regulation for the given conditions. People often talk about the pendulum nature of the choice of the economic course.

& Yes, at the end of the 19th century. the American historian G. Adams revealed a regular alternation of economic and political processes. The swing of the pendulum was determined by him at the age of 12. Life confirms this. Only the swing of the pendulum usually takes longer to gain height: liberalism is replaced by a socially oriented economy, and vice versa, nationalization - privatization and denationalization, recovery - recession, and then recovery (in accordance with the phases of the crisis), etc. The same is confirmed by large cycles of the conjuncture N. Kondratieva. Naturally, any pattern acts as a trend and its direction is capable of correcting people's activities, otherwise it would be useless to look for ways to improve life.

Thus, the assessment of the possibility and effectiveness of state planning differ depending on the economic model. The greatest importance was attached to state planning in the command-administrative model of the economy. The ideas of state regulation and state planning in a market economy appeared in the theory of J.M. Keynes and were developed by his followers within the framework of Keynesianism, neo-Keynesianism and post-Keynesianism. Representatives of neo-Keynesianism have developed and developed a model of indicative planning. This direction is opposed by liberal theories: monetarism, neoliberalism, the theory of neoclassical revival, institutionalism. These theories, in their extreme manifestations, deny the possibility and effectiveness of planning at the state level. Modern economic theories are characterized by both radical points of view on the role, content and scope of state regulation of the economy as a whole and state planning, as well as attempts at conceptual synthesis

!Task 5. Imagine the factors behind the emergence of the Keynesian-neoclassical synthesis in modern economic theory.

Test questions:

1. Show the fundamental difference between cyclic and linear religious concepts of the future.

2. Why do anti-utopias appear along with utopian projects?

3. What varieties of cycle theory can you name?

4. Give arguments supporting and refuting the theory of progress.

5. Do you agree with P. Sorokin's statement about the absence of worldwide laws of natural history? Justify your answer.

6. Is there a connection between religious and philosophical-historical ideas about the future? What is she like?

7. What literary genres served as prerequisites for the emergence of modern futurology and why?

8. Is there a trend in the development of the problems of the "Club of Rome"? What is she like?

9. What indicator did Forrester propose to assess the level of social progress? Do you agree with the introduction of such a criterion? Justify your answer.

10. What economic models are developed within the framework of liberal theories?

11. What is the role of planning in Keynesian economic models

12. List the main features of the Keynesian macroeconomic model?

13. What is the essence of indicative planning?

Psychologies: Is it possible to explain in a clear and simple language what futurological thinking is?

Oh sure. It's like history, but about the future. At school, in history lessons, we were often repeated phrases like: "A people who do not remember their history are doomed to repeat mistakes." But today we have the ability to predict the future a little more accurately than just saying: "Nothing will change, everything will be as it was." Thanks to the development of social sciences - sociology, political science, economics, psychology - and management sciences, today we better understand how society develops, better understand the laws of this development.

Let me give you an example: it was found that most companies begin to die after 10-20 years of their existence. Any company in any country does not last long. Now there are practically no organizations that have existed for a very long time. At the same time, cities, if we also consider them as a certain structure, organization, exist for a very long time, and at the same time they do not die.

But still, long-lived companies do exist. It turns out that certain conditions are simply needed for this?

There are few such companies. And there are practically none that have existed for at least a hundred years. At the same time, cities exist for some reason for a very long time - Rome, Paris, Berlin ... Rome, after the fall of the Roman Empire, it would seem, died: everyone left the city, the population was zero, there were no food supplies ... but then people returned anyway. The larger the cities, the more efficient they are. This means that we can predict what will happen to parts of society. This is part of the foundation on which futurology stands.

The first reason why futurology is important is that we need to somehow navigate our future.

For an ordinary person, futurology is still important in that now there are no such precise landmarks as there were in the past, for example, two hundred years ago. Then every country had a dominant culture, a set of values, and specially trained people to whom you could come and say: “My father, tell me, how should I live my life?” And he answered: “From Monday to Saturday you do this, on Sunday you do this. Here are all your instructions." This trend persisted for a very long time, it was also relevant in the middle of the 20th century.

But then what Friedrich Nietzsche called "the death of God" happened: in modern culture, primarily in Western culture, this unambiguous landmark disappeared. Traditional institutions have been preserved, but a person has a huge choice: you can go to an Orthodox priest, a Buddhist, you can not go to anyone, you can read popular science articles on a topic of interest. There is no more certainty.

What should modern man be guided by?

This is the first reason why futurology is important: we need to somehow navigate the future. Previously, everything was clear: you will be the same as it was with your father, grandfather, great-grandfather. Everyone was a blacksmith, and you will be a blacksmith. And your last name is also Kuznetsov. But today we understand that things are changing, and not always for the better.

To form such an understanding, tools are needed, and it is desirable that we master them at school. This process has already begun: there are futurological projects and congresses in schools. In Kazan, for example, the Talent University is engaged in the upbringing, training, and coordination of gifted children. During the two-day session, specialists together with the children come up with what they would like to do in life. And there are also very young children from elementary school. At this age, the child begins to form an image of what he wants to do in the future.

Goals should not be set for a month or a year, as most people do, but for 10, 20, 30 years ahead

In this regard, classical futurology fulfills the task: children know about robots, flights to Mars, even about cryonics. I gave a lecture in Yekaterinburg about the professions of the future, and after the lecture the children had to choose what they want to do. 80% chose professions one way or another connected with immortality, revival. And that's okay. Previously, we could offer children only the explanation “Your dog is now in heaven with your great-grandmother”, now there are alternative options that are more useful.

What other reasons make this science important?

The second reason can be formulated as follows: the ability to predict life. Now the anti-aging direction is developing very actively, scientists are working on life extension. If you know that you can live a hundred years, how will you use this information? What if you have a thousand years?

It doesn’t matter what social level a person is on, how much money or power he has. You need to decide what to do next, how to plan your life and activities. You can change your profession at any time in life, until we are near death. You can comprehend the world that surrounds us, determine the goal, understand what skills and resources are lacking to achieve it. At the same time, goals should not be set for a month or a year, as most people do, but for 10, 20, 30 years ahead. And say to yourself: “I want to do this and I will try until I succeed.”

Are there special techniques by which a person can predict the success or failure of his undertakings?

Of course. The first point: you need to develop a serious approach to work. This does not mean that you need to choose a fashionable or prestigious profession. You need to understand what your career path will allow you to achieve in twenty years. Now people rarely choose this approach. A similar level of conscious and responsible approach can be observed, for example, in cosmonauts who have been studying for years, must constantly monitor their physical fitness and health, undergo selection programs, etc. But such an approach could be adopted by everyone, not only astronauts.

Any person who wants to work in the technologies of the future can go to study - independently or at the correspondence department, for this it is not even necessary to quit your job. And after some time - for example, after three years - you can already choose a new profession and begin to develop in it.

The second point: you need to think about global forecasting, and here it is quite difficult to build the future on your own - you need to have a lot of information that is not exactly hidden, but not particularly distributed. This is information about how society is managed, in which direction it is moving, how complex systems work in general, for example, cities - what we talked about at the very beginning. It has to be collected bit by bit, and much still depends on how the society in which a person lives relates to this or that idea.

For example, in most countries people have a very conservative idea of ​​the life trajectory and its finiteness. Please note: in almost all Hollywood films and cartoons, immortal characters are negative. The one who strives for immortality and prolongation of life is bad. This can be seen even in Star Wars. Of course, there are films that contradict this idea, but in general one gets the feeling that some secret censorship committee forbids talking about how people can live long and still do well.

If we want to be in charge of our future, we need to take as much information about it as possible.

When a person thinks about how to develop a career, where he wants to live and what to do, this is also part of futurology. It is important for everyone to understand whether we want to take responsibility for our future. After all, you can not take it, but rely on, for example, pension funds, another question is whether it is worth hoping for. You don't have to be an advanced analyst to make predictions. If we want to be in charge of our future, we need to take as much information about it as possible. For some, these are ten articles in scientific journals, for some, a radio broadcast, for others, one book on futurology.

It is important to identify reference points for yourself - to understand what result you want to achieve in 10, 20, 30 years. If there is such a plan, a person will rely on it. This does not mean that everything will work out by itself, but at least it will give a context in which to act. Today we have access to almost any knowledge. You can develop yourself if you understand in which direction you want to move. You can learn to approach your future rationally.

Is this taught in your courses?

Yes, we have, for example, a short but intense applied rationality course: we teach people to develop rational skills and apply them both in work and in personal life. This helps to correctly assess what is happening and identify options for behavior. People who try to figure it out on their own usually come up with some popular planning and time management methods, install an application on their phone, tick off it. But it doesn't work that easy. Several levels of planning and analysis are needed. And it is necessary and useful for any person.

You need at least a little independence and a desire to make informed decisions, and not rely on someone else's advice.

The classic and most interesting piece in applied rationality is Bayes' theorem, the conditional probability theorem. For example, a person receives the result of an analysis for some disease. But the result can be false positive and false negative. In order to calculate what is the probability of getting this or that result, one must first understand what is the general probability of such a disease in a particular person. If, for example, this probability is 1 in 100,000, then the probability of a false positive result is much higher.

But most people don't think like that, they haven't been taught that. And they taught that homeopathy works and “it helped a neighbor, so I need it the same way.” Not knowing how to calculate probabilities, a person incurs losses.

How difficult is it to master? Is it necessary to be a mathematician or a physicist, or is rational thinking available to everyone?

We have a course on Applied Rationality, which is designed for 3-4 lessons, one lesson per week. There are face-to-face groups, they are focused on completely different people and will suit the “ordinary” person from the street. After completing the course, a person receives the skills of rational thinking, a practical result. With any task you need to be able to work. But for this you need at least a little independence and a desire to make informed decisions, and not rely on someone else's advice.

It turns out that this is such a skill to ask yourself the right questions and look for the right information?

Yes. And based on this information, build a predictive model: “If I do this, then this will happen.” Then a person is taught to work with preferences - after all, there are judgments about the world, but there are preferences. Judgments about the world need to be able to check and understand how they are connected. And preferences are the ability to simulate different options for the future in your head and understand what you like. For example, when a child graduates from school and does not know what he wants to be, this means that he does not know how to work with his preferences.

Many adults also do not know how to work with preferences.

Yes, because they weren't taught it. They don’t know what they want and use template solutions: “I want a bigger salary, I want a seaside vacation, I want to buy this, I want to learn something.” But at the same time, a person does not understand what kind of life he would like to live in the next five years. Many people cannot dream about something because they do not understand how to work with a library of possible desires. And the best thing they can do is stumble upon a list of “100 things you must do in your life” in some blog and try to complete all the points: skydive, go to Las Vegas, but this is not the wisest an approach. Our time resource is limited, which means that if we want to live meaningfully, we need to choose fifteen of these hundred points. And take your choice seriously.

Recent studies have shown that more than half of people believe that they are engaged in meaningless work. Clerks, officials, low-level managers who fulfill various bureaucratic requirements do not understand the existing alternative, do not understand what to do with the sense of meaninglessness. They find themselves in a kind of trap. And to get out of it, you need to be able to ask yourself basic questions.

How do you learn to ask these basic questions?

The starting point can be a description of the past, present and future of our world. There should be some basic model that describes what seems to a person the most important and interesting. Let's say for someone it's nature. And this person starts reading a book about ecology, about the effect of pesticides and chemicals. Read it and say: "I want to save our world from such problems." For another person, it will be a book about education and science, for a third - about space. But in any case, there must be some kind of frame.

There are forecasts according to which many professions that were recently considered in demand will lose their relevance in the future.

And then a person begins to compare: he imagines the world in which he would like to live, understands what he likes and what not. And then it is already possible to set practical goals, they determine questions and solutions. And these questions and solutions should arise in my head today. The same example with space, where many people dream of flying. You can just dream about it, or you can figure out how the space industry is developing in general, what are the ways to ever be on a spaceship. It will also matter in which country a person lives and who works. Having outlined several points, a person will create a frame for himself, will be able to evaluate his success in moving towards the goal.

For me, for example, the most important and interesting are the issues of immortality and the strengthening of the intellect, as well as omnipotence, building a utopia, security, singularity. But this is a fairly wide frame, it requires a developed futurological skill.

And if you set a more “everyday” frame, for example, about raising children, education, career, what advice can you give to people who do not know about futurology?

In fact, these themes are interrelated. Already now there are forecasts according to which many professions that were considered in demand quite recently will lose their relevance in the future. For example, a lawyer. Therefore, if parents think what to prepare a child for, you need to study the professions of the future. You can simply enter this phrase into a search engine, you can look at the Skolkovo Atlas of Professions.

Futurology implies a high level of desire to be responsible for your own life not only now, in the moment, but also in the future

You need to understand that the professions to which we are accustomed will either no longer be relevant for our children, or the paths to these professions will be different. For example, agriculture is here to stay, but what you need to study in this area is not what you studied 50 or 20 years ago.

Now there are a huge number of methods of intensive training, which can begin almost from the age of 1-2 years. You need to know what technologies are available and how to use them. Just giving your child a tablet or smartphone is a bad idea. It is more interesting and productive to use some kind of biofeedback devices, to experiment with neural interfaces.

It used to be a popular idea that the baby in the womb should be allowed to listen to classical music. And now you can use direct magnetic stimulation of the brain, substances that during pregnancy have a positive effect on the future intelligence of the child - make it not just “normal”, but “above average”. This can and should be read in open sources, this is not secret information.

Futurology implies a high level of desire to be responsible for one's own life not only now, in the moment, but also in the future. And this is what you can learn - to see yourself in the future, to understand what needs to be done for this future now. This is the responsibility for yourself, your family and your life.

About the expert

Ideologist and one of the founders of the Russian transhumanist movement, futurist. More details on the website.

All philosophers, prophets and religious thinkers have tried to predict the future since ancient times: Plato, Aristotle, biblical prophets, Isaiah, John the Evangelist, Nostradamus, etc.

The first attempts at scientific forecasts date back to the end of the 19th century: "Germany in 2000" () Georg Ehrmann, "The Future War and Its Economic Consequences" () Ivan Stanislavovich Blioch, "Outline of the Political and Economic Organization of the Future Society" () Gustav de Molinari, "Anticipations" () by H. G. Wells. In the 1920s and 30s, John Haldane's book Daedalus, or Science and the Future () was influential.

The term "futurology" was proposed by the sociologist Ossip K. Flechtheim in 1943, in a letter to Aldous Huxley, who enthusiastically accepted it and put it into circulation.

Futurology methods

The main methods used in futurology can be divided into four groups:

• Surveys of experts aimed at identifying a common opinion using the Delphi method or questionnaires.
• Statistical methods such as extrapolation, probabilistic analysis, regression and correlation analysis.
• Searching for analogies of the future with existing systems and drawing up scenarios for the future.
• Role-playing games, simulations, negotiations and other methods of group work on planning and predicting the future.

Extrapolation is just one of many methods and techniques used in studying the future (such as scenarios, Delphi, brainstorming, morphology, and others). Futurology also includes the consideration of such matters as normative or desirable futures.

Futurologist uses inspiration and exploration in varying proportions. This term excludes those who predict the future in supernatural ways, as well as those who predict the near future or easily predictable scenarios (for example, economists who predict changes in interest rates over the next business cycle are not futurologists, unlike those who who predicts the relative wealth of nations in a generation).

Some authors have been recognized as futurologists. They researched trends (especially technological ones) and wrote books about their observations, conclusions, and predictions. At first, they followed the following order: they published their conclusions, and then they took up research for a new book. More recently, they've started consulting groups or made a living from public speaking. Alvin Toffler, John Naisbitt, and his ex-wife Patricia Ebourdine are three notable examples of this class. Many business gurus also present themselves as futurists.

Futurologists share a number of similarities with science fiction writers, and some writers are perceived as futurologists or even come up with futurological papers (eg Arthur C. Clarke, Stanislav Lem). Other writers often reject this label. For example, in her introduction to The Left Hand of Darkness, Ursula Le Guin wrote that divination is the business of prophets, clairvoyants, and futurists, not writers: "the business of a writer is to lie."

Some attempts have been made in the field of cosmological futurology regarding the prediction of the far future of the entire universe, usually predicting its heat death or "big crunch".

Futurists have a very controversial reputation and success story. For obvious reasons, they often extrapolate current technological and social trends and assume that they will develop at the same pace in the future, but technological progress in reality has its own paths and rates of development. For example, many futurists of the 1950s believed that space tourism would be ubiquitous today, but did not predict the possibilities of ubiquitous cheap computers. On the other hand, many predictions were accurate.

Notable futurists

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Notes

Literature

• Tuzovsky I. D. / I. D. Tuzovsky; Chelyab. state acad. culture and arts. - Chelyabinsk, 2009. - 312 p.
• Bestuzhev-Lada IV Alternative civilization. - M.: VLADOS, 1998. - 352 p.
• A. Turchin, M. Batin. "", Binom - M .: - 2012

Links

• A. V. Korotaev

An excerpt characterizing Futurology

There were already winters, morning frosts shackled the ground moistened with autumn rains, already the greenery had become narrower and brightly green separated from the stripes of turning brown, knocked out by cattle, winter and light yellow spring stubble with red stripes of buckwheat. The peaks and forests, which at the end of August were still green islands between the black fields of winter and stubble, became golden and bright red islands in the midst of bright green winters. The hare was already halfway lost (molted), the fox broods began to disperse, and the young wolves were larger than the dog. It was the best hunting time. The dogs of the hot, young hunter Rostov not only entered the hunting body, but also knocked out so that in the general council of hunters it was decided to give the dogs a rest for three days and go on departure on September 16, starting from the oak forest, where there was an untouched wolf brood.
This was the state of affairs on the 14th of September.
All that day the hunt was at home; it was frosty and poignant, but in the evening it began to rejuvenate and warmed up. On September 15, when young Rostov looked out the window in the morning in a dressing gown, he saw such a morning, better than which nothing could be better for hunting: as if the sky was melting and descending to the ground without wind. The only movement that was in the air was the quiet movement from top to bottom of descending microscopic drops of mist or mist. Transparent drops hung from the bare branches of the garden and fell on the newly fallen leaves. The ground in the garden, like poppies, turned glossy wet black, and at a short distance merged with the dull and damp cover of fog. Nikolay went out onto the porch, wet with dirt, which smelled of withering forest and dogs. The black-spotted, broad-assed bitch Milka, with big black bulging eyes, saw her master, stood up, stretched back and lay down like a brown, then unexpectedly jumped up and licked him right on the nose and mustache. Another greyhound dog, seeing the owner from the colored path, arching its back, quickly rushed to the porch and raising the rule (tail), began to rub against Nikolai's legs.
- Oh goy! - that inimitable hunting echo was heard at that time, which combines both the deepest bass and the thinnest tenor; and from around the corner came Danilo, a hunter and hunter, trimmed in Ukrainian brackets, a gray-haired, wrinkled hunter with a bent rapnik in his hand and with that expression of independence and contempt for everything in the world that only hunters have. He took off his Circassian hat in front of the master, and looked at him contemptuously. This contempt was not offensive to the master: Nikolai knew that this Danilo, who despised everything and stood above all, was still his man and hunter.
- Danila! - said Nikolai, timidly feeling that at the sight of this hunting weather, these dogs and the hunter, he was already seized by that irresistible hunting feeling in which a person forgets all previous intentions, like a man in love in the presence of his mistress.