Demographic human behavior. The concept of demographic behavior

One of the most important factors determining the fate of peoples is the peculiarities of their demographic behavior, i.e. mode of natural reproduction.

Since the 1960s, ethno-demographic problems have been constantly in the focus of attention of both domestic and foreign researchers. This was due to the fact that, as it turned out by that time, the problem of interethnic and intercultural differentiation of fertility is becoming one of the central ones for all mankind at the turn of the 20th-21st centuries. In this respect, the USSR, as it were, repeated the picture of all mankind in miniature. The fall in the level of mortality, and above all, child mortality, among most of the peoples of Asia, Africa, and Latin America was not accompanied by a corresponding decrease in the birth rate, as a result of which the population of these regions grew exponentially after the Second World War. Numerous birth control programs adopted by UNESCO and other organizations, as well as by national governments, have failed.

In the Soviet Union, this problem was not so acute, since the peoples who experienced<демографический взрыв>constituted a relatively small proportion of the population. However, it was felt more and more acutely, for example, in Central Asia and a number of regions of the Caucasus. Attempts to resolve it sometimes took on a very peculiar character, such as, say, the program of resettlement of a part of the Central Asian population in<трудонедостаточные>regions of the RSFSR. Therefore, the discussion of the reasons for maintaining a high birth rate in the conditions of socialist modernization and the methods of possible influence on it was then far from being of academic interest. Opinions, as always, were divided.

On the one hand, the opinion was expressed that the peculiarities of demographic behavior are an integral feature of the culture of the people and have been inherent in it almost from eternity. This opinion was most characteristic of a number of demographers, ethnographers and ethno-sociologists from among the representatives of the indigenous nationalities of Central Asia*.

The opposite position boiled down to the fact that the peculiarities of the family structure and demographic behavior of the various ethnic groups that made up the population of the USSR would inevitably level out in the near future in the process of modernization; the nuclear family must prevail, and all<пережитки>traditional family relationships - stay in the past *.

One of the main questions of the discussions about the ethnic differentiation of the birth rate is how rational are the orientations towards achieving the maximum birth rate that are characteristic of representatives of traditional cultures. Some scientists believe that the desire for maximum fertility is not so much a cultural fact as a biological one. Only birth control* can be rational.

In recent years, a different concept has become widespread, first formulated back in the early 50s by the English demographers K. Davis and J. Clake. In particular, they came to the conclusion that having many children in an agrarian society has rational grounds, since the use of child labor is beneficial in the traditional farming system, and therefore the value of having many children is fixed in culture*.

The central moment of understanding the problem was the concept<демографического перехода>, which was formed as a result of generalization of data on the dynamics of fertility and mortality in different countries and cultures. From the point of view of scientists - demographers and sociologists, the demographic transition is a general process of falling fertility and mortality in the course of urbanization, modernization and industrialization of modern societies.

The practical significance of the demographic transition concept was that it was widely used in the analysis of the situation in developing countries. However, models of this process were initially developed and studied in industrialized nations.

By the mid-1960s, the prevailing opinion in historical demography was that an industrial society in Europe could not have been formed on the basis of<традиционного>the regime of natural reproduction and the type of family corresponding to it, with a very high birth rate and a high level of infant mortality that balances it, with universal marriage and a low level of divorce. The post-industrial civilization of Europe and North America is based on a fundamentally different family structure -<супружеской>a family characterized by a low birth rate and a low level of infant mortality, an average level of celibacy for both men and women, a high level of divorce and remarriage, and a very wide range of ages at first marriage.

The works of J. Hudzhnel, Z. Pavlik and other specialists in historical demography have shown that the prerequisite for changing the norms of demographic behavior in most countries of Western Europe was the formation of a specific and unique European type of family, which has the following characteristic features: a relatively low level of marriage and late entry into the first marriage, the preservation of a high marital birth rate and a gradual transition to medium and small children, to intra-family birth control. The rise in living standards and medical care in Europe in the 1880s. over time, he also formed a new type of natural reproduction, characterized by a low mortality rate in general, and especially in children *.

The demographic transition includes four stages. In the first, mortality falls under the influence of improved medical care and an increase in the standard of living; it mainly affects child mortality. Birth rates remain high, leading to rapid population growth (<демографический взрыв>). At the second stage, the birth rate begins to fall, and the death rate continues to fall. At the third stage, the decline in the birth rate slows down, but at the same time, a certain increase in the death rate begins due to<постарения>population - a natural consequence of falling birth rates. Finally, at the fourth stage, the levels of fertility and mortality stabilize, converge, and the demographic equilibrium lost in the first three stages as a result of an imbalance in the levels of fertility and mortality is restored.

This general scheme has many variants (currently about 10) in different cultures, depending on the combination of birth and death dynamics at different stages of the transition. However, three of them are of fundamental importance.

Classical<английский>a variant in which the death rate in the first two stages falls much faster than the birth rate, and at the same time the population grows very quickly;

- <французский>an option when the birth rate begins to fall almost simultaneously with the fall in mortality, albeit at a slower pace. Under this option, the population explosion is the smallest, and population growth during the demographic transition does not have catastrophic consequences;

- <японский>the variant most often found in countries that have recently embarked on the path of modernization; under this option, at the first stage, the drop in mortality is accompanied not only by the preservation of the birth rate, but even by its increase, in

resulting in population growth at a faster rate than under other transition options.

Studies have shown that the European type of marriage, which preceded the active phase of the demographic transition in the most developed countries of Europe, is associated with a certain economic system and the level of social division of labor, which became a prerequisite for the formation of European capitalism. So,<постарение>first marriages and the resulting decline in the birth rate are explained by the increased requirements for the vocational training of an ordinary member of society, as well as<нуклеаризацией>families, a decrease in the role of family ties as a socially insuring factor.

Let us consider the ethno-social problems of demographic behavior in more detail using the example of the Russian ethnos.

The specificity of the Russian ethnos manifested itself both in traditional demographic behavior and in the features of the demographic transition.

In the traditional Russian agricultural community, where relatively simple and non-specialized labor methods prevailed, children were involved in the labor process very early, and a large number of children in the family served as a factor in its economic prosperity. It was believed that boys are the future<тягловые>men who, having entered into marriage, will have the right to a land allotment (taxo); and girls -<товар)>in the marriage market, which made it possible to maintain broad social ties through interbreeding. Even in infancy, children were an essential help in the family.<Полно, Ванюша, гулял ты немало, пора за работу, родной>- so wrote N.A. Nekrasov, addressing a seven-year-old boy (poem<Кому на Руси жить хорошо?>).

On the contrary, in a society with a high level of division of labor and the dominance of private property, it is more economically profitable for a family to raise fewer children, but to give them higher professional training. Accordingly, it is considered better to enter into marriage at a later age, having reached a certain level in your business and providing children with fairly high starting positions.

Late marriage served in the European family as a way to regulate the birth rate; in modern<супружеской>family, a return to an earlier age of marriage occurs, since the decrease in the birth rate is achieved due to intra-family regulation, and not a reduction in the duration of the marriage period. J. Hajnal drew the border of the spread of European 69

th type of family along the Trieste-Petersburg line, referring the entire territory of the settlement of the Russian ethnic group to the traditional or transitional type.

It has even been hypothesized that<русской>models of traditional demographic behavior". Its features are as follows (Table 2)

Very high infant mortality;

Higher than in Europe, the likelihood for people who did not die in infancy, to live to old age.

In general, the trajectory of the demographic transition among Russians corresponded<английской>models, however (1) it started much later; (2) flowed much faster; (3) it was not preceded by the formation<европейской>families.

The first stages of the demographic transition among Russians (80s of the 19th century - 20s of the 20th century) proceeded very smoothly, even slowly. This was due to the high proportion of the rural population, the slow growth of cities, and the stability of the way of life of the rural population. As a result, the main features of the regime of reproduction of the Russian population, which developed at the turn of the century, were preserved until the 30s of the 20th century. In Western European countries, the beginning of the demographic transition dates back to the turn of the 18th century. (Table 2).

However, during the first 10 years of Soviet power, significant changes took place in the demographic behavior of the Russian ethnos. Firstly, the level of infant mortality among Russians fell approximately 1.7 times, which was at the end of the 19th century. approximately 33% (i.e., every third child born died during the first year of life). Secondly, after the revolution, for the first time, mortality in Russian cities became lower than in villages, and this is a significant indicator of urbanization; the city became a model of not only spiritual, but also everyday culture.

Thirdly, there has been a noticeable gap in the birth rate between the city and the countryside. Thus, in the cities of the European part of the USSR, the birth rate among Russians in 1927 was 34.1 ppm per year, which was 10.6 ppm points lower than that of the entire population. Approximately the same was the ratio among the Russian population of the European part of the RSFSR (45.4 and 35.2 ppm). Living conditions in Russian cities in those years were not conducive to maintaining a high birth rate. But the most important thing was that the cultural revolution that had begun, the rapid growth in the level of literacy, radically changed the value orientations of the population: it became more prestigious to have not a large number of children, but children who received good professional training.

Among Russians, the process of demographic transition, i.e. shifts<традиционного>reproduction mode on<современный>passed very quickly. So, already in the decade 1959-1969. the number of births per 1000 population averaged 19 per year, which corresponds to the modern type of natural reproduction. Actually this<переход>occurred over a period of less than three generations (about 70 years) - from the end of the 19th century. until the 60s of the XX century. (Table 3).

Along with the fall in the birth rate and mortality, there was also a final<нуклеаризация>families, i.e. her transformation from<родственной>in<супружескую>. In the countryside, already in the 1920s, small-sized families predominated among the poorest peasantry. In addition, in the second half of the 1920s, the process of dividing up large unified peasant farms intensified. At the beginning of the 30s, during the period of collectivization, it was the large rich families, which included 6-8 members each, that suffered the most. An important factor in nuclearization was the final liquidation of the community in the process of collectivization.

It didn’t work out among the Russians<европейский>family type. The average marriage age for women never exceeded 22-24 years, the level of celibacy remained relatively low, and birth control from the very beginning of the demographic transition, i.e. since the end of the 19th century, was achieved not so much by reducing the total interval of marriage, but by intramarital birth control.

The high rates of the demographic transition had an impact on the characteristics of the socio-economic development of Russians. It was precisely the maintenance of the traditionally high birth rate in the Russian countryside, with a sharp drop in mortality, that gradually increased the relative lack of land in the Russian countryside. In the absence among the absolute majority of the Russian peasantry of stable traditions of majorat (inheritance of land allotment by one eldest son), this inevitably led to the need for continuous fragmentation of plots, and, consequently, heated up a hotbed of social tension in the countryside. By the end of the 20th century, i.e. a generation after the completion of the demographic transition, the Russian ethnos found itself in a state of crisis.

The main manifestation of the crisis is the increase in mortality and the decrease in life expectancy, which have been observed in Russia over the past 25 years. This was partly due to the inevitable aging of the population; however, not only absolute, but also age-specific mortality rates increased.<Результатом наблюдавшейся в последние два-три десятилетия в России динамики смертности явилось качественное отставание России от всех экономически развитых стран мира по показателям продолжительности жизни. Если в 60-х годах ее параметры в целом соответствовали среднеевропейскому уровню (64-65 лет для мужчин и 73 года для женщин), то сегодня отрыв от него составляет минимум 7-10 лет)>".

A particularly unfavorable situation, according to demographers, has developed with child mortality (under the age of 1 year). Even the officially recognized rate today (18-20 deaths during the first year of life per 1000 births), although lower than in most developing countries, where it is usually 3-15%, is significantly higher than in developed countries (0.8 -1.2%). Some experts believe that at present the real infant mortality in our country is approximately 1.5 times higher than the official level: the chronic underestimation of infant mortality is caused both by the concealment of a certain number of births and by different principles for registering infant mortality in Russia and in most foreign countries.

Another indicator of the demographic crisis of the Russian ethnic group is the decline in the birth rate, which has especially intensified since the early 1990s. Nowadays, many researchers emphasize the particular relevance of the problem of the reproduction of the Russian population. According to demographers,<русские имеют самый низкий уровень рождаемости и один из наиболее высоких показателей смертности среди основных национальностей России>"*. In the context of a simultaneous increase in mortality and a decrease in the birth rate, Russia for the first time in its history faced the fact of negative natural population growth and a trend towards depopulation.

A drop in the birth rate below the level of simple reproduction was observed in the 60-70s in some European countries (for example, in Germany), but there it was associated with a sharp increase in the standard of living and professionalism of the population, while in Russia, directly opposite phenomena are observed. .

Let us consider how the socio-demographic processes proceeded among the titular ethnic groups of Russia at the turn of the 80-90s.

Until 1991, without exception, all ethnic groups of the Russian Federation (from among<титульных>) had a positive natural increase. The constant decrease in the number of Mordovians and Karelians was caused mainly by ethno-assimilation processes. In 1991, Russians and Mordovians for the first time decreased in number due to the excess of mortality over births.

The ethnic groups of Russia in the early 1990s were at different stages of the demographic transition. The number of indigenous peoples of the Caucasus increased at a fairly high rate, and in some cases, the growth rate did not fall over time, but increased. The same applies to the indigenous peoples of Siberia, as well as to the Kalmyks, although here the figures were somewhat lower than in the North Caucasus. A diametrically opposite situation has developed among the peoples of the Volga region and a number of other peoples of the European part of Russia, including Russians.

A high level of natural growth is not an indicator of the well-being and stability of an ethnic group; it indicates the incompleteness of the demographic transition, which in itself can be a source of destructive processes in the development of an ethnic group (Table 4).

Thus, characterizing the demographic behavior of the studied ethnic group, the sociologist should pay attention to the following points:

At what stage of the demographic transition is the ethnic group,

What is the trajectory of the demographic transition and how fast is it;

How does the process of urbanization affect it: whether there is a sharp drop in the birth rate in cities or not, and how, in turn, natural growth affects the processes of urbanization;

How does the economic activity of the rural population correlate with the level of children?

EXPLANATORY NOTE

Knowledge of national history is inseparable from understanding the patterns and features of the country's development from antiquity to the present day. Starting from the 17th century. many processes in the history of Russia are quite convincingly explained from the point of view of modernization theory. Its features are ideas about the progressive development of the country, about the continuity of economic, political, socio-cultural and other processes, about the relationship of Russian history with the history of other states.

Thus, relying on the theory of modernization, the student gets the opportunity to reasonably judge the specifics of certain events and phenomena of the past. Knowing the peculiarities of the historical path of Russia, undergraduate historians are able to evaluate the Soviet experience in a new way, without locking it within the framework of communist ideology.

The declared training course is supposed to consider the evolution of the main spheres of life in Russian society in the 18th–20th centuries. Politics, economics, public life, demography, urbanization, culture will be considered here. At the same time, the main attention will be paid not to individual facts, but to the processes of evolution of these spheres over a long period of time.

The course assumes reliance on modern research literature, as well as on the publication of sources that have become available in recent decades.

The aim of the course is the study by undergraduate historians of the main provisions of the theory of modernization and the specifics of modernization changes in Russia. Course subject are the problems of studying national history from the point of view of modernization theory. According to this main tasks are: the formation of a holistic view of the theory of modernization and its heuristic possibilities among undergraduates, the specifics of the historical development of Russia in the 18th–20th centuries, the most significant historical research on the history of Russia, carried out with the involvement of the scientific apparatus of modernization theory, the optimal approaches to teaching relevant topics in public schools and universities.

The total complexity of the discipline

The total complexity of the discipline is 3 credit units.

In the process of studying the discipline "Modernization processes in the history of Russia" the following competencies are formed: OK-1, OK-3, GPC-2.

EDUCATIONAL AND THEMATIC FLOWING

Educational and thematic plan of full-time education

2.2 Educational and thematic plan of distance learning

3.1 Outline of the training course

SECTION I. THE THEORY OF MODERNIZATION

General characteristics of the modernization approach

The concept of modernization. Definitions of modernization. Criteria for modernization. Stages of modernization. Theoretical and methodological approaches in the study of modernization. Spatial factor of modernization. Urbanization and modernization: correlation of concepts. Time factor of modernization. Historiography of the School of Modernization. Prospects for modernization.

The specifics of Russian modernization

Features of the Russian historical process. Waves of Russian modernizations. Petrovsky modernization. Modernization of the second half of the XVIII century. Modernization in the XIX - early XX centuries. "Conservative Modernization" in the USSR. post-soviet modernization. Historiographic study of Russian modernization. Features of Russian urbanization.

SECTION II. THE MAIN DIRECTIONS OF MODERNIZATION CHANGES IN RUSSIA IN THE 18th–20th centuries

Economy

The main characteristics of the economy of an agrarian society. Natural production and commodity-money relations. Peasant farming as the main unit of the agricultural sector. Small industrial production. Formation of the market during the industrial stage. Industrialization in Russia, its features. Concentration and specialization of industrial production. Large agricultural enterprises, their role and specifics of functioning. Trends in replacing manual labor with machine labor in agricultural production. Fundamentals for the formation of the information society in modern Russia. The role of the service sector. Scientific and technological revolution, its specificity in Russia.

Demographic behavior

Types of demographic behavior, their evolution in the course of modernization. The traditional type of population reproduction, its basis. The role of the family in an agricultural society. demographic revolution. The changing role of the family at the industrial stage. Modern type of demographic behavior. depopulation trends.

Resettlement.

Urban and rural population Agrarian settlement. Urbanization in Russia, its main characteristics. The specificity of the urban settlement network. Settlement concentration. Settlement and transport routes. Polarization in urban development. Reduction of the rural settlement network. Formation of urban agglomerations, their role in the evolution of the settlement system. The beginning of deurbanization. Changing the ratio of urban and rural population in the course of modernization.

culture

The dominance of religious culture in traditional society. dominance of the oral tradition. Prerequisites for the growth of the level of literacy as the formation of an industrial society. Secularization of Russian culture. The development of the media. The phenomenon of mass culture. Increasing the role of science in the life of society. National and international in culture. Fundamentals of the formation of a new information environment. Globalization of cultural development processes at the post-industrial stage.

social device

Class society, its main characteristics. Features of the formation of estates in Russia. The destruction of the class structure. Problems of social diversification in the Soviet era. Modern social structure. Problems of formation of civil society in Russia. Social guarantees in Russia and the USSR. The social security system and the prerequisites for the transition to a "welfare state". The nature of gender and age restrictions in Russia, the possibility of their elimination. Ethno-confessional structure of Russia. Multinational state and ethnic contradictions. Society and Church.

1. The history of the formation of demography

Formation of demographic knowledge (XVI - early XIX century)

Emergence of demographic science (19th century)

Modern development (mid-XX - to the present day)

2. The structure of demographic science

3. The object of demography as a science

4. Demography and other sciences

5. Sections of demographics

demographic theory

Pure (formal) demographics

Analytical demographics

Historical demographics

Sociological demography (social demography)

Military demographics

6. "Population explosion"

7. Demographics in Russia

8. Population policy in India

9. Demographics in the US

10. Demographics in Europe

Demography(Greek δέμος - people, γράφω - I write) - this is the science of the patterns of population reproduction, the dependence of its nature on socio-economic, natural conditions, migration, studying the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population, their changes, the causes and consequences of these changes and giving recommendations for their improvement.

DemographicsI – this is a type of practical activity for collecting data, describing and analyzing changes in the size, composition and reproduction of the population.

Demography – this is the science of the types, methods and nature of population reproduction and the factors that determine and influence this process.

History of formationdemographics

The history of demographic science has long been associated with the development of an empirical form of knowledge, limited to the collection, processing and interpretation of population data in accordance with practical needs. The performance of this function was accompanied by constant improvement of research methods.

The term "demography" first appeared in 1855 in the title of a book by the French scientist A. Guillard Elements of Human Statistics, or Comparative Demography. He received official recognition after the International Congress of Hygiene and Demography in Geneva in 1882. The term entered the Russian language from the 1870s in connection with the work of the 8th session of the International Statistical Congress (St. Petersburg, 1872); originally used as a synonym for population statistics. In the future, demography began to be called the type of activity for collecting data, describing and analyzing changes in the size, composition and reproduction of the population; more rarely, just population data. The adjective "demographic" is used as "pertaining to the study of the population" (eg, demographic literature), as well as "pertaining to the population" (eg, demographic structure).

Stages of development

The roots of demographic science go back thousands of years. Even the ancients felt the need to register the population (taboo, child accounting). In the Ancient World, Ancient China and during the Middle Ages, knowledge and ideas about the population were formed haphazardly in the general mass of undifferentiated scientific knowledge: in some places separate attempts were made to regulate family behavior and fertility. In the same period, thinkers drew attention to the relationship between the population and its general development (Confucius, Plato, Aristotle).

Formation of demographic knowledge (XVI - early XIX century)

New goals and objectives are being born: to determine the dynamics of the population, its dependence on the birth rate, mortality, structural and territorial displacements. In the 18th century, the first attempts were made to observe the change in the number of deaths and births and the population in individual countries.

The founder of demographic statistics (political arithmetic) - J. Graunt - drew attention to many laws, made an analysis of mortality bulletins, built the first simple model of the mortality table. In 1693, Halley built a complete mortality table for the population of the city of Breslau (Wroclaw), including infant and child mortality in it.

At the end of the 18th - beginning of the 19th century, the foundations of the modern population census (1790) were laid in the United States, and current population records were established. In Russia in the middle of the 18th century, M. V. Lomonosov was the first to pay attention to the problems of “preserving and multiplying the Russian people.” The works of D. Bernoulli and L. Euler, devoted to the mathematical analysis of mortality, belong to the same period.

Emergence of demographic science (19th century)

In the 19th century, the question arose about the role and place of demography in socio-economic development. The descriptive character increases, the composition and movement of the population are considered. In the middle of the 19th century, attempts were made to study the social differentiation of fertility and mortality by such scientists as G. F. Knapp (Germany), L. A. Bertillon (France).

Demographic statistics and demographic dynamics (population movement) are highlighted.

Statement of demographic science (late XIX - first half of the XX century)

The reproduction of the population becomes the central object of study in demography, in connection with which various laws concerning population are adopted in a number of countries. Researchers of the second half of the 19th century are approaching the interpretation of population reproduction as a single interconnected process. V. Bortkevich began, and R. Beck and R. Kuchinsky completed the development of indicators characterizing the result of the reproduction process.

In the 1920s and 1930s, steps were taken towards international cooperation. The first attempts are being made to conduct demographic research in conjunction with other social phenomena. Demography is asserting itself in the role of social science.

Modern development (mid-XX - to the present day)

Over the past half century, there has been a tendency to increase attention to the study of demography with t.z. economic and social factors of general development.

In the mid-1970s, the United Nations published the work "Determinants and Consequences of Demographic Trends", which notes:

increase in the volume of demographic information and source base

a rapid increase in the number of demographic studies and an increase in the degree of their specialization

advances in demographic analysis

In the 20th century, the formation and development of demography was reflected in the works of K. German, P. Semenov-Tienshansky, and A. I. Chuprov. Yu. A. Yanson.

Structure of demographic science

As an independent science, demography studies patterns and factors that determine or significantly affect such phenomena of human life as fertility, mortality, marriage and termination of marriage, the reproduction of married couples and families, the reproduction of the population as a whole as the unity of these processes; it explores changes in the age-sex, marriage and family structure of the population, the relationship of demographic processes and structures, as well as patterns of change in the total population and families as a result of the interaction of these phenomena. Demography develops methods for describing, analyzing and forecasting demographic processes and demographic structures.

In practical terms, the area of ​​demographic research includes a description of the demographic situation, analysis of trends and factors of demographic processes on the planet as a whole, in a particular country or group of countries; in certain territories or in certain groups of the population in different periods. Based on the study of the characteristics of fertility and mortality in different generations, in different social groups and in different territories, demography assesses their most likely changes in the future, developing demographic forecasts marriage and family structure of the population; fertility and its social conditioning; mortality and its social conditioning; reproduction of the population, the growth of its numbers, the relationship of demographic processes and structures.

With general methodological approaches to research, each of these areas has its own characteristics both conceptually and methodologically.

Many concepts of demography are rather vague and do not have precise definitions. This is due to the proximity of the conceptual apparatus to everyday vocabulary. Concepts such as: children, family, fertility, mortality, infant mortality, marriage, divorce, life expectancy, etc. do not require special explanations. At the same time, demographers put in them quite accurate content, and in order to avoid confusion, it is necessary to strictly monitor their use. At the same time, there are a number of special terms that are widely used, in particular in journalism and the media, and which need clarification.

In demography, when talking about population, two concepts are often used - population itself and population.

"Population" is a more common and less defined concept. You can say the population of a country, city, village, district, etc.

The concept of "population" is usually used when it is necessary to give a holistic view of a country (state) or a large region (Africa, the Asia-Pacific region, etc.).

Stable population, or closed population. The concept used in demographic modeling makes it possible to analyze the possible development of events in the absence of migrations, constant birth rates, death rates and the age structure of the population.

Open population - a real population, the number of which changes not only under the influence of reproduction processes, but also as a result of migrations, as well as socio-political upheavals and catastrophes

Reproduction of the population is a process of constant renewal of generations of people.

Population explosion - a sharp increase in population as a result of a decrease in mortality as a result of improved living conditions and medical care, while maintaining birth rates (Third World countries)

Demographic transition is a change in the types of population reproduction, a transition from a society with a high uncontrolled birth rate, high mortality and low life expectancy to a society with a low, socially and economically determined birth rate, significant life expectancy and low mortality not only in productive, but also in older ages.

The demographic situation is the state of demographic processes at a certain point in time, which is a stage in the analysis of long-term trends in the development of the population.

Demographic behavior - ethno-cultural and social characteristics of the reproduction of the population, determined by traditions, moral norms and attitudes in society. Distinguish:

matrimonial behavior - marriage and family formation

reproductive behavior - childbearing

self-preserving (vital) behavior - attitude towards health, one's own life and the life of people around.

Average life expectancy. What is life expectancy? This is the interval of time that passes from the moment of birth to the moment of death. Each person has his own. But for demographic and socio-economic forecasts, a certain average coefficient is needed to calculate the future population. One of these indicators is the average life expectancy. It must be admitted that this concept does not accurately reflect its content. In fact, this is life expectancy calculated for newborns, assuming current age-specific mortality rates are maintained.

Migration transition - the transition from low mobility of the population in traditionalist societies to active movements.

Pendulum migrations are daily migrations of the population, usually associated with work trips, study, etc.

Demographic Methods:

Demography uses both its own research methods and the methodological apparatus of other sciences, primarily mathematics and statistics, sociology and geography.

Actually demographic methods.

Each event in demography has three temporal characteristics. These are: 1) the date of birth of the individual (n); 2) the date of the occurrence of any event in his life (t) and 3) the age of the given individual at the time of the event (x). There is an unambiguous relationship between all three quantities. The age of an individual can be easily obtained from the difference between the year of his birth and the year of the event, or vice versa, his year of birth can be determined by age.

The presence of such interrelated variables determined three ways of analyzing demographic data.

The object of observation can be:

a group of people of all ages living at the same time at a particular moment or period of time. It is customary to call such a group of people contemporaries;

a group of people born in the same year or time period. These are peers;

a set of people who have different years of birth, but for whom specific demographic events occur at the same age. These people are called peers.

The study of the totality of contemporaries gives a one-time cut of society and allows you to judge the state of the population at a certain point in time. Such an analysis in demographic language is usually called cross-sectional.

The main purpose of the cross-sectional analysis is to study the change in the size of the population and its gender and age structure. Demographic events are distributed by sex and age and then correlated with the number of available age groups, this allows us to assess the intensity of demographic processes.

If we combine the demographic events that occur for successive ages, then we get the life of a certain "conditional generation" from birth to death. At the same time, it is assumed that each subsequent generation, crossing the age bar, will face the same demographic events as the previous one, and they will occur with the same intensity. It is this approach that makes it possible to calculate such indicators as life expectancy, the expected number of children born, and so on. In the conditions of stable development of society, this approach adequately reflects the demographic situation. However, when there is no stability, the value of the method drops sharply.

The object of demography as a science

Demography has its own clearly defined object of study - the population. Demography studies the size, territorial distribution and composition of the population, the patterns of their changes based on social, economic, as well as biological and geographical factors.

The unit of population in demography is a person who has many characteristics - gender, age, marital status, education, occupation, nationality, etc. Many of these qualities change throughout life. Therefore, the population always has such characteristics as the size and age-sex structure, family status. Change in the life of each person leads to changes in the population. These changes together constitute a population movement.

population movement

Typically, the movement of the population is divided into three groups:

Natural - includes marriage, fertility, mortality, the study of which is the exclusive competence of demography.

Migration is the totality of all territorial movements of the population, which ultimately determine the nature of settlement, density, seasonal and pendulum mobility of the population.

Social - the transitions of people from one social group to another. This type of movement determines the reproduction of the social structures of the population. And it is precisely this relationship between population reproduction and changes in the social structure that is studied by demography.

The "natural" or "biological" essence of the population is manifested in its ability for constant self-renewal in the process of generational change as a result of births and deaths. And this continuous process is called population reproduction.

Analysis of demographic processes

The solution of many demographic problems requires the use of a system of methods, among which the main place is occupied by statistical and mathematical methods of analysis. It is possible to study the patterns of change in the population only on the example of a multitude of individuals. The process of collecting information about the population consists of three sources: population censuses, current registration of the vital movement of the population, migration of the population.

To study demographic processes, statistical studies of dynamics, index, selective, balance and graphical methods are used. Mathematical modeling, abstract mathematical modeling, graphic, cartographic methods are also widely used. The main tool for demographic analysis is descriptive statistics of the population by sex, age, occupation, with the help of which it is possible to track indicators of population movement (birth, marriage, mortality).

Demography and other sciences

Population development is a natural process of quantitative and qualitative changes in the population, which become more and more complicated as human society develops. However, demography is not enough to explain all the changes associated with it. An acute shortage began to manifest itself in the second half of the 20th century. A. Sauvy put forward the idea of ​​the need to involve other sciences in the study of population. This idea was fully reflected in the developments of the Center for the Study of Population Problems of the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University under the guidance of Professor D. I. Valentai, who proposed an integrated approach - the active involvement of other related sciences. The system of knowledge about population is constantly evolving.

The process of deepening knowledge about the population is facilitated by a close relationship with economic, historical, sociological science, ethnography, population geography, social hygiene, and jurisprudence. At the intersection of these sciences, such scientific areas as population economics, population sociology, population genetics, and a number of others began to develop. The connection between the sciences that study the population allows them, being in the system of economic, sociological, geographical and other sciences, to simultaneously be part of the system of scientific knowledge about the population, which has a common object of research and is based on common principles of knowledge that unite them. Adjacent sciences by their inherent methods study the laws of functioning and development of the population.

Population, population is one of the basic concepts of a number of social sciences, the central category of demography and systems of knowledge about population. In the most general definition, population is a naturally historically formed and continuously renewed in the process of reproduction of immediate life, a set of people, the main material component of human society. At each stage of the development of the latter, the population acts as a specific historical set of people (the population of the Ancient World, the population of Europe in the era of the Dark Ages, the population of the United States in the second half of the 19th century), which determines its socio-temporal characteristics. It is supplemented by another common characteristic - spatial-territorial. People, being interconnected by a certain unity (for example, tribal, state-political, economic and economic, ethnic, religious, etc.), carry out their livelihoods within the spatial limits of the corresponding territorial organization of society, forming relatively stable aggregates - the population of the mainland, its regions, the population of a particular country, its regions, cities, etc. The concretization of the socio-temporal and spatial-territorial characteristics makes it possible to single out the population of any territory and in any period of time - for example, the population of the Duchy of Burgundy in the middle of the 15th century, the population of Austria in 1979, etc.

The reproduction of the population is one of the main processes of the reproduction of society, the subject of demography and the main object of its study. Sometimes the reproduction of the population is considered as a combination of three types of "movement" of the population: "natural" (biology and physiology), spatial (migration) and social (social mobility).

Reproduction of the population is a probabilistic process, which forms a mass of random, single events - births and deaths. The long-term existence of populations presupposes the preservation of the fundamental conditions for their interaction with the external environment, which is possible only if the flow of demographic events is not chaotic, but ordered in a certain way. Such orderliness really takes place and is a consequence of the self-organization of the demographic system. Such processes also take place in nature, due to which the continuity of the reproduction of plant and animal populations and the relative stability of their numbers are achieved. The management of population reproduction in nature has a biological basis. The limitation of the role of chance is provided by physiological (genetically researched), ethological and ecological mechanisms.

With the emergence of human society, the system for regulating the reproduction of populations undergoes a qualitative change, biological mechanisms for managing reproduction are replaced by social ones (we are talking about managing not processes that occur at the individual level - birth and death remain biological phenomena - but about consciously stimulating or curbing fertility and mortality at the level of populations).

Population reproduction is an ergodic process. The influence of the previous age structure on the next gradually weakens, so that as we move away from some initial moment, the modern age structure depends less and less on the initial one and more and more on the dynamics of exogenous functions of fertility and survival over the past period (weak ergodicity). This property is of great practical importance, since it leads to demographic depreciation, i.e. to automatic smoothing of the consequences of catastrophic events in the life of the population (famine, epidemics, wars, etc.), which greatly deform its age pyramid.

The study of population reproduction took shape in the 19th and 20th centuries. as the public need to understand the demographic changes taking place in the world grows. If we talk about this study in terms of a quantitative analysis of population reproduction, then the first attempts to comprehend population reproduction as a unity of fertility and mortality belonged to the mathematician L. Euler (18th century). Nevertheless, for a long time, interest in the analysis of individual aspects of the "natural" movement of the population clearly prevailed over their synthesis in the study of the reproduction of the population as a whole. Only in the first decade of the 20th century in connection with the creation of a model of a stable population, it became possible to see the process of population reproduction as something integral, to understand its internal quantitative dependencies. In its finished form, this model was developed by the American demographer A. Lotka, but he had many predecessors, starting with L. Euler.

An important step in the study of population reproduction was the construction by the German demographer R. Beck of adequate meters for the intensity of this process (1884). They were not immediately widely accepted. Only in the 1920s–1930s, relying on Beck’s idea, another German demographer R. Kuchinsky applied and widely popularized the population reproduction rate, which later received a strict interpretation within the framework of the stable population model. Kuchinsky's works showed the insufficiency of a separate analysis of fertility and mortality and the need to comprehend them as sides of a two-pronged process, contributed to the awareness of the entire problem of population reproduction and the growth of interest in it. Since the 1950s, the mathematical theory of population reproduction has been further developed in the works of a number of French, American and some other authors.

Reproductive attitude - a mental regulator of behavior, a predisposition of the individual, which determines the consistency of various kinds of actions, due to a positive or negative attitude towards the birth of a certain number of children. The reproductive attitude means readiness for a certain result of life behavior, the acceptability for the individual of the birth of one or another number of sons and daughters. The concept of "reproductive attitude" was introduced into modern scientific literature in the early 1970s and is used not only in demography, but also in other social sciences. The sets of reproductive attitudes fall into two main groups. The first includes the child-bearing attitudes that regulate the achievement of the main result of reproductive behavior. To the second - all installations, one way or another connected with the practice of contraception. We can talk about the presence of reproductive attitudes if an individual has normal fertility. With infertility, the continued willingness to have children indicates the emergence of attitudes towards adoption (adoption). Reproductive attitude data are usually obtained from interviews with women only. Simultaneous surveys of husbands and wives showed that in 30-50% of families there is a discrepancy between the reproductive attitudes of the spouses. Reproductive attitudes are characterized by their formation in childhood - surveys of children reveal in them a clear orientation towards the number of children in the family.

The reproductive set consists of three components: cognitive (informative), affective (emotional), and behavioral (motivational). The essence of the reproductive attitude is revealed in the interaction of all three components and cannot be reduced to one of them. The cognitive component of the reproductive attitude makes it possible to distinguish the qualitative originality of the objects of the attitude to the birth of children - the attitude of childbearing to the preferred sex of the child, to the duration of the pregnancy, etc. The quantitative aspects of the reproductive attitude are expressed in the orientation to a particular number of children, to the intervals between births. The attitudes towards having few children (1-2 children) are characterized by an increase in the interval between births, a desire to use attitudes towards the use of contraceptives and abortions, and the equal acceptability of a son or daughter. The emotional component of the reproductive attitude is made up of positive and negative feelings associated with the birth of a particular number of children.

Socio-psychological methods for ranking attitudes reveal the intensity of the reproductive attitude. Emotions are measured in the study of reproductive motivation. In demography, indicators that measure the cognitive component of the reproductive attitude, for example, the desired number of children, the expected number of children, the planned number of children, have become widespread. The most reliable among them is the indicator of the expected number of children. Its use in all-Russian surveys revealed a decrease in the reproductive attitude, especially noticeable in cities.

Rdemographic sections

The following sections of demography are distinguished.

demographic theory

Interpretation of the driving forces of population reproduction, its dependence on economic, social, socio-psychological and other factors, explanation of historical trends in the development of reproduction regimes, changes in the types of population reproduction. To understand the essence of population reproduction and its place in the natural historical process, ideas about the role of the population in the development of society and its significance for economic development, related to the field of socio-economic science, are of particular importance. The actual demographic theory includes an explanation of the nature of population reproduction and changes in it, demographic behavior, as well as the mutual influence of demographic processes and structures. Demographic theory serves as the initial basis for all stages of the scientific study of demographic processes, from the formulation of working hypotheses to the generalization of the collected and analyzed information.

Collection of primary data on population and demographic processes. The source of actual data for demography is the results of population censuses and generalized data on the current registration of births, deaths, marriages and divorces, as well as materials from micro-censuses and sample surveys, both demographic and sociological, ethno-demographic and others, to the extent that they cover the reproduction of the population. or its social factors. Demography borrows theoretical approaches and methods for collecting, processing and generalizing mass data from statistics and sociometry. The population census provides information on the age and sex, marriage, family composition of the population, on the distribution of people according to certain social and economic characteristics, on demographic events in their lives in the past, and the current record of demographic events - on the number of such events as they occur in different population groups. Sample surveys usually study certain aspects of population reproduction, for example, the influence of living conditions on demographic processes, the attitude of women to the birth of children, the formation and separation of families, etc. genealogical chronicles. Theoretical generalizations of the patterns of population reproduction are also based on the analysis of secondary information, in particular, data from literary and other sources.

Description of demographic processes - a general characteristic of the size, age, sex, marriage and family composition of the population, the general level and trends of demographic processes in specific conditions of place and time. It is carried out, as a rule, on the basis of statistical data or their reconstruction from other sources; often given in comparison with other territories and time periods. Such a description gives an idea of ​​the demographic situation.

Pure (formal) demographics

Consideration of quantitative ratios of demographic phenomena, processes, structures and population growth under their influence.

Analytical demographics

The study of the relationship between demographic phenomena, their determination by social, economic, socio-psychological and other processes. With a broad interpretation, it covers the patterns, causes and consequences of population reproduction in specific conditions, including the conclusions of empirical studies; in the narrow sense is limited to the application of mathematical methods to the study of population reproduction. More or less independent parts are distinguished: analysis of demographic processes using specific research methods, in particular, modeling and forecasting; study of the interaction of demographic processes with other social phenomena. The central place is occupied by the analysis of the impact on the demographic processes of social development in general - in particular, social institutions and norms, as well as socio-psychological factors and all aspects of people's economic activity.

Although the connections of population reproduction with social and economic processes are mutual, demography considers mainly the influence of socio-economic phenomena on population reproduction, while other social sciences study the reverse effect.

Historical demographics

Explores the reproduction of the population in the past and occupies a special place in the structure of demography. In the middle of the 20th century it was sometimes considered as an independent scientific discipline on the border of history and demography. However, with the development of ideas about the historical conditionality of population reproduction and the disclosure of its patterns in a broad historical retrospective, there are more and more reasons to consider historical demography as part of demographic science. The results of demographic studies, collected and analyzed over a fairly long historical period, provide a basis for a theoretical generalization of established historical patterns.

Sociological demography (social demography)

A scientific discipline that is being formed at the intersection of sociology and demography and studies the mutual influence of demographic and social processes. Social demography differs from demography itself mainly in the aspect of research: the first studies the reproduction of the population mainly at the macro level for the population as a whole or its large groups, the second - mainly at the micro level, considering the structure of the family, kinship relations, personality. Accordingly, in social demography, the main attention is paid to the study of social norms, demographic attitudes, demographic behavior and its factors. This determines the features of the methods used in social demography, among which an important place is occupied by sociological and socio-psychological research methods (interviews, tests, etc.).

Modern scientific literature has a strong tradition of considering economic, legal, sociological, socio-psychological and other factors associated with demographic characteristics. In particular, since the late 1960s, works have appeared that describe the reproductive attitudes of various segments of the population and the influence on them of such factors as the level of education, income, ethnic characteristics, etc. Along with this, modern demographers are increasingly using data on the processes and phenomena occurring in the family and are moving on to study these characteristics. Almost simultaneously, sociological studies of marriage and the family began to develop, which cover a wide range of problems - from theoretical aspects of marriage and family relations to empirical studies of certain aspects of the formation, functioning and disintegration of the family (for example, the reproductive function of the family and the impact on it of psychological, economic, legal and many other factors.The sociological-demographic problematics, which became especially relevant at the end of the 20th century, raises the question of further strengthening the interaction between the demographic and sociological sciences, puts forward the development of theoretical questions of social demography as an important scientific discipline among the priorities in this area.

Military demographics

A scientific discipline that investigates the role of the demographic factor in military affairs and the military economy from the quantitative and qualitative sides.

As independent sections in military demography, the study of the mobilization capabilities of belligerent states, in particular, mobilization reserves for the armed forces (AF) and the economy, is singled out; military losses of the population caused by wars of migrations; study of the impact of wars on the reproduction of the population and its health; the demographic consequences of the war. Of great importance in military demography are long-term calculations of the size and composition of the population by sex and age in order to determine the resources of countries or their coalitions.

Military demography is developing on the general methodological foundations of demography and is closely connected with military science, as well as with military statistics, demographic statistics, sanitary and military medical statistics.

The main sources of information for military demography are statistical data on the size and composition of the population before the war, during the war and after it, on human losses during the period of hostilities; official reports on military campaigns based on statistical records or special developments of relevant primary documents; archival, literary and other sources of information about the population, its reproduction and migration. Of great importance are medical statistical reports on individual combat operations, campaigns, periods of the war, and for the war as a whole. However, obtaining reliable and complete information about mobilization reserves, military and other losses is complicated, along with the objective difficulties of accounting during the war, frequent falsification of data on the part of the winner and the vanquished.

One of the sections of military demography is the study of military mobilization and demobilization of servicemen, on the scale of which social mobility, migration, and population reproduction directly depend. So in 1914–1918, approx. 70 million, and in 1939-1945 more than 110 million men of working age.

The share of those mobilized during the world wars is relatively high and dramatically changes the structure of labor resources. So, in the First World War, the average for most of the warring countries were mobilized 12-15%. The absolute number of those mobilized during the war years: in Russia - 15 million, Germany - 13 million, Austria-Hungary - 9 million, France - 8 million, Great Britain with colonies - about 8 million, Italy - about 6 million, USA - about 4 million. Of the men aged 18-45 in Germany, Austria-Hungary and France, about 35% were mobilized, in the UK - about 26%. The employment of women increased.

Human losses in wars lead to such demographic consequences as a reduction in the population, a change in its age and sex structure, and uneven growth. Military demography studies, along with the direct impact of wars on the population and its health, indirect population losses, expressed in significant changes in the birth rate, marriage rate, mortality, morbidity, and also in its physical development.

Methods for calculating direct human losses in wars cannot be considered definitively developed. Direct military losses are understood as all cases of death of people and their loss of ability to work and combat ability due to combat defeats or due to illness during the war, as well as capture by the enemy. In this case, military losses are usually divided into losses among military personnel and losses among the civilian population. The irretrievable losses include all those killed, missing, taken prisoner, who died in medical institutions (at home) from all causes associated with the use of military weapons or died in captivity. Temporary losses of the population (including among military personnel) include persons who are being treated (at the front and in the rear), dismissed from the Armed Forces due to injuries and illnesses, disabled workers who have lost their combat capability in whole or in part.

The classification of human military casualties among military personnel is the most developed, considering them in military-operational and demographic aspects. In military-operational terms, all losses among military personnel are divided into irretrievable and sanitary. The irretrievable losses of military personnel, which are kept by the headquarters of military units, are the losses of those killed, captured and missing. Loss for these reasons is usually considered final. The sanitary losses of servicemen are the wounded (including victims of weapons of mass destruction) and the sick. Sanitary losses are divided into combat (from any types of modern weapons) and non-combat. The demographic aspect concerns the division of losses by age, sex and other demographic characteristics.

Military demography studies the diverse indirect military losses of the population. Studies have shown that during the war years, the marriage rate is significantly reduced due to the mobilization of young men and the postponement of marriages.

Among the indirect military losses of the population is an increase in disability. According to incomplete data, as a result of the First and Second World Wars there were more than 40 million disabled war veterans: for every 100 mobilized in the First World War, 11 disabled were counted, and in the 2nd World War - 28. In modern wars, disabled people are increasingly becomes a civilian population. Among the persons affected by penetrating radiation during the explosion in Hiroshima, but surviving, many of the consequences of chronic radiation sickness were preserved for a long time. The census of Nagasaki on October 1, 1960 showed that 87,866 people suffer from chronic radiation sickness. In 1950–1960 alone, 9,000 people died from radiation sickness and its consequences in Nagasaki.

War has a negative impact on the health of the population, especially of belligerent states: the physical health of people, especially children and adolescents, is deteriorating, and the level of morbidity in almost all classes and groups of diseases associated with malnutrition is increasing. Favorable conditions are being created for the development of epidemics, including especially dangerous infections (cholera, plague, etc.).

Of independent importance in military demography is the study of population migration in the pre-war, war and post-war years: military migration, determined by mobilization and demobilization (military and labor); evacuation and re-evacuation of the population, troops and labor reserves; migration associated with economic (including food) difficulties; medical evacuation, etc.

Especially large was the migration of the population during and after the Second World War. In the USSR, for example, during the Great Patriotic War, millions of citizens were evacuated from the occupied and front-line regions of the country to the East. About 1 million people were evacuated from Leningrad besieged by the Nazis along the "Road of Life" in January-November 1942 alone.

During the Second World War, a large proportion of migrants were refugees and displaced persons. More than 60 million people in Europe were left homeless: people left cities that were subjected to air raids (up to 30% of the housing stock was destroyed in the UK, up to 15% in France). During the war years, a mass forced transfer of people from enslaved countries to Germany was carried out for use in the most difficult jobs. An average of 12-15 million foreign slave laborers worked in Germany annually.

The subject of military-demographic research is also the analysis of the immediate and remote demographic consequences of wars; the impact of the war on the size of the population, its age and sex composition, reproduction, as well as health (both in general and for individual qualitatively homogeneous groups).

The most severe and intractable consequences of wars are the decline in the absolute population of the warring countries, mainly due to the reduction in the number of men of working age. In connection with this, there is a sharp decline in the levels of marriage and fertility, which is replaced by a certain, so-called compensatory, increase in the first post-war years; change in the age and sex structures of the population. The normalization of the sex composition of the population of the warring countries is usually extremely slow.

The demographic consequences of the war can also be considered such important social phenomena as changes in the family and cultural composition of the population that occur as a result of long separations, lack of educational opportunities, the closure of cultural and entertainment enterprises, etc. Both the immediate and long-term demographic consequences of the war significantly affect the socio-economic development of the belligerent states.

"Population explosion"

If in 1900 the population was 1 billion 660 million people, then by the year 2000, according to various estimates, it will exceed 6 billion people. That is why the term "population explosion", meaning rapid population growth, appeared in the 20th century. For tens of thousands of years, the human population has grown very slowly. Approximately 10 thousand years ago, probably about 5 million people lived on Earth. Food production ensured an increase in the number of people - up to 200-300 million by the beginning of a new era. In the Middle Ages, the growth rate slowed down due to epidemics and wars.

The sharp rise in the demographic curve coincides with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution about 200 years ago, when advances in science, medicine, and economics allowed the capacity of the human habitat to expand again. This accelerated growth continues to this day. Its most recent acceleration took place in the second half of the 20th century; for our days. After the Second World War, the states of Asia and Africa, Central and South America, with the help of the World Health Organization (WHO), launched a decisive offensive against diseases. The formerly high mortality rate dropped sharply, while the birth rate remained high. Due to these countries, the growth of the world population has increased dramatically. So, humanity celebrated its first billion around 1830, the second - after 100 years (1939), the third - after 20 years (1960), the fourth - after 15 years (1975), the fifth - after 12 years (1987).

In 1994, more than 5.5 billion people lived on Earth. The net annual increase is now more than 90 million people - that's how many people live in France and Spain combined! In a day, the number of earthlings increases by almost a quarter of a million people, in an hour - by 10,000. This is equivalent to the daily appearance of a medium-sized Russian regional city (Belgorod, Kaluga, Pskov) or hourly - a small regional center. At the current rate of population growth, it will double in 70 years. But the "zenith" of the population explosion has been passed, experts believe that the decline in relative growth has begun. It is assumed that the stabilization of the world population will be achieved by the middle of the 21st century and the population will not exceed 10 billion people, i.e. will be about double the current size. In just 25 years, the population of Africa, the Near and Middle East will double (Brunei - 11 years, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar - 13 years), while Europe will need 282 years for this, and, for example, Ireland - 1000 years.

If in 1900, out of the 15 largest countries by the number of inhabitants, 7 were in Europe, 5 in Asia and 3 in America, then, according to forecasts, in 2000 there will not be a single Western European country in this list, but there will be 9 Asian ones (China, India , Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan, Vietnam, Philippines, Iran), two African (Nigeria, Egypt), two Latin American (Brazil and Mexico), as well as the USA and Russia. But it is worth remembering the Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome. In particular, Africa is the most infected continent, so life expectancy there is drastically reduced.

This could greatly affect the population, so the prospects are still unclear. The problems of developing countries with rapidly growing populations are quite obvious. New people need to be fed, taught, treated, provided with housing, jobs prepared for them... Population growth means the need for new costs, the so-called "demographic investment". In this regard, the pace of eq. growth are declining: too much of the growth of nat. income, and even all of it is spent on maintaining the living standards of the people at the already achieved level. Therefore, the rapid growth of the population has led to the appearance of frightening forecasts of the probable overpopulation and death of the Earth.

The first attempt to assess population dynamics and answer the question of whether the Earth will be able to feed all those living on it is associated with the name of the English scientist Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834), who came to the conclusion that if population growth is not restrained by anything, then the population will double every 25-30 years and that humans are multiplying faster than growing livelihoods. Developing these ideas, he came to the conclusion that the fertility of the poor is the main reason for their miserable position in society. He anonymously published his views in 1798 in his work "An experiment on the law of population in connection with the future improvement of society"

T. Malthus argued that the population is growing exponentially, while the resources needed to feed this population - in arithmetic. Therefore, sooner or later these schedules will intersect, and famine, wars, diseases will come.

In fact, the observed trend turns at a certain stage into the opposite direction. An increase in the standard of living leads to a decrease in the birth rate and not only to the stabilization of the population, but also to its absolute decrease.

Demographics in Russia

After the October Revolution, until the early 1930s, active demographic research was conducted in the USSR. In 1919 the Demographic Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Ukrainian SSR in Kyiv, and in 1930 the Demographic Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR in Leningrad were organized. The problems of population reproduction were studied: the patterns of mortality and fertility, and much attention was paid to the social factors of fertility, trends in the formation and development of the family. The methodology of demographic forecasting was developed. Domestic demography during this period is associated with the names of B. Ts. Urlanis, S. A. Novoselsky, V. V. Paevsky, O. A. Kvitkin, S. T. Strumilin, M. V. Ptukha. S. A. Tomilina and others. In 1930 - 1940. in the USSR, the volume of work on demographic problems was significantly reduced.

The revival of Russian demography began only in the late 1950s. when there was a need for a comprehensive study of the population. Scientific discussions began to be held, research was developed, publications were published, and training of personnel was improved. The study of the patterns of population reproduction, as well as the relationship between population growth and socio-economic development, allowed demography to take shape as an independent social science. From the late 1950s to the early 1960s, the objective process of the need for a comprehensive study of a wide range of population problems, carried out along with demography by a number of other sciences and scientific areas, became obvious.

A huge contribution to the development of theoretical problems of the interconnection of sciences was made by the collective work, edited by D. I. Valentei, “The system of knowledge about population”, published in 1976. In it, for the first time, the subject of the system of knowledge about population was formulated, the knowledge of the patterns of development of population, including demographic reproduction.

At present, major centers for the study of demography in Russia are the Department of Family Sociology and Demography of the Faculty of Sociology of Moscow State University, the Institute of Demographic Research, the Center for the Study of Population Problems at the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University, the Institute of Socio-Economic Problems of Population of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and others.

In the last decade, the demographic processes taking place in our country have a pronounced negative character. The low birth rate, combined with high mortality, led to the effect of depopulation, expressed in the natural decline of the population in the vast majority of regions of the country and in Russia as a whole. For 1992-1999 natural population decline amounted to 5.8 million people. In general, over these years, the population of the country has decreased from 148.7 to 145.5 million people.

The increase in mortality in Russia in the first half of the 90s was so significant that scientists and politicians began to talk about the mass extinction of the country's population, a demographic catastrophe, and even the genocide of the Russian people. At present, the demographic situation in Russia has become one of the most pressing socio-economic problems of our society.

fertility

Since the second half of the 20th century, Russia has experienced a steady decline in the birth rate. Intra-family regulation of childbearing is becoming widespread, becoming an integral part of people's lifestyle and becoming the main factor determining the level of fertility. The beginning of this process falls on the post-war years and continues today, and since the beginning of the 90s, sharp shifts in the political and socio-economic life of the country have also influenced the birth rate.

The decline in the birth rate in the 1950s was largely facilitated by the abolition in 1955 of the ban on artificial termination of pregnancy. In the next decade, the dynamics of fertility rates reflected the continuation of the transition to a new type of reproductive behavior.

Since the end of the 60s in Russia, the model of a family with 2 children has become predominant. The birth rate has fallen to a level slightly lower than necessary to ensure simple reproduction of the population in the future (for simple reproduction of the population, the total birth rate should be 2.14 - 2.15). At the same time, the total fertility rate of the urban population was in the range of 1.7-1.9. In rural areas, the birth rate was higher: from 2.4 to 2.9 births per woman.

In general, over the years of the current decade (1991-1998), repeated births decreased by 1.9 times. At present, according to this indicator, Russia has taken a place among the countries of the world with the lowest birth rate.

On a national scale, as noted above, the birth rate has a clearly defined downward trend, which, in specific historical conditions and taking into account the strategic tasks facing Russia, cannot be regarded otherwise than as a negative phenomenon.

In the foreseeable future, it is difficult to count on a change in the reproductive behavior of Russians. In December 1992, according to a survey conducted by the State Statistics Committee of Russia, only 8% of childless spouses did not express their desire to have a child. According to the 1994 microcensus, almost a quarter (24%) of women aged 18-44 who did not have children at the time of the survey did not intend to have them. Among women of this age who have one or two children, 76% and 96%, respectively, did not plan subsequent births. Thus, in a short period of time, the reproductive plans of families have noticeably adjusted in the direction of reducing the number of children, although, of course, there are exceptions.

One of the negative phenomena of the emerging demographic situation is the ever-increasing number of births of children outside of a registered marriage. In 1998, unmarried women gave birth to 346,000 children (27 percent of the total number of births). The trend towards an increase in the number of children born out of a registered marriage has been observed since the mid-80s, but then the number of illegitimate children did not exceed 12-13% of the total number of births.

In the past few years, due to birth out of wedlock, about 300,000 single-parent families have arisen annually, children in which, from the first day of birth, are not only materially disadvantaged, but also defective in their psychological well-being. Given the current trend, we can assume a significant increase in the number of families that are initially incomplete, with all the ensuing economic and social consequences.

Mortality

From 1965 to 1980 In Russia, there was a steady increase in the death rate of the adult population, especially men. At the same time, there was an extremely irregular trend in infant mortality, which can generally be characterized as a slow decline. In 1981-1984 the death rate stabilized, with male life expectancy averaging 61.8 years and women 73.2 years.

The anti-alcohol campaign in the USSR that began in 1985 led to an increase in life expectancy for both men and women, which in 1986-1997 was 65 years for men and 75 years for women.

Since 1988, the increase in the death rate has resumed, reaching its peak at the height of the "shock therapy". The transition to a market economy in the early 1990s further exacerbated the existing problems. The accumulation of unfavorable changes in public health over the past decades, combined with a sharp decline in the living standards of the majority of the population in the context of the unsatisfactory state of the social sphere and basic medicine, the unavailability of highly effective treatments for the majority of the population, environmental troubles and an increase in crime have exacerbated the situation with mortality in the country.

In 1994, compared with 1991, the mortality rate (the number of deaths per 1,000 population) increased 1.3 times - from 11.4 to 15.7. In the next four years (1995-1998), the mortality rate decreased somewhat, which, apparently, was associated with a certain socio-economic stabilization. However, the emerging positive changes turned out to be short-term, and after another sharp decline in the standard of living of the absolute majority of the population, caused by the consequences of the August crisis of 1998, its new noticeable growth followed (1998 - 13.6; 1999 - 14.7). Thus, in general, the 1990s were marked in Russia by the highest level of mortality since the end of the Great Patriotic War.

Analyzing the causes of this phenomenon, the head of the Laboratory for Systemic Health Research, Doctor of Medical Sciences I. Gundarov, expresses the following point of view: “The epidemic of supermortality in Russia in the 1990s is the result of spiritual values ​​that are historically and culturally alien to us. The Western type of thinking, in every possible way introduced into the consciousness of a Russian person, contradicts his moral and emotional genotype, and the extinction of a nation is a specific reaction of rejection to an alien spirituality.

Attention is drawn to the growth of pathologies, such as hypertension, the death rate from which has increased by 1.7 times in the last year alone.

The mortality rate from tuberculosis has increased significantly - from 7.7 in 1989 to 20.0 per 100,000 people in 1999. The mortality rates of the population from diseases of the respiratory system, digestion, and neoplasms have increased.

As before, the most acute problem is the high level of premature mortality of the population. For 10 years it has increased by more than 100 thousand people of working age and is over 520 thousand people a year.

At the same time, the main causes of death of people of working age are unnatural causes - accidents, poisoning, injuries and suicides. The death rate of the working-age population from unnatural causes is the same as it was in Russia 100 years ago. It is almost 2.5 times higher than the corresponding indicators in developed countries and 1.5 times in developing countries. Thus, more than a third of all those who died at working age (202.0 thousand people, or 39%) in 1998 became victims of accidents, poisoning and injuries (including suicides and murders).

One of the leading places in the structure of mortality of the working-age population is occupied by diseases of the circulatory system - 114.1 thousand, or 28% of the dead. In connection with the increase in the number of deaths in ever younger age groups, there is a rejuvenation of the average age of death from these diseases. In men of working age, it is already below 50 years (49.5 years).

The high mortality rate of the working-age population from cardiovascular diseases, which exceeds the same indicator in the European Union by 4.5 times. Premature mortality of men has negative socio-demographic consequences - the number of potential suitors is decreasing, the number of single-parent families is growing. As of January 1, 1999, 1.8 million children were registered with the social protection authorities and were granted survivors' pensions.

This has created an unprecedented - more than 10 years - gap in life expectancy between men and women.

The life expectancy of Russian men in 1998 was 61.3 years, which is 13-15 years shorter than that of the male population of developed countries, and 72.9 years for women (shorter by 5-8 years). If the current age-sex and age-sex mortality rate persists in the future, of today's young men who have reached the age of 16, 40% will not live to be 60 years old.

Population aging is not something distinctive for our country. This phenomenon is becoming global in nature, affecting primarily developed countries. Globally, children under the age of 15 now account for 30%, three times the proportion of older people aged 60 or over. However, in developed countries in 1998. For the first time, the number of people of the older generation exceeded the number of children. To the greatest extent, the process of population aging is characteristic of Italy. Here the number of children is 60% less than people aged 60 and over. In Greece, Japan, Spain and Germany, this figure is 50-40%. According to the average version of the forecast made by the Population Division of the UN Secretariat, by the middle of the next century in more developed countries there will be half as many children as the elderly.

According to international criteria, a country's population is considered old if the proportion of people aged 65 and over in the entire population exceeds 7%. The population of Russia can be considered as such already from the end of the 60s. At present, 12.5% ​​of its inhabitants (every eighth Russian) are of the above ages.

The long-term decline in the level of natural reproduction of the population, combined with an increase in the absolute number of older people, made the process of demographic aging of the population practically irreversible, and a sharp decline in the birth rate in the 1990s accelerated it.

The model of demographic development in Russia, as well as in most European countries, currently combines a low birth rate, characteristic of highly developed countries, with a lower average life expectancy, which was observed during the recovery of post-war Europe in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Thus, there is some delay in the aging process, which is explained by a large number of premature deaths, especially among men.

Over the years of the current decade (1991-1998), the number of Russians of retirement age has increased by 2.3 million people, or by 8%. Thus, the process of population aging in Russia continues despite a significant reduction in the average life expectancy of men.

The process of demographic aging of the population is much more characteristic of women. Currently, in the structure of the population aged 65 years and over, women make up 69%.

The numerical preponderance of women in the composition of the population is noted after 35 years, and with age it increases more and more. This unfavorable ratio has developed due to the high age and sex mortality of men. Especially high is the premature mortality of men at working ages, exceeding the mortality rate of women at these ages by more than 4 times. If current age-sex mortality persists in the future, out of every 1,000 current 16-year-old boys, almost 400 people will not live to be 60 years old.

Significant disproportions in the sex ratio at older ages are also largely due to the huge human losses of the male part of the population during the Great Patriotic War. In 1998, in 37 regions of the country, the proportion of people older than working age significantly exceeded the number of young people of non-working age.

Demographic reproduction in Russia in recent years is characterized not only by direct depopulation, but also by a sharp deterioration in the physical and mental health of the population. The situation is such that if positive changes do not take place in this area in the near future, then in 20-30 years a significant part of Russians will have serious health problems. Over the past 10 years, an increase in the incidence has been noted among all age groups and for most classes of diseases. At the same time, the main share is made up of socially determined diseases.

The reasons for the supermortality of middle-aged men are in our lives, in our economy. Over the past 10 years, the lot of men has fallen as much as it would not have accumulated in the entire previous life ... Our man was the main person in the family, its breadwinner ... But in 1991 - 1992. the situation has changed. Half of the men “over forty”, having lost their salary and job, and with it their social niche, have not found a new one. They became the lost generation. They were under constant stress. He provoked a lot of ailments, and first of all, cardiovascular diseases. In most cases, our middle-aged men die from them.

The number of recorded patients with drug addiction and substance abuse for the same period increased by 9 times and amounts to 174 thousand people. In reality, the spread of drug addiction and substance abuse is much greater. According to the overwhelming number of experts, this figure should be increased at least 10 times.

According to the Ministry of Health of Russia, in 1998 more than 2.1 million patients were observed in medical institutions for alcoholism and alcoholic psychosis. Per capita alcohol consumption in the country in the 1990s increased to 13 liters per year (in terms of absolute alcohol). According to WHO standards, the situation is considered dangerous for the nation's gene pool when consumption exceeds 8 liters. Speaking of socially conditioned diseases, it should be noted that at the beginning of 1999, 836,000 people with syphilis were registered in medical institutions. Per 100,000 population, the number of these patients is more than 40 times higher than in 1990.

The incidence of tuberculosis has doubled, which in 1998 amounted to 80 people per 100,000 population. In accordance with the criteria of the World Health Organization, the incidence of tuberculosis in Russia has the character of an epidemic.

Of particular concern should be the health of children and pregnant women.

Maternal and infant mortality rates in the Russian Federation are sharply higher than in developed countries. Thus, according to the charitable organization Save the Children, which analyzed data on maternal mortality, the physical health of mothers and children in 106 countries, Russia is in 27th place, and our country is ahead of Kazakhstan (24th place). An increasing number of children are born sick or fall ill while still in the maternity hospital. In 1998, 450 newborns or 36% of the number of births were born sick or fell ill in a maternity hospital. Over the past 10 years, the incidence of newborns has more than doubled.

The disease state of newborns largely determines the health of children at older ages. The obvious unfavorable state of health of the younger generation is also evidenced by the fact that at present about a third of young men cannot be drafted into the army for health reasons, every tenth conscript is addicted to alcohol and drugs. Every fifth preschool child suffers from chronic diseases, only 15% of school graduates are considered practically healthy.

The number of persons with disabilities is growing, and the proportion of persons receiving disability at working age is also constantly increasing. Of the 1.1 million people recognized as disabled for the first time in 1998, 581 thousand are people of working age.

These phenomena are observed against the backdrop of an obvious weakening of the state policy in the field of protecting the health of citizens, loss of control over the situation, a systemic crisis in domestic healthcare, the consequences of which were: reduced access to medical care for the majority of the population; deterioration of the sanitary and epidemiological situation and a sharp weakening of preventive work. There is the prevention of crimes, diseases, injuries, etc.) among the population, the growth of mass diseases, the expansion of environmental disaster zones, the deterioration of environmental safety; reduction in drug production by the domestic medical pharmaceutical industry; drug prices inaccessible to the majority of the population; reduction in volumes and decrease in the level of scientific biomedical research; the decline in the prestige of the work of scientists, doctors and other professional groups of health workers, etc.

The loss of society in the health of the population is largely (but by no means decisive) associated with the weakness of the health care system. According to modern scientific concepts, the state of the nation's health is only 10-15% dependent on the efficiency and availability of medical services. A healthy lifestyle, the state of the environment, the degree of safety and comfort of work and life, and good nutrition are of decisive importance for the state of human health. For many decades, these issues have been in the background in our country, and the socio-economic crisis of recent years has significantly increased their negative impact on the health of the country's population.

Population decline

Under the influence of an unfavorable combination of demographic factors, the population of the country decreased from 148.3 million people in 1992 to 146.3 million people in 1998, or by 1.3 percent. A further decrease in the population occurred in 1999, when in just one year it decreased by 784.5 thousand people, or 0.5%. As of January 1, 2000, according to preliminary data, the population of Russia amounted to 145.5 million people.

A characteristic feature of the demographic situation in Russia in recent years has been a decrease in the country's population in most regions. Until 1990, natural population decline was observed in only 9 regions of the country, in 1991 the number of such regions increased to 29, in 1992 - up to 43. In 1998, processes of natural population decline were observed in 68 regions, where more than 105 million people (72% of the country's population). In 1999, the number of regions where natural population decline was recorded increased to 74. According to preliminary data, in 1999, population losses due to natural decline, both in absolute and relative terms (per 1,000 population) turned out to be the largest after 1992.

The most unfavorable indicators of natural population decline (1.5-2 times higher than the average Russian level) have developed in the regions of the North-West, the Central region, and most regions of the Central Black Earth region.

All this testifies to the menacing rate of reduction in the number of, first of all, the indigenous, Russian population in Russia.

A decrease in the population in 1998 compared to 1997 was noted in 68 of the 89 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where more than 105 million people currently live (72% of the country's population). These are the territories of the Northern, Northwestern and Far Eastern regions, Central (except for Moscow), Volga-Vyatka (except for the Chuvash Republic), Central Chernozem (except for the Belgorod region), Volga region (except for the Republic of Tatarstan), East Siberian (except for the Republic of Tuva and Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrug) districts, as well as the Republic of Adygea, Karachay-Cherkess and the Republic, Altai and Krasnodar Territories, Kemerovo, Kurgan, Omsk, Perm, Rostov, Sverdlovsk, Tomsk Regions and Komi-Permyatsky Autonomous Okrug. Significant rates of decrease in the number of inhabitants were noted in the Chukotka (by 4.8%), Koryaksky (by 2.8%), Evenki (by 2.5%) autonomous districts, in the Magadan and Sakhalin regions and the Taimyr Autonomous District (by 2.3%). -1.9%), Murmansk, Kamchatka regions, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) (by 1.6-1.5%) and the Chechen Republic

The population has increased in 21 regions of the country. In the Republics of Altai, Dagestan, Ingushetia, the Tyumen Region, and the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, a noticeable increase in the number of inhabitants (by 1.4-0.5%) was ensured by both natural and migration growth.

Only due to the excess of births over the dead, there were more residents of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, the Republic of Tuva, the Yamalo-Nenets and Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Okrugs. In the Chuvash and Udmurt Republics, the Republics of Tatarstan, North Ossetia-Alania, Bashkortostan, the Stavropol Territory, Belgorod, Kaliningrad, Novosibirsk, Orenburg, Chelyabinsk Regions and Moscow, the increase in the population was ensured only by the influx of migrants.

In general, until recently, the natural decline in the population was largely compensated for by the migration increase in the population. After the collapse of the USSR, more than 880 thousand internally displaced persons and 80 thousand refugees moved to Russia. Of these, about 500 thousand arrived in Russia from the CIS countries. However, in all likelihood, this source has lost its role as a significant compensatory element in the short term. If in 1992-1995 the natural population decline due to migration was compensated by 70%, then in 1996-1998 - by 44%. And in 1999, compensation was only 15%.

Against the backdrop of population decline in Russia and in a number of other European countries, the continuous growth of the population in a number of countries in Asia and Africa is becoming an increasingly significant factor. On May 11, 2000, the birth of the billionth inhabitant of this country was registered in India. According to UN demographers, by 2051, 1.6 billion people will live in India. Thus, India could overtake China, which by then will have a population of 1.5 billion, according to forecasts.

E. Zhilinsky, an employee of the Institute of Social and Economic Population Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the current situation will inevitably lead to the migration of people from densely populated areas (Asia, Africa) to sparsely populated ones. He notes: “It is already being felt in Europe, where the indigenous population is rapidly declining. Demographic expansion will also affect Russia.”

In general, the general characteristics of the current demographic crisis in the Russian Federation can be formulated as follows.

The demographic crisis is largely predetermined by severe consequences

social upheavals of the first half of the twentieth century, as well as serious socio-economic losses of the transition period of the 1990s. The loss of a significant potential for demographic growth against the background of the supermortality of the Russian population led to a decline in the population and a deterioration in its age and sex structure. Deterioration of health and persistently high mortality rate of the population, especially in working age, low birth rates and life expectancy, especially among men, high infant mortality, an increase in general and age-sex morbidity against the background of aging and an absolute decline in the population, and at the same time a decrease in the level and quality of life pose a significant threat to Russia's national security.

Forecast estimates of the further development of demographic processes in Russia

Based on the nature of the demographic processes of the last decade, as well as the demographic prerequisites of earlier years, it is possible to make a predictive assessment of the main trends in the development of the demographic situation in the country in the future. The forecast is based on the assumption that the changes that have taken place in Russia in the reproductive behavior of the population are irreversible, as a result of which the model of a family with one, less often two children, which is typical today for most developed European countries, is spreading.

The population in the next 10-15 years will decrease in the country as a whole and in the vast majority of regions. A positive migration increase does not compensate for the decrease in population due to the excess of deaths over births. Apparently, the reproductive behavior of Russian families will not undergo qualitative changes. The total fertility rate (the number of births per woman in a lifetime) will be significantly lower than what is required to replace a generation of parents. In the period up to 2008, some increase in the number of births can be expected. During this period, generations of women born in the late 70s and 80s, when there was an increase in the number of births, will gradually enter the age group of 20-29 years, and generations of the second half of the 60s - early 70s will leave , whose number is lower.

In the next ten years, we should expect a decrease in the number of people younger than working age. The working-age population will increase in the next 6-7 years. Subsequently, generations born in the 1990s, when a sharp decline in the birth rate began, will begin to join this group, and numerous generations born in the post-war period will leave. In 6-7 years, the number of people of working age will begin to decrease.

As early as 2000, the proportion of the population group older than the working age will be higher than the group younger than the working age. And this gap will widen in the future. Thus, the process of demographic aging of the population will continue to develop.

It is assumed that the number of children and adolescents under 16 years old for 1999-2015. will decrease by 8.4 million people (by 28%), and their share in the total population will decrease by 4.8 percentage points. For most of the forecast period, generations born will be noticeably inferior to generations outside this age group.

By 2005, as a result of the transition to the retirement age of people of military years of birth, the number of the older age group should somewhat decrease. But since 2000, this group will also include more numerous post-war generations. This will lead to a noticeable increase in the total number of the elderly population and its share in the entire population of the country - by the beginning of 2016. respectively by 4.3 million people and 4.3 percentage points. The numerical superiority of the elderly population over children and adolescents will reach 1.6 times.

In connection with the increase in the number of people of working age, by 2007 the demographic burden will slightly decrease (number of people of working age per 1,000 disabled people), after which the demographic burden will begin to increase.

As the population ages, the most important problem for the country's economy will be the growing pressure on the state budget and the aggravation of the need to finance pension systems and social protection of the population. The process of population aging will affect the economy not only through pressure on the state budget, but may also lead to a change in the economic behavior of the workforce. An increase in the share of older age groups in the working-age population may affect the ability of the workforce to perceive innovations in the high-tech world.

Changes in the age structure will also create problems for the health care system. Over the next few decades, the highest rates of morbidity and mortality will occur in older age groups. In all likelihood, we should expect further gradual repatriation of the Russian and Russian-speaking population to Russia in the next 10-15 years. According to calculations, the population of Russia in the next 10-15 years will continue to decline by 0.3-0.4% per year and in 2015 will be from 130 to 140 million people. The urban population may decrease by 5.3 million people, and the number of deaths may exceed the number of births by 9.4 million people.

Legislative and administrative measures taken to improve the demographic situation in the Russian Federation The demographic situation in Russia requires the targeted intervention of the legislative and executive authorities, both at the federal and regional levels, in the processes of population reproduction, ensuring its health, and reducing mortality.

A number of federal laws adopted recently and aimed at improving the financial situation of women during pregnancy and after the birth of a child, as well as protecting the interests of the family and children, are aimed at increasing the reproduction of the population.

For example, federal laws adopted in 1996-1999 introduced amendments and additions to the Federal Law "On State Benefits to Citizens with Children", which provide for an increase in the amount of the monthly allowance per child for children of single mothers; introduction of an additional allowance for the beginning of the school year for children living in low-income families; strengthening the targeting of social protection by providing citizens with children with a monthly allowance depending on the average per capita income of the family.

An important step towards improving the situation of children's students was the adoption of the Federal Law "On Compensatory Payments for Nutrition of Students in State, Municipal General Educational Institutions, Institutions of Primary Vocational and Secondary Vocational Education".

In order to expand opportunities for the treatment and recreation of children, two federal laws have been adopted: "On benefits for travel on intercity transport for children in need of sanatorium treatment" and "On benefits for travel on intercity transport for certain categories of students in state and municipal educational institutions. institutions The draft federal law “On State Support for Large Families” currently being considered by the State Duma is of great importance. education of children from large families.

It is established that the care of children and their upbringing in large families are socially useful activities. Families with many children are provided with a number of benefits for paying for the use of heating, water, gas and electricity, free provision of medicines for children under six years of age; free travel for children from large families on all types of urban transport, free provision of school uniforms and a number of other measures.

A number of adopted laws are aimed at protecting orphans left without parental care. In particular, federal laws: "On additional guarantees for the social protection of orphans and children left without parental care", "On the introduction of amendments and additions to Article 8 of the Federal Law "On additional guarantees for the social protection of orphans and children left without parental care". without parental care” are focused on a more accurate and complete definition of the category of children left without parental care, protection of their rights and interests, including in terms of providing them with living space and education.

To solve the most important problem facing society at the present time - the fight against the threatening scale of poverty in the country, which exacerbates the demographic crisis, a number of laws have been directed, providing for the provision of targeted social assistance to low-income citizens.

Thus, the Federal Law "On the subsistence minimum in the Russian Federation" establishes the legal basis for determining the subsistence minimum and its use in establishing minimum state guarantees of citizens' monetary incomes and implementing measures for the social protection of the population of the Russian Federation.

In order to implement the law "On the subsistence minimum in the Russian Federation", two federal laws were adopted. The first of them - "On State Social Assistance" determines the procedure for providing state social assistance to low-income segments of the population. "The second -" On the consumer basket as a whole in the Russian Federation - approves natural sets of food, non-food products and services necessary to calculate the subsistence minimum in 2000".

The federal laws “On the Immunoprophylaxis of Infectious Diseases” and “On the Sanitary and Epidemiological Welfare of the Population” are also aimed at improving the most important demographic indicators - public health, reducing mortality, increasing life expectancy.

Draft federal laws "On Public Health in the Russian Federation", "On the Quality and Safety of Food Products" and "On Preventing the Spread of Tuberculosis in the Russian Federation" are under consideration in the State Duma. In addition to the regulatory legal acts of the legislative authorities in the Russian Federation, there are a number of federal targeted programs designed to improve the demographic situation.

In particular, the federal programs “Children of Russia”, “Safe Motherhood”, and the Action Plan for Improving the Situation of Children in the Russian Federation for 1998-2000 should be mentioned. Only in 1999, the Government of the Russian Federation adopted two resolutions aimed at improving medical care for the population, providing medicines: “On measures of state control over prices for medicines” (March) and “On the program of state guarantees for providing citizens of the Russian Federation with free medical care” (October). A number of subjects of the Federation are also taking certain measures aimed at improving the demographic situation. In the Moscow region, for example, the state program “Children of the Moscow Region” is in operation, approved by the decision of the Moscow Regional Duma. In the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, a draft law has been prepared, according to which all children born after 2000 will receive a savings book with a fairly impressive amount by the time they come of age. To do this, accounts will be opened in the Autonomous Okrug, which will accumulate part of the funds from the sale of oil. In the city of Smolensk, in accordance with the decision of the City Council, starting from April 2000, 206 families with many children receive free food packages.

Summing up the general results, it should be noted that these and other measures, despite their certain positive impact, cannot fundamentally change the demographic situation in the country, which requires a number of consistent, comprehensive and targeted measures by the legislative and executive authorities both at the federal and at the regional level.

Obviously, ensuring a decent level and quality of life for people can serve as the basis for improving the reproduction of the population. There is also no doubt that the current demographic situation requires the immediate intervention of both state and all civil institutions of Russian society.

In order to determine the strategy of the state socio-demographic policy, a comprehensive assessment and monitoring of trends, factors and consequences of socio-demographic processes at the federal and regional levels is necessary.

In addition, the Government of the Russian Federation, together with the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation and with the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, needs to develop a nationwide comprehensive program to bring the country out of the demographic crisis. It is expedient to provide for measures aimed at improving the reproduction of the population in the Program; improving the level of health and quality of life of Russians, providing state guarantees to citizens for free medical care, the volume and conditions for receiving it; the formation in society of the ideology and practice of life-saving behavior, healthy and long life, the comprehensive strengthening of the institution of the family, and other measures that contribute to a radical improvement in the demographic situation in Russia.

Population policy in India

India is a country where population censuses are conducted regularly every ten years. The first of these took place in 1881, and the twelfth in 1991. The materials of these censuses contain the necessary information about the growth of the country's population. Data on it throughout the 20th century show that in the first half of the 20th century the population of the country increased by about 1.5 times. And its absolute and relative growth over individual decades was quite significant, but still in the first case did not exceed 4.5 million people, and in the second 1.5% per year. Moreover, in 1911 - 1921 there was an absolute and relative decline in the population, which was the result of the First World War, as well as epidemics of plague, cholera and smallpox. In the second half of the 20th century, population growth accelerated significantly. In 1991, compared with the beginning of the century, it increased by more than 2.5 times.

In 1981-1991 alone, the absolute increase amounted to 161 million, which is almost equal to the entire increase for 31-1961 and exceeds the entire population of Brazil or Russia. And the average annual absolute growth reached the level of 16-17 million checks, which is comparable to the population of Australia. The relative growth in recent decades has also exceeded 2% (20 people per 1,000) per year. With this increase, the population doubles every 30 years. As a result of these growth rates in 1991, the population was 844 million (including 438 million men, million women). According to this indicator, India firmly ranks after China, concentrating 15.7% of the world's population.

Consequently, every seventh inhabitant of our planet is an Indian. All of the above indicates that in the second half of the century, a population explosion is taking place in India. Indeed, with an annual absolute increase of 17 million people, the country's population should increase by 46-47 thousand every day, and by about 1.9 thousand people every hour. It should be borne in mind that these are data on natural increase, that is, taking into account mortality. In terms of fertility, approximately 25 million babies are born in India every year. It is the high birth rate that has been and remains the main engine of the population explosion. Even in the second half of the 1980s, it remained at the level of 31 people per 1,000 inhabitants, although it dropped slightly compared to previous periods.

The population explosion greatly complicates the solution of the main economic and social tasks facing the country. Suffice it to say that in 1901-1991, the average population density in India increased from 27 to 267 people per square kilometer. and this correspondingly increased the "load" on cultivated land. That half of the country's population is made up of children and young people under 18, and as they grow older, the state would have to build thousands of new houses every week and create 100,000 jobs, and this is almost impossible. India is also unable to build 9,000 new schools and train 400,000 teachers every year. And this is not to mention such a super-problem as providing a rapidly growing population with food. That is why India has attached and attaches particular importance to demographic policy aimed at reducing the birth rate. India was the first developing country to implement a national family planning program as an official government policy.

This happened back in 1951, when the implementation of the first five-year plan for the development of the national economy of the country began. It is important to emphasize that from the very beginning, the family planning program was by no means limited to birth control, but had the main goal of strengthening, through such measures, the well-being of the family as the main unit of society. Over time, it has changed, for example, in 1977, all forms of coercion were excluded from population policy, and even more emphasis was placed on maternal and child health, nutrition, education and women's rights.

At first, demographic policy set the task of transitioning a traditional large family to a family of two or three children. It was held under the slogan: "Two or three children - enough!" , “In time to have a second child, and after the third stop!”, “A small family is a happy family!” etc. After the 1981 census showed a larger population growth than expected, the activity of family planning programs increased, and now with an emphasis on only a two-child family. Accordingly, its slogans were: "Have only two children - the first and last!", "Two children - enough!" etc. With the help of such programs, the government expected to achieve a simple reproduction of the population by the end of this century, and in the 21st century to move to zero growth and, consequently, to stabilize its population. Family planning policy in India provides for a wide variety of promotional, medical, administrative and legal and other measures.

Thousands of family planning centers have been established throughout the country, dealing primarily with its coordinating-administrative and biomedical aspects. They, in particular, take care of the dissemination of new methods of contraception, the use of intrauterine contraceptives, relatively simple sterilization operations, and even provide appropriate monetary rewards.

Every year in India, about 5 million men and women are sterilized, and 50-60 million women use contraceptives. Another very important measure is raising the age of marriage. If in the 50s the average age of marriage for men was 22, and for women a little over 15 years, then already in the 60s it increased to 23 and 17 years, respectively, and later for women - up to 18 years. In India's Seventh Five Year Plan (1986-1990), the costs of family planning programs were further increased and the programs themselves were more integrated with maternal and child health services.

All these efforts have led to certain results. Thus, the total birth rate dropped from 42 per 1,000 inhabitants in 1961 to 30 per 1,000 inhabitants by the early 1990s. This indicates the beginning of the attenuation of the population explosion, but this process, unlike China, is still at an early stage. The average family size today is 5 people. All this is explained primarily by the fact that the implementation of a demographic policy in India encounters numerous obstacles in the form of: some tenets of Hinduism, thousands of years of tradition of early marriages, illiteracy of a significant part of rural residents, various family rituals. It just so happened in India that the role of women in choosing a life partner in most cases remains limited. Compliance with religious and social norms and traditions makes acquaintance and engagement directly between the bride and groom - as is customary in the West - a very difficult and often impossible thing.

The overwhelming majority of marriages are still organized by parents who seek to ensure the inheritance of not only property, but also social status, caste and religious traditions of the clan. Yes, usually the young man himself trusts his parents, believing that they will make a wise decision, or at least offer him a choice of several worthy candidates. The very selection of these candidates is usually carried out with the help of newspapers that publish entire pages of marriage advertisements. On the whole, the available forecasts cannot be called comforting. In 1986, UN experts believed that by the year 2000 the population of India would increase to 964 million people, and in 1988 they raised this bar to 1042 million people. The corresponding forecasts for 2025 were first 1229 and then 1446 million people.

As of 1999, the population of India reached 1 billion people. Average annual population growth declined from 2.2% in the 1950s-1980s to 1.7% in 1990-1998, but absolute figures indicate an annual increase of about 20 million people.

Demographic growth is largely determined by a decrease in the death rate. Life expectancy increased from 22.6 years for men and 22.3 years for women in 1900 respectively to 63.2 and 61.7 years in 1997. During this period, epidemic diseases, especially plague, smallpox, cholera and typhoid fever. Successes were also achieved in the fight against malaria and tuberculosis, expanding the network of medical institutions and developing the system of medical education. Decreased infant mortality. For children under one year old, it decreased from 190 in 1950 to 65.5 per 1,000 newborns in 1997.

The adult literacy rate increased from less than 20% in 1947 to 52% in 1996. There is a gap in the literacy rate between men and women: 65.5% and 38% respectively.

The developed systems of primary and secondary education have significantly increased the burden on colleges and universities. A number of Indian universities meet world standards, however, in the 1980s and 1990s, there was serious concern in the country about the decline in the level of training both in the general education school and in higher education institutions.

Demographics in the USA

Population growth. After the formation of European colonies in America, their population began to grow at a significant pace. At the end of the 17th century, which began with the foundation of the small settlements of Jamestown and Plymouth, approximately 250,000 people lived in 12 colonies. By the middle of the 18th century. the number of colonists increased to almost 1.5 million. The first census, conducted in 1790, registered 3.9 million people. Throughout the 19th century Population growth occurred at a rapid pace, and it reached 31.4 million in 1860 and 76 million in 1900. During the first three decades of the 20th century. The US population increased to 123 million. In 1980 it was 226.5 million, in 1990 it was 249 million, and in 1997 it was 268 million. In terms of population, the United States ranks third in the world after China and India.

The growth of the US population was due to high birth rates and mass immigration, especially during the first three centuries after the founding of the British colonies in North America. In 1800 there were 55 newborns per 1000 inhabitants. By 1860, the birth rate had dropped to 44.3/1000, and in 1920 it was 27.7/1000. The lowest birth rate (18.4/1000) was reached in 1933 and 1936, during the world economic crisis. After the Second World War, the birth rate increased again and in the 1950s was approx. 25/1000, but by 1969 it fell back to 17.7/1000, and by 1975 to 14.6/1000. In the late 1970s - during the 1980s, there was an increase in the birth rate, by the beginning of the 1990s it again decreased to 15.5/1000 (in 1993). In 2004, the population was 299.027 million people.

The overall decline in the birth rate in the country was accompanied by a decrease in mortality, especially infant mortality, so the index of natural population growth (birth rate minus death rate) declined at a slower pace than might have been expected. The death rate fell from 17.2/1000 in 1900 to 13/1000 in 1920 and 10.8/1000 in 1940. From 1950 to 1993 the death rate remained virtually unchanged, in 2004 it was approx. 8.34/1000. The infant mortality rate (including live births only) fell from 99.9/1000 in 1915 to 47/1000 in 1940 and 16.1/1000 in 1975; in 2004 it reached 6.63/1000.

The decline in death rates after 1900 is due mainly to advances in medicine. The most important factor in population growth until the 1920s was immigration - the original source of human resources, thanks to which, in fact, the United States was created. In the 19th century due to an increase in the influx of immigrants, the US population has increased significantly and its composition has changed. The first wave of immigrants began in the 1840s and peaked in 1854, when 428,000 people arrived in the country. During the Civil War, immigration declined, but resumed after it ended, reaching a climax in 1882, when 789,000 people arrived. In the first decade and a half of the 20th century more than 1 million people migrated to the USA every year (1,285,000 in 1907). Then the flow of immigrants decreased, especially after the passage of a restrictive law in 1924. During the years of the global economic crisis and the Second World War, immigration remained at a low level. In the early 1990s, approx. 500 thousand people.

Of course, not all immigrants remained in the United States. From 1820 to 1870, the proportion of "returnees" ranged from 10 to 15% of the total number of immigrants. This figure increased to 24% in 1870-1880 and to 45% in 1900-1910. Later ok. 30% of immigrants left the country.

The US population growth index, which reflects both natural increase and the difference between the number of immigrants and emigrants, is generally on a downward trend. In the 19th century due to the high birth rate, reduced mortality and mass immigration, the annual population growth reached 3% or even more (this is comparable to the current population growth rates in Africa, Latin America and South Asia). In the 20th century the growth rate slowed down due to the decrease in immigration after the 1920s and the decline in the birth rate. In the 1960s, the annual population growth averaged 1.3%, and in the late 1980s-1990s it was less than 1%, in 2004 it was 0.92% per year.

The ethnic and racial composition of the US population is highly diverse. This is mainly the result of immigration from different parts of the world and the importation of slaves from Africa. In the colonial and early national periods, primarily the British moved from Europe, although there were many Scots, Irish and Germans. Among those who arrived in the country in the 1840s and 1850s, Irish and Germans prevailed, fleeing famine and political upheaval. At the end of the 19th century continued to emigrate mainly from Northern and Western Europe, especially from Germany, Great Britain and the Scandinavian countries. By 1900 the composition of immigrants had changed. Although many still came from northwestern Europe, in the early years of the 20th century. most of the "new Americans" came from Italy, Russia and Central European countries. Among the migrants from Central and Eastern Europe there were many Jews who fled religious persecution. Subsequently, a significant proportion of immigrants were immigrants from South America. In the 1920s and 1950s, many Canadians and Mexicans entered the United States. Puerto Ricans (who are not officially considered immigrants) moved to New York in large numbers in the 1940s and 1960s. Altogether, of the nearly 45 million immigrants who entered the United States between 1820 and 1969, 80% were immigrants from European countries, mainly from Germany, Italy, Great Britain and Ireland.

Between 1619 (when the first Africans were brought to Virginia) and 1865 (the year of the abolition of slavery), hundreds of thousands of slaves filled the population of the English colonies, and then the new state that arose in their place. In 1790 African Americans made up 19.3% of the population. Although their numbers continued to grow, the proportion of the country's population fell, reaching a level of 14.1% in 1860 and 9.7% in 1930. Then this figure began to rise again, and in 1990 the proportion of African Americans increased to 12.1%.

Members of other races make up a relatively small but rapidly growing portion of the US population. In 1997, 10 million people (3.7% of the population) considered themselves to be from Asia and Oceania. Another 2.3 million people (0.9%) identified themselves as Native Americans (Indians, Eskimos or Aleuts). About 9.8 million people (3.9%) associated their origin with other races. A special ethnic group is made up of Hispanic Americans, who almost without exception have Native Americans or Africans among their ancestors. In 1997 this group numbered 29.3 million people (11% of the population).

Population geography. The ratio of the urban and rural population, as well as its distribution, has changed significantly since the founding of the state. In 1790, the USA was a country of farmers, and only 5% of the population lived in cities. Even in 1900, about 40% of Americans were in cities with more than 2,500 inhabitants. By 1990, 75.2% of the population lived in cities (including territories adjacent to cities with a population of over 50 thousand inhabitants and characterized by a population density of more than 2.5 thousand people per 1 sq. km). Only ok. 3% of the population were farmers. Cities in the South and West grew especially fast. After the Second World War, the growth of cities was carried out mainly at the expense of the suburbs, while in the central quarters the population was declining. According to demographic forecasts, at the beginning of the 21st century. the share of the urban population will exceed 90%. Three giant metropolitan areas are growing rapidly - along the east coast of the country between Boston and Washington, near the southern shores of the Great Lakes between Chicago and Pittsburgh, and on the Pacific coast between San Francisco and San Diego.

In 1790 the center of the populated area was 37 km east of Baltimore (Maryland), and the country's 3.9 million inhabitants were almost evenly distributed between North and South. Since then, this center has steadily shifted to the west and by 1990 reached the state of Missouri. Another major trend in internal migration of the population was the migration of African Americans from the South to the industrial North and the Pacific coast that began immediately after the First World War. In 1910 ca. 89% of African Americans lived in the South, and in 1990 - only 52%. In the middle of the 20th century counter migration of the white population to the South began, so that after 1960 the share of the South in the US population increased. There was also an outflow of population from the Great Plains region. The dynamics of the regional redistribution of the population is evident from the following data: in 1900, approx. 28% of Americans lived in the Northeast, 35% - in the Midwest, 32% - in the South and 5% - in the West, and by 1997 these figures had changed to 19%, 23%, 35% and 22%, respectively.

Sex and age structure of the population. In 1820, the median age of Americans was 16.7, with half the population under that age and half over that age. In 1950 the median age rose to 30.2 years. A temporary rise in the birth rate after the Second World War led to a decrease in the average age to 27.8 years (in 1969). However, in the 1970s, this figure began to grow again and in 1997 reached 34.4 years. The median age of women is higher than the median age of men, and significantly higher for whites than for African Americans. In 2003, the average age of the female population was 80.05 years and that of the male population was 74.37 years. Throughout the 20th century The proportion of children and adolescents in the country's population has been steadily declining: in 1900, people under the age of 18 accounted for 40% of the population, and in 2003 - only 20.9%. However, after the First World War, with a sharp reduction in mass immigration, the proportion of older people began to grow. In 1910, only 4.3% of the population were over 65 years old, in 2003 - 12.4%. The share of the able-bodied population (from 18 to 65 years old) in the same year was 66.7%.

Until the 1940s, men dominated the population, but already in 1950 the ratio changed in favor of women. In 1994, the proportion of men was 48.8% and women 51.2% of women, although there were more men than women in the under 30 age group. In 1900, life expectancy for newborn girls was 51 years, and for boys - 48. By 1993 it had risen to 78.9 and 72.1 years, respectively.

Demographics in Europe

Europe's population is aging inexorably. This trend has been clearly visible since the end of the 20th century, and will accelerate in the coming decades. Today, the average European has not yet crossed the 40-year milestone. But by 2050, the average age of EU residents will increase by a dozen to 49 years. This is evidenced by the data of the European Statistical Office.

The extent to which the demographic structure of European countries has changed over the past century can be illustrated by the example of Germany, the largest country in the EU in terms of population. Here, the scientists of the Center for the Study of Demographic Changes in Rostock calculated that in 1910 the average age did not even reach 24 years, and in 2003 it already exceeded the 40-year mark.

Demographic pyramid of Europe, data of the United Nations for 2000 For a hundred years, the demographic pyramid of Europe, with the help of which scientists demonstrate the age composition of the population, has become more like a barrel or an onion. In 2000, the largest age group was already 35 to 45, the widest spot on the graph. At the beginning of the last century, the group of newborns was the most numerous. The number of people of certain age groups decreased with increasing age, and this dependence determined the correctness of the faces of the pyramid.

Demographic change has several components. First, it is the birth rate. In the EU as a whole, it is 1.5 children per woman. However, only 2.1 children per woman can ensure natural population growth.

Natural population growth is calculated on the basis of data on the number of births and deaths, without taking into account population migration. This figure was 0.04 per cent in the European Union in 2003. Scientists suggest that the population in Europe will increase slightly by 2025, and only due to immigration, and then begin to decline.

In some EU countries, natural population growth is already below zero. Germany is the leader among them, in which this trend has been observed since 1972. In 1993, Italy joined it, and Austria and Greece, according to the European Commission, "stand on the threshold" of such a development.

While there are fewer children in Europe, the average life expectancy at birth is rising. This is the second important demographic factor. Currently, the average life expectancy in the European Union is 78 years. In the 15 "old" EU members, this indicator reaches 79 years, and in countries that have recently become members of the organization - 74 years.

Figures for individual EU countries differ even more. In the Baltic countries, for example, the average life expectancy for men is 66 years, while in Sweden it is 12 years longer. And if in Spain and France this figure for women reaches almost 84 years, then in Latvia it is 76 years.

Evidence from Eastern European EU member states refutes the conventional wisdom that there is an inverse relationship between living standards and fertility rates. The birth rate in the new member countries, inferior to the "old" ones in terms of per capita income, is not higher, but lower than the average for the EU, and is 1.3 children per woman. In Poland, the Baltic States, Romania and Bulgaria, the population is already declining. In the EU, the largest number of children are born in Ireland, with an average of 2 children per woman. It is followed by France with a score of 1.9, followed by Finland, Sweden, the UK and Denmark.

Migrants also come to Europe through illegal channels from Africa. Demographic changes in Europe will significantly affect the social and economic development of the continent. By 2030, the working population (aged 15 to 64) in Europe will decrease by 20.8 million compared to 2005.

The European Union is developing a strategy designed to mitigate the social and economic consequences of population decline in Europe. The influx of migrants, the third component of demographic development, is already helping to compensate for low birth rates in Europe and will remain an important demographic factor in the future. However, the European Commission points out in a 2007 working paper on demographics that a further increase in migration could further exacerbate the problem of integration of foreigners, which is on the agenda in many EU countries.

Sources

www.krugosvet.ru/ Around the world - online encyclopedia

en.wikipedia.org/ Wikipedia - the free encyclopedia

www.bankreferatov.ru Bank of abstracts

bestreferat.com.ua Best abstracts

psycho.org.ua All about psychology

www.uadream.com Search for tours in Ukraine

www.greek.ru Greece for everyone

English behaviour, demographic; German Verhalten, demografisches. Type of behavior associated with reproduction, migration, population mobility.

Great Definition

Incomplete definition ↓

BEHAVIOR DEMOGRAPHIC

DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAVIOR, a system of interrelated actions or actions aimed at changing or maintaining demography, the state of the subject. The subjects of P. d., as a rule, are otd. an individual, a family, a small group, much less often - a nation, us. region, etc. P. differs in the broad and narrow sense of the term. In the first case, P. d. includes actions related to the reproduction of us. and migration of us., as well as with social mobility. In the second - only with the reproduction of us. directly (with fertility and mortality) or indirectly (with marriage and divorce). P. d. is a complex result of the interaction of fiziol. and psychol. characteristics of the individual, the conditions of his life, as well as the spiritual norms and values ​​of the surrounding groups and society as a whole. In modern demographic literature, P. is more often considered in the narrow sense of the word. The concepts of marital (matrimonial) behavior and reproductive behavior are commonly used. Marriage behavior is understood as the behavior of people in connection with the conclusion and termination of marriages. Its demographically significant aspects are the age of first and subsequent marriages, the age of dissolution of the first and subsequent marriages, the order of marriage, the order of divorce, the duration of the single period before marriage and between marriages. Marital behavior in demography is considered mainly in terms of its impact on reproductive behavior, since most births are carried out in marriage. To denote behavior in relation to the conscious or unconscious destruction of health and, conversely, its preservation, the term ´sanitary´ or ´vital´ behavior is used, however, this area of ​​​​research has not yet been developed, although these types of behavior are used in the study of mortality factors and are relevant for the analysis of processes play us. Migration behavior is associated with the movement of people from one population. point to another. Diff. P.'s types are closely connected and influence each other.

Some demographers propose to single out active and passive P. d. For marital behavior, the set of actions and deeds leading to marriage will act as active; as a passive - to refrain from entering into marriage or to the dissolution of marriage. For reproductive behavior, it is possible to distinguish active actions aimed at giving birth from passive actions associated with preventing pregnancy.

P. d. is the subject of study of a number of sciences: demography, sociology, social psychology, law. Sociology considers the impact of industries. relationships and produces. forces, cultural traditions, samples, norms and values ​​that exist in society, on the change in P. d. Social psychology focuses on the influence of group and interpersonal factors (including intra-family) on the change in P. d. In legal research considered legal. norms related to P. d. (regulation of divorces, abortions, etc.). Demography studies Ch. arr. results P. d. in the form of changes in marriage, fertility, divorce, mortality in decomp. age groups and diff. territories. In demographic literature, the term ´P. d.´ began to be used relatively recently. Interest in it arose in connection with the realization of the fact that without research on P. d. and consciousness at the level of the individual and family, it is difficult to explain and predict the change in demographics. processes. In the 70s and 80s. studies of P. d., which comprehensively take into account the influence of decomp. on it, have become widespread. social, economic, environmental and other factors. In particular, studies of the influence of marriage and family relations on P. d. and, above all, on reproductive behavior, are gaining more and more interest.

P.'s researches play an essential role in definition of osn. directions of the demographic policy of the society. Under socialism, this policy is aimed at the optimal combination of societies. and personal needs in the field of fertility, marriage, migration, etc. To achieve this goal, a thorough study of P. d. and the factors influencing it is necessary.

Belova V. A., Darsky L. E., Statistics of opinions in the study of fertility, M., 1972; Larmin O. V., Methodological problems of studying population, M., 1974; Perevedentsev V.I., Methods for studying population migration, M., 1976; Vishnevsky A. G., Demographic Revolution, M., 1976; System of knowledge about the population, M., 1976; Kharchev A. G., Matskovsky M. S., Modern family and its problems, M., 1978; Urlanis B. Ts., Evolution of life expectancy, M., 1978; Antonov A. I. Sociology of fertility, M., 1980.

Great Definition

Incomplete definition ↓

DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAVIOR, a system of interrelated actions or actions aimed at changing or maintaining demography, the state of the subject. The subjects of demographic behavior, as a rule, are an individual, a family, a small group, much less often - a nation, the population of a region, etc.

Demographic behavior is different. in the broad and narrow sense of the term. In the first case, demographic behavior includes actions related to population reproduction and population migration, as well as social mobility. In the second - only with the reproduction of the population directly (with fertility and mortality) or indirectly (with marriage and divorce). Demographic behavior is a complex result of the interaction of the physiological and psychological characteristics of the individual, the conditions of his life, as well as the spiritual norms and values ​​of the surrounding groups and society as a whole.

In modern demographic literature, demographic behavior in the narrow sense of the word is more often considered. Commonly used concepts of marriage behavior and reproductive behavior. Marriage behavior is understood as the behavior of people in connection with the conclusion and termination of marriages. Its demographically significant aspects are the age of first and subsequent marriages, the age of dissolution of the first and subsequent marriages, the order of marriage, the order of divorce, the duration of the single period before marriage and between marriages. Marital behavior in demography is considered mainly in terms of its impact on reproductive behavior, since most births are carried out in marriage. To denote behavior in relation to the conscious or unconscious destruction of health and, conversely, its preservation, the term "sanitary" or "vital" behavior is used, but this area of ​​\u200b\u200bresearch has not yet been developed, although these types of behavior are used in the study of mortality factors and are relevant for the analysis of processes reproduction of the population.

Migration behavior is associated with the movement of people from one locality to another. Different types of demographic behavior are closely related and influence each other.

Some demographers propose to single out active and passive demographic behavior. For marital behavior, the set of actions and deeds leading to marriage will act as an active one; as a passive - to refrain from entering into marriage or to the dissolution of marriage. For reproductive behavior, it is possible to distinguish active actions aimed at giving birth from passive actions associated with preventing pregnancy.

Demographic behavior is the subject of study of a number of sciences: demography, sociology, social psychology, and law. Sociology considers the impact of production relations and productive forces, cultural traditions, patterns, norms and values ​​that exist in society, on changing demographic behavior. Social psychology focuses its attention on the influence of group and interpersonal factors (including those within the family) on changes in demographic behavior. Legal studies deal with legal norms related to demographic behavior (regulation of divorces, abortions, etc.). Demography studies the global results of demographic behavior in the form of changes in marriage, fertility, divorce, mortality in different age groups and in different territories.

Studies of demographic behavior play an essential role in determining the main directions of a society's demographic policy. This policy is aimed at the optimal combination of social and personal needs in the field of fertility, marriage, migration, etc. To achieve this goal, a thorough study of demographic knowledge and the factors influencing it is necessary.