Climate change: who is to blame and what to do? Why the climate has changed and how people affect the climate Global climate change causes these changes.

The climate on our planet is constantly changing, and recently the rate of these changes has been accelerating. The global temperature is rising and this is having a negative impact on the world as a whole. In this review, there are "ten" facts that will give an understanding of how dangerous the changes taking place on the planet are.

1. Greenhouse effect

Heat waves are on the rise, both in number and duration, as well as the associated heatstroke and deaths. As cities around the planet experience the greenhouse effect during the summer, they are especially vulnerable.

2. Dengue fever

It would seem that developed countries have long forgotten about a number of diseases. But American scientists have begun to sound the alarm: the people of the United States are becoming more susceptible to dengue fever and malaria.

3. Fresh water

Although the sea level is rising, the availability of fresh water is decreasing all the time. This happens due to the melting of ice fields, as well as drought.

4. Extreme weather

The frequency of extreme weather events is expected to increase every year. For example, tropical storms will occur more frequently and be more destructive. If the climate continues to change at the current rate, by 2050 the number of coral reefs in the ocean will be significantly reduced.

5. Ground smog

Warm stale air in cities increases the formation of ground smog. Half of the population in developed countries already lives in cities that do not meet generally accepted air quality standards, and in China this has already become a nationwide disaster.

6. Agreement between Tuvalu and New Zealand

Some island countries are already considering evacuation plans. For example, Tuvalu also concluded an agreement with New Zealand regarding resettlement in this country in the event of a complete flooding of the islands of Tuvalu, which are more and more submerged every year.

7. $700 billion down the drain

Climate change is hitting hard on many countries. By 2030, the global economy is projected to lose $700 billion due to climate change costs.

8. Allergy season

Allergy season is getting longer. This has an adverse effect on the respiratory health of people suffering from allergies (which are almost half the population).

9. Food problem

Food problems may soon begin. First, warmer temperatures increase the spread of food-borne diseases such as salmonellosis. And secondly, crop production around the world is heavily affected by droughts. Global harvests of wheat and corn are already declining around the world.

10. Demographics

Extreme weather and declining agricultural production in developing countries will start causing more conflict and migration. And opening sea lanes in the Arctic due to receding ice could lead to sovereignty issues and international conflicts. Desert expansion and rising sea levels will also lead to demographic and political problems due to higher levels of migration.

11. Flora and fauna

Many of the changes the planet is undergoing are irreversible. For example, various species of flora and fauna completely disappear.

12. Arctic

By 2050, the Arctic will be almost completely ice-free during the summer. Already now, due to the melting of the ice, polar bears cannot hunt for food. This leads to their starvation and habitat reduction,

13. CO2

The acidity level of ocean water is rising due to the increase in carbonic acid levels (due to CO2 in the atmosphere). This will have negative consequences for many types of marine life.

14. Polarization of society

The worst impacts of climate change will be on children, the elderly and the poor, as they will not be able to cope with drastic changes in food availability and drastic changes in living conditions. Climate change is likely to polarize society between those who will be able to cope with it (wealthier countries) and those who will not be able to do so (poor countries).

15. The death of 30% of plant and animal species

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has published a rather dire forecast. If their forecasts regarding temperature turn out to be correct, then up to 30% of plant and animal species will completely die out by the end of the 21st century.

As a result of studying the materials of meteorological observations carried out in all regions of the globe, it has been established that the climate is not constant, but is subject to certain changes. Started at the end of the 19th century. warming especially intensified in the 1920s and 30s, but then a slow cooling began, which stopped in the 1960s. Studies by geologists of sedimentary deposits of the earth's crust have shown that much greater climate changes have occurred in past epochs. Since these changes were due to natural processes, they are called natural.

Along with natural factors, global climate conditions are increasingly influenced by human economic activity. This influence began to manifest itself thousands of years ago, when, in connection with the development of agriculture in arid regions, artificial irrigation began to be widely used. The spread of agriculture in the forest zone also led to some climate changes, as it required deforestation over large areas. However, climate change was mainly limited to changes in meteorological conditions only in the lower air layer in those areas where significant economic activities were carried out.

In the second half of the XX century. In connection with the rapid development of industry and the growth of energy availability, climate change threats have arisen throughout the planet. Modern scientific research has established that the impact of anthropogenic activity on the global climate is associated with the action of several factors, of which the most important are:

• an increase in the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide, as well as some other gases entering the atmosphere in the course of economic activity, which enhances the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere;
• increase in the mass of atmospheric aerosols;
• an increase in the amount of thermal energy generated in the process of economic activity entering the atmosphere.

The first of these causes of anthropogenic climate change is of the greatest importance. The essence of "" is as follows. The atmosphere contains a certain concentration of "radiation-active" gases, which are of great importance for life on Earth, since they trap heat in the lower layers of the atmosphere. Without these gases, the temperature of the earth's surface would be about 33°C lower. However, increasing the concentration greenhouse gases(carbon dioxide - C0 2, methane - CH 4, nitrous oxide - N,0, chlorofluorocarbons, etc.) near the earth's surface leads to the formation of a certain "gas curtain", which does not transmit excess infrared radiation from the Earth's surface back into space, as this should be at normal concentrations of these gases. As a result, a significant part of the energy remains in the surface layer, which causes warming at its very surface.

The main contribution to warming is made by carbon dioxide (65% of all sources). The increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is determined by the formation of CO 2 as a result of the combustion of coal, oil products and other fuels. The influx of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere is so great that it is technically unfeasible to stop this process in the coming decades. In addition, energy consumption in developing countries is starting to rise rapidly. The gradual increase in the amount of CO and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is already having a noticeable impact on the Earth's climate, changing it towards warming. The general trend towards an increase in global average temperature near the earth's surface is intensifying, which has already led to an increase in the 20th century. to an increase in the average air temperature by 0.6°C.

As a result of a fourfold increase in the second half of the 20th century. As a result of carbon emissions, the Earth's atmosphere began to heat up at an increasing rate (Fig. 1). According to UN forecasts, the subsequent global increase in air temperature in the 21st century will be from 1.5 to 4°C.

Rice. 1. Change in the average annual air temperature in the surface layer of the Earth (1860-2000)

The following effects of global warming are predicted:

• rise in the level of the world ocean due to the melting of glaciers and polar ice (over the past 100 years by 10-25 cm), which, in turn, results in flooding of territories, displacement of the boundaries of swamps and lowland areas, increased salinity of water in the mouths of rivers, as well as potential loss of a person's place of residence;
• change in precipitation (precipitation increases in northern Europe and decreases in southern Europe);
• change in the hydrological regime, quantity and quality of water resources;
• impact on ecological systems, agriculture and forestry (mixing of climatic zones in a northerly direction and migration of wild fauna species, changes in the seasonality of growth and productivity of land in agriculture and forestry).

All of the above factors can have a catastrophic impact on human health, the economy and society as a whole. The increasing frequency of droughts and the subsequent crisis in agriculture increase the threat of hunger and social stability in some regions of the world. Difficulties with water supply in countries with a warm climate stimulate the spread of tropical and subtropical diseases. As warming trends intensify, weather patterns become more volatile and climate-related natural disasters become more destructive. The damage caused by natural disasters to the world economy is increasing (Fig. 2). In 1998 alone, it exceeded the damage caused by natural disasters in the entire 1980s, tens of thousands of people died and about 25 million "environmental refugees" were forced to leave their homes.

Rice. 2. Economic damage to the world economy, 1960-2000 (billion US dollars, annually)

At the end of the XX century. humanity came to understand the need to solve one of the most complex and extremely dangerous environmental problems associated with climate change, and in the mid-1970s. began active work in this direction. At the World Climate Conference in Geneva (1979), the foundations of the World Climate Program were laid. In accordance with the resolution of the UN General Assembly on the protection of the global climate for the benefit of present and future generations, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) was adopted. The purpose of the convention is to stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that will not have a dangerous impact on the global climate system. Moreover, the solution of this task is supposed to be carried out in a timeframe sufficient for the natural adaptation of ecosystems to climate change and avoiding the threat to food production, as well as ensuring further economic development on a sustainable basis.

To reduce the threat of global warming, it is necessary first of all to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Most of these emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels, which still provide more than 75% of the world's energy. The rapidly increasing number of cars on the planet increases the risk of further emissions. Stabilization of CO in the atmosphere at a safe level is possible with an overall reduction (by about 60%) of greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming. Further development of energy-saving technologies and wider use of renewable energy sources can help in this.

At the III Conference of the countries that signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Kyoto, the Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC (1997) was adopted, which fixed certain quantitative obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions for industrialized countries and countries with economies in transition. At the time of signing the Kyoto Protocol, greenhouse gas emissions were distributed as follows: USA - 36.1%, EU countries - 25.0, Russia - 17.4, Japan - 8.5, countries of Eastern Europe - 7.4, Canada - 3, 3, Australia and New Zealand - 2.3% of global emissions. The implementation of the Kyoto Protocol could lead to significant progress, since the protocol obliges industrialized countries to go on emission limits and reduce total greenhouse gas emissions in the period 2008-2012. by an average of 5% compared to the 1990 level. Achievement of the first group of goals set in the Kyoto Protocol is considered by the UN only as the beginning of movement towards what needs to be done to slow down the process of global warming, and in the long term - to reduce the risk of global climate change.

The world community had high hopes for the 15th UN Conference on Climate Change (Copenhagen, 2009). On the eve of its opening, new data on the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by individual countries were published: China - 20.8%; USA - 19.9; Russia-5.5; India-4.6; Japan-4.3; Germany - 2.8; Canada - 2.0; Great Britain - 1.8; South Korea - 1.7; Iran - 1.6% of the total CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. The conference developed recommendations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and annually allocate $100 billion to small states to finance environmental programs until 2020. However, disagreements between developed and developing countries did not allow the adoption of a legally binding document on the reduction of harmful emissions.

In Russia, a climate doctrine has been developed and approved, in which the state declares that it is ready to allocate resources for systematic climate observations, as well as for fundamental applied research in the field of climate and related fields of science. Russia is concentrating its efforts to the maximum extent possible on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing their absorption by sinks and accumulators. This is supposed to be achieved with the consistent introduction of energy-saving technologies and alternative energy sources. Russia has assumed obligations to further mitigate the anthropogenic impact on the climate: by 2020, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% compared to 1990 (EU countries - by 20%).

Studying climate change

Plant remains, landforms and glacial deposits, rocks and fossils contain information about significant fluctuations in average temperatures and precipitation throughout geological time. Climate change can also be studied from tree rings, alluvial deposits, ocean and lake sediments, and organic peatlands. Over the past few million years, there has been a general cooling of the climate, and now, judging by the continuous reduction of the polar ice sheets, we seem to be at the end of the ice age.

Climate change over a historical period can sometimes be reconstructed from information about crop failures, floods, abandoned settlements, and migrations of peoples. Continuous series of air temperature measurements are available only for meteorological stations located mainly in the Northern Hemisphere. They cover only a little over one century. These data indicate that over the past 100 years, the average temperature on the globe has increased by almost 0.5 °C. This change does not occur smoothly, but abruptly - sharp warmings were replaced by stable stages.

Experts from various fields of knowledge have proposed numerous hypotheses to explain the causes of climate change. Some believe that climatic cycles are determined by periodic fluctuations in solar activity with an interval of about 11 years. Annual and seasonal temperatures could be influenced by changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit, which led to a change in the distance between the Sun and the Earth. Currently, the Earth is closest to the Sun in January, but approximately 10,000 years ago, it was in this position in July. According to another hypothesis, depending on the angle of inclination of the earth's axis, the amount of solar radiation entering the Earth changed, which affected the general circulation of the atmosphere. It is also possible that the polar axis of the Earth occupied a different position. If the geographic poles were at the latitude of the modern equator, then, accordingly, the climatic zones also shifted.

Geographical theories explain long-term climate fluctuations by movements of the earth's crust and changes in the position of continents and oceans. In the light of global plate tectonics, continents have moved over geological time. As a result, their position in relation to the oceans changed, as well as in latitude, etc.

Large masses of dust and gases released into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions occasionally became an obstacle to solar radiation and led to cooling of the earth's surface. An increase in the concentration of certain gases in the atmosphere exacerbates the overall warming trend.

The impact of climate on the life and economic activity of people

A person living in a certain area gets used to, adapts (from the Latin adaptation - adaptation) to the conditions of his environment, including the climatic features of the area. His clothes, shoes, food, housing, occupations are the result of this adaptation. It has a significant impact on economic activity.

Adaptation is necessary for a person when climatic conditions change.

The geological age of our planet is approximately 4.5 billion years. During this period, the Earth has changed dramatically. The composition of the atmosphere, the mass of the planet itself, the climate - at the beginning of existence, everything was completely different. The red-hot ball very slowly became the way we are used to seeing it now. Tectonic plates collided, forming ever new mountain systems. On a gradually cooling planet, seas and oceans formed. Continents appeared and disappeared, their shape and size changed. The earth began to rotate more slowly. The first plants appeared, and then life itself. Accordingly, over the past billions of years, cardinal changes have taken place on the planet in moisture circulation, heat circulation and atmospheric composition. Climate change has occurred throughout the existence of the Earth.

Holocene Epoch

The Holocene is part of the Quaternary period. In other words, this is an epoch that began about 12 thousand years ago and continues to the present. The Holocene began with the end of the ice age, and since then climate change on the planet has been moving towards global warming. This era is often referred to as the interglacial, since there have already been several ice ages in the entire climatic history of the planet.

The last global cooling occurred approximately 110,000 years ago. About 14 thousand years ago, warming began, gradually covering the entire planet. The glaciers that at that time covered most of the Northern Hemisphere began to melt and collapse. Naturally, all this did not happen overnight. For a very long period, the planet was shaken by strong temperature fluctuations, the glaciers either advanced or retreated again. All this also affected the level of the World Ocean.

Holocene periods

During numerous studies, scientists decided to divide the Holocene into several time periods depending on the climate. Approximately 12-10 thousand years ago, the ice sheets disappeared, the post-glacial period began. In Europe, the tundra began to disappear, it was replaced by birch, pine and taiga forests. This time is called the Arctic and Subarctic period.

Then came the boreal era. The taiga pushed the tundra further north. Broad-leaved forests appeared in Southern Europe. During this time, the climate was predominantly cool and dry.

Approximately 6 thousand years ago, the Atlantean era began, during which the air became warm and humid, much warmer than today. This period of time is considered the climatic optimum of the entire Holocene. Half was covered with birch forests. Europe abounded in a great variety of heat-loving plants. At the same time, the extent of temperate forests was much further north. Dark coniferous forests grew on the shores of the Barents Sea, and the taiga reached Cape Chelyuskin. On the site of the modern Sahara there was a savannah, and the water level in Lake Chad was 40 meters higher than the modern one.

Then climate change happened again. A cold snap set in, lasting about 2,000 years. This period of time is called subboreal. Mountain ranges in Alaska, Iceland, in the Alps acquired glaciers. Landscape zones have shifted closer to the equator.

Approximately 2.5 thousand years ago, the last period of the modern Holocene, the Subatlantic, began. The climate of this era became cooler and wetter. Peat bogs began to appear, the tundra gradually began to press on the forests, and the forests on the steppes. Around the 14th century, the cooling of the climate began, leading to the Little Ice Age, which lasted until the middle of the 19th century. At this time, invasions of glaciers were recorded in the mountain ranges of Northern Europe, Iceland, Alaska and the Andes. In different parts of the world, the climate has not changed synchronously. The causes of the onset of the Little Ice Age are still unknown. According to scientists, the climate could change due to increases in volcanic eruptions and a decrease in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

Start of meteorological observations

The first appeared at the end of the 18th century. Since that time, constant monitoring of climatic fluctuations has been carried out. It can be reliably stated that the warming that began after the Little Ice Age continues to the present.

Since the end of the 19th century, an increase in the average global temperature of the planet has been recorded. In the middle of the 20th century there was a slight cooling, which did not affect the climate in general. Since the mid-1970s, it has become warmer again. According to scientists, over the past century, the global temperature of the Earth has increased by 0.74 degrees. The largest increase in this indicator has been recorded in the last 30 years.

Climate change invariably affects the state of the oceans. An increase in global temperature leads to the expansion of water, and hence to an increase in its level. There are also changes in the distribution of precipitation, which, in turn, can affect the flow of rivers and glaciers.

According to observations, the level of the World Ocean over the past 100 years has risen by 5 cm. Scientists associate climate warming with an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide and a significant increase in the greenhouse effect.

climate-forming factors

Scientists have conducted many archaeological studies and came to the conclusion that the climate of the planet has changed dramatically more than once. Many hypotheses have been put forward in this regard. According to one of the opinions, if the distance between the Earth and the Sun remains the same, as well as the speed of rotation of the planet and the angle of the axis, then the climate will remain stable.

External drivers of climate change:

1. The change in the solar radiation leads to the transformation of solar radiation fluxes.
2. Movements of tectonic plates affect land orography as well as ocean levels and circulation.
3. The gas composition of the atmosphere, in particular the concentration of methane and carbon dioxide.
4. Change in the tilt of the Earth's axis of rotation.
5. Changes in the parameters of the planet's orbit with respect to the Sun.
6. Terrestrial and space catastrophes.

Human activity and its impact on climate

The causes of climate change are connected, among other things, with the fact that humanity has intervened in nature throughout its existence. Deforestation, plowing, etc. lead to transformations in the humidity and wind regimes.

When people make changes to the surrounding nature, draining swamps, creating artificial reservoirs, cutting down forests or planting new ones, building cities, etc., the microclimate changes. The forest strongly influences the wind regime, which determines how the snow cover will fall, how much the soil will freeze.

Green spaces in cities reduce the impact of solar radiation, increase air humidity, reduce the temperature difference in the daytime and evening, and reduce air dustiness.

If people cut down forests on the hills, then in the future this leads to a washout of the soil. Also, the decrease in the number of trees reduces the global temperature. However, this means an increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air, which is not only not absorbed by trees, but is also additionally released during the decomposition of wood. All this compensates for the decrease in global temperature and leads to its increase.

Industry and its impact on the climate

The causes of climate change lie not only in general warming, but also in the activities of mankind. People have increased the concentration in the air of substances such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane, tropospheric ozone, chlorofluorocarbons. All this ultimately leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect, and the consequences may be irreversible.

Every day, industrial plants emit many hazardous gases into the air. Transportation is used everywhere, polluting the atmosphere with its emissions. A lot of carbon dioxide is formed when oil and coal are burned. Even agriculture causes considerable damage to the atmosphere. Approximately 14% of all emissions come from this sector. This includes plowing fields, burning waste, burning the savannah, manure, fertilizers, animal husbandry, etc. The greenhouse effect helps maintain the temperature balance on the planet, but human activity enhances this effect at times. And this can lead to disaster.

Why should we be afraid of climate change?

97% of the world's climatologists are sure that everything has changed dramatically in the last 100 years. And the main problem of climate change is anthropogenic activity. It’s impossible to say for sure how serious this situation is, but there are many reasons for concern:

UN convention

The governments of most countries on the planet are seriously afraid of what the consequences of climate change could be. More than 20 years ago, an international treaty was created - the Framework Convention on Climate Change. All possible measures to prevent global warming are considered here. Now the convention has been ratified by 186 countries, including Russia. All participants are differentiated into 3 groups: industrial with economic development and developing countries.

The UN Convention on Climate Change is fighting to reduce the growth of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and further stabilize indicators. This can be achieved either by increasing the sink of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or by reducing their emissions. The first option requires a large number of young forests that will absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and the second option will be achieved if the consumption of fossil fuels is reduced. All ratified countries agree that the world is undergoing global climate change. The UN is ready to do everything possible to mitigate the consequences of the impending strike.

Many countries participating in the convention have come to the conclusion that joint projects and programs will be the most effective. Currently, there are more than 150 such projects. Officially, there are 9 such programs in Russia, and more than 40 unofficially.

At the end of 1997, the Convention on Climate Change signed the Kyoto Protocol, which stipulated that countries with economies in transition undertake obligations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The protocol has been ratified by 35 countries.

Our country also took part in the implementation of this protocol. Climate change in Russia has doubled the number of natural disasters. Even if we take into account that boreal forests are located on the territory of the state, they cannot cope with all greenhouse gas emissions. It is necessary to improve and increase forest ecosystems, to carry out large-scale measures to reduce emissions from industrial enterprises.

Predictions of the effects of global warming

The essence of climate change in the last century is global warming. According to the worst forecasts, further irrational activities of mankind can increase the temperature of the Earth by 11 degrees. Climate change will be irreversible. The rotation of the planet will slow down, many species of animals and plants will die. The level of the World Ocean will rise so much that many islands and most of the coastal areas will be flooded. The Gulf Stream will change its course, leading to a new Little Ice Age in Europe. There will be widespread cataclysms, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, droughts, tsunamis, etc. The melting of the ice of the Arctic and Antarctica will begin.

For humanity, the consequences will be catastrophic. In addition to the need to survive in conditions of strong natural anomalies, people will have many other problems. In particular, the number of cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, psychological disorders will increase, outbreaks of epidemics will begin. There will be an acute shortage of food and drinking water.

What to do?

To avoid the effects of climate change, the first step is to reduce the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Humanity should switch to new energy sources, which should be low-carbohydrate and renewable. Sooner or later, this issue will be acute for the world community, since the resource currently used - mineral fuel - is non-renewable. Someday scientists will have to create new, more efficient technologies.

It is also necessary to reduce the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, and only the restoration of forest areas can help with this.

It is required to apply maximum efforts to stabilize the global temperature on Earth. But even if this fails, humanity must try to achieve minimal effects of global warming.

It's no secret that the climate of our planet is changing, and recently it has been happening very quickly. Snow falls in Africa, and incredible heat is observed in our latitudes in summer. Many different theories have already been put forward about the causes and likely consequences of such a change. Some talk about the coming apocalypse, while others convince that there is nothing wrong with that. True, Ru tried to figure out what the causes of climate change are, who is to blame and what to do.

It's all because of the melting of the Arctic ice...

The Arctic ice that covers the Arctic Ocean did not allow the inhabitants of temperate latitudes to freeze in winter. "The reduction in Arctic ice extent is directly related to heavy winter snowfall in temperate latitudes and extreme heat in summer," said Stephen Vavrus, senior fellow at the Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies.

The scientist explained that the heated regions above the regions in temperate latitudes and the cold Arctic air created a certain difference in atmospheric pressure. Air masses moved from west to east, causing ocean currents to move and creating strong winds. "Now the Arctic is moving into a new state," says scientist David Titley, who worked for the US Navy. He noted that the process of ice melting is very fast, and by 2020 the Arctic will be completely free of ice in summer.

Recall that the Antarctic and the Arctic work like huge air conditioners: any weather anomalies quickly moved and were destroyed by winds and currents. Recently, due to the melting of ice, the air temperature in the polar regions has been rising, so the natural mechanism of "mixing" the weather stops. As a result, weather anomalies (heat, snowfalls, frosts or showers) “get stuck” in one area much longer than before.

Global warming on earth

UN specialists predict disasters for our planet in the near future due to global warming. Today, everyone has already begun to get used to the crazy tricks of the weather, realizing that something utterly going on with the climate. The main threat is the production activity of man, since a lot of carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere. According to the theories of some experts, this delays the thermal radiation of the Earth, leads to overheating, resembling the greenhouse effect.

Over the past 200 years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by a third, and the average temperature on the planet has risen by 0.6 degrees. Temperatures in the northern hemisphere of the planet rose more in a century than in the previous thousand years. If the same rates of industrial growth continue on Earth, then by the end of this century, global climate change will threaten humanity - the temperature will rise by 2-6 degrees, and the oceans will rise by 1.6 meters.

To prevent this from happening, the Kyoto Protocol was developed, the main goal of which is to limit carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere. It should be noted that warming in itself is not so dangerous. The climate that was 50 centuries BC will return to us. Our civilization in those comfortable conditions developed normally. Not warming is dangerous, but its suddenness. Climate change is happening so fast that it leaves no time for humanity to adapt to these new conditions.

The people of Africa and Asia, which, moreover, are now experiencing a demographic boom, will suffer the most from climate change. As noted by Robert Watson, head of the UN panel of experts, warming will adversely affect agriculture, there will be terrible droughts, which will cause a lack of drinking water and various epidemics. In addition, abrupt climate change leads to the formation of destructive typhoons, which have become more frequent in recent years.

Consequences of global warming

The consequences can be truly catastrophic. Deserts will expand, floods and storms will become more frequent, fever and malaria will spread. Yields will drop significantly in Asia and Africa, but they will rise in Southeast Asia. Floods will become more frequent in Europe, Holland and Venice will go into the depths of the sea. New Zealand and Australia will be thirsty, and the east coast of the United States will be in a zone of destructive storms, there will be coastal erosion. Ice drift in the Northern Hemisphere will start two weeks earlier. The ice cover of the Arctic will be reduced by about 15 percent. In Antarctica, the ice will recede by 7-9 degrees. Tropical ice will also melt in the mountains of South America, Africa and Tibet. Migratory birds will spend more time in the north.

What should Russia expect from climate change?

Russia, according to some scientists, will suffer from global warming 2-2.5 times more than the rest of the planet. This is due to the fact that the Russian Federation is buried in snow. White reflects the sun, and black - on the contrary, attracts. Widespread snowmelt will change the reflectivity and cause additional warming of the land. As a result, wheat will be grown in Arkhangelsk, and watermelons in St. Petersburg. Global warming can deal a strong blow to the Russian economy as well, as the permafrost begins to melt under the cities of the Far North, where the pipelines that support our economy are located.

What to do?

Now the problem of controlling carbon dioxide emissions into the atmosphere is being solved with the help of the quota system provided for by the Kyoto Protocol. Within the framework of this system, governments of various countries set limits for energy and other enterprises on emissions of substances that pollute the atmosphere. First of all, it concerns carbon dioxide. These permits can be freely bought and sold. For example, a certain industrial enterprise has reduced the volume of emissions, as a result of which they have an "surplus" of the quota.

These surpluses they sell to other enterprises, which are cheaper to buy them than to take real measures to reduce emissions. Dishonest businessmen earn good money on this. This approach does little to improve the situation with climate change. Therefore, some experts have proposed introducing a direct tax on carbon dioxide emissions.

However, this decision was never made. Many agree that quotas or taxes are ineffective. There is a need to encourage a shift from fossil fuels to innovative energy technologies that add little or no increase in greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Two economists from McGill University,

Christopher Green and Isabelle Galyana recently presented a project that proposed $100 billion annually in energy technology research. The money for this can be taken from the tax on carbon dioxide emissions. These funds would be enough to introduce new production technologies that would not pollute the atmosphere. According to economists, every dollar spent on scientific research will help to avoid $11. damage from climate change.

There is another way. It is difficult and expensive, but it can completely solve the problem of melting glaciers if all the countries of the Northern Hemisphere act decisively and together. Some experts propose to create a hydraulic structure in the Bering Strait capable of regulating water exchange between the Arctic,

Pacific and Atlantic oceans. In some circumstances, it should act as a dam and prevent the passage of water from the Pacific Ocean to the Arctic Ocean, and in other circumstances - as a powerful pumping station that will pump water from the Arctic Ocean to the Pacific. This maneuver artificially creates the mode of the end of the ice age. The climate is changing, every inhabitant of our Earth feels it. And it changes very quickly. Therefore, it is necessary for countries to unite and find optimal solutions to overcome this problem. After all, everyone will suffer from climate change.

Expert opinion

Russian scientists do not always agree with the forecasts and hypotheses of their Western colleagues. Pravda.Ru asked Andrey Shmakin, head of the climatology laboratory of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Geographical Sciences, to comment on this topic.

Only non-specialists, non-meteorologists talk about cooling here. If you read our hydrometeorological service reports, it clearly states that warming is on the way.

What awaits us all, no one knows. Now it's warming up. The consequences are very different. There are positive ones, and there are negative ones. In Russia, warming is simply more pronounced than in many other regions of the world, this is true, and the consequences can be both positive and negative. What is the effect, what are the advantages - this must be carefully considered.

Let's say a negative phenomenon is yes, the thawing of permafrost, the spread of diseases, there may be some increase in forest fires. But there are also positives. These are the reduction of the cold season, the lengthening of the agricultural season, the increase in the productivity of grasses and grass communities, and forests. Lots of different consequences. Opening of the North Sea route for navigation, lengthening of this navigation. And this is not done on the basis of some hasty statements.

How fast is climate change progressing?

This is a slow process. In any case, you can adapt to it and develop adaptation measures. This is a process on the scale of several decades, at least, and even more. It's not like tomorrow - "that's it, goons, grab your bags - the station is leaving", there is no such thing.

Do our scientists have a lot of work on this topic?

A lot of. For starters, take a few years ago there was a report called "Assessment report on climate change in Russia." It was published by the Russian hydrometeorological service with the involvement of scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences and universities. This is a serious analytical work, everything is considered there, how the climate is changing, what are the consequences for different regions of Russia.

Is there any way to slow down this process? Kyoto protocol, for example?

In the practical sense, the Kyoto Protocol brings very few results, namely those that are declared in it - to influence climate change, it is practically ineffective. Simply because the emission reductions it provides are extremely small, they have little effect on the overall global picture of these elections. It's just not efficient.

Another thing is that he paved the way for agreements in this area. It was the first agreement of its kind. If the parties then acted actively and tried to work out new agreements, this could bring some results. Now new documents have come into force instead of the Kyoto Protocol, it has expired. And they are still just as little effective in the main. Some countries have no restrictions at all, some have very small restrictions on emissions. In general, it is difficult technologically, because it is almost impossible to completely switch to such technologies in order not to produce any emissions into the atmosphere. This is a very expensive undertaking, no one will go for it. Therefore, rely only on this ...

Any other measures?

Firstly, it is not considered absolutely established that in general a person influences the climate system so much. Of course, it influences, this is undoubted, but the degree of this influence is a matter of discussion. Different scholars hold different points of view.

The measures should basically be apparently adaptive. Because even without any person, the climate is still changing according to its internal laws. It's just that humanity should be ready for climate change in different directions and taking into account the effects that this can generate.

Changing of the climate- fluctuations in the climate of the Earth as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from long-term values ​​over a period of time from decades to millions of years. Changes in both mean values ​​of weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology. The cause of climate change is dynamic processes on the Earth, external influences such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation, and, according to one version, more recently, human activity. Recently, the term "climate change" has been commonly used (especially in the context of environmental policy) to refer to changes in the current climate.

Drivers of climate change

Climate change is caused by changes in the earth's atmosphere, processes occurring in other parts of the earth such as oceans, glaciers, and effects associated with human activities. The external processes that shape the climate are changes in solar radiation and the Earth's orbit.

• change in size, topography and relative position of continents and oceans,
• change in the luminosity of the sun
• changes in the parameters of the Earth's orbit and axis,
• change in the transparency of the atmosphere and its composition as a result of changes in the volcanic activity of the Earth,
• change in the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO 2 and CH 4) in the atmosphere,
• change in the reflectivity of the Earth's surface (albedo),
• change in the amount of heat available in the depths of the ocean.
• change in the natural sublayer of the Earth between the core and the earth's crust, due to the pumping of oil and gas.

Climate Change on Earth

Weather is the daily state of the atmosphere. The weather is a chaotic non-linear dynamic system. Climate is the average state of the weather and is predictable. Climate includes such variables as average temperature, rainfall, number of sunny days, and other variables that can be measured in a particular place. However, there are also processes on Earth that can affect the climate.

glaciation

Glaciers are recognized as one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change. They significantly increase in size during climate cooling (the so-called "little ice ages") and decrease during climate warming. Glaciers grow and melt due to natural changes and under the influence of external influences. In the last century, glaciers have not been able to regenerate enough ice during winters to replace ice loss during the summer months.

The most significant climatic processes over the past few million years are the change of glacial (glacial epochs) and interglacial (interglacial) epochs of the current ice age, due to changes in the orbit and axis of the Earth. Changes in the state of continental ice and fluctuations in sea level within 130 meters are in most regions the key consequences of climate change.

Ocean variability

On a decadal scale, climate change may be the result of interactions between the atmosphere and the world's oceans. Many climate fluctuations, including the most famous El Niño Southern Oscillation, as well as the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations, are due in part to the ability of the world's oceans to store thermal energy and transfer this energy to different parts of the ocean. On a longer scale, thermohaline circulation occurs in the oceans, which plays a key role in the redistribution of heat and can significantly influence the climate.

climate memory

More generally, the variability of the climate system is a form of hysteresis, which means that the current state of the climate is not only the result of the influence of certain factors, but also the entire history of its state. For example, during ten years of drought, lakes partially dry up, plants die, and the area of ​​deserts increases. These conditions in turn cause less abundant rainfall in the years following the drought. That. climate change is a self-regulating process, since the environment reacts in a certain way to external influences, and, changing, is itself capable of influencing the climate.

Non-climatic factors and their impact on climate change

Greenhouse gases

It is generally accepted that greenhouse gases are the main cause of global warming. Greenhouse gases are also important for understanding the climate history of the Earth. According to research, the greenhouse effect, resulting from the warming of the atmosphere by thermal energy held by greenhouse gases, is a key process that regulates the Earth's temperature.

During the last 500 million years, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has varied from 200 to more than 5000 ppm due to the influence of geological and biological processes. However, in 1999, Weiser et al. showed that over the past tens of millions of years there is no strict correlation between greenhouse gas concentrations and climate change, and that the tectonic movement of the lithospheric plates plays a more important role. Later, Royer et al. used the CO 2 -climate correlation to derive a "climate sensitivity" value. There are several examples of rapid changes in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere that are strongly correlated with strong warming, including the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum, the Permian-Triassic extinction of species, and the end of the Varangian snowball earth event.

Rising levels of carbon dioxide have been considered the main cause of global warming since the 1950s. According to the data of the Interstate Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of 2007, the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere in 2005 was 379 ppm, in the pre-industrial period it was 280 ppm.

To prevent dramatic warming in the coming years, the concentration of carbon dioxide must be reduced to pre-industrial age levels of 350 parts per million (0.035%) (now 385 parts per million and increasing by 2 parts per million (0.0002%) in year, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation).

There is skepticism about geoengineering methods for extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, in particular, proposals to bury carbon dioxide in tectonic cracks or pump it into rocks on the ocean floor: removing 50 millionths of a gas using this technology would cost at least 20 trillion dollars, which is twice the US national debt.

Plate tectonics

Over long periods of time, plate tectonic movements move continents, form oceans, create and destroy mountain ranges, that is, create a surface on which there is a climate. Recent studies show that tectonic movements aggravated the conditions of the last ice age: about 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided, forming the Isthmus of Panama and blocking the direct mixing of the waters of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.

solar radiation

The sun is the main source of heat in the climate system. Solar energy, converted into heat on the Earth's surface, is an integral component that forms the Earth's climate. If we consider a long period of time, then in this framework the Sun becomes brighter and releases more energy, as it develops according to the main sequence. This slow development also affects the earth's atmosphere. It is believed that in the early stages of the history of the Earth, the Sun was too cold for the water on the Earth's surface to be liquid, which led to the so-called. "The paradox of a faint young Sun".

On shorter time intervals, changes in solar activity are also observed: an 11-year solar cycle and longer modulations. However, the 11-year cycle of sunspot occurrence and disappearance is not tracked explicitly in the climatological data. Changes in solar activity are considered an important factor in the onset of the Little Ice Age, as well as some of the warming observed between 1900 and 1950. The cyclical nature of solar activity is not yet fully understood; it differs from those slow changes that accompany the development and aging of the Sun.

Orbit changes

In terms of their impact on climate, changes in the Earth's orbit are similar to fluctuations in solar activity, since small deviations in the position of the orbit lead to a redistribution of solar radiation on the Earth's surface. Such changes in the position of the orbit are called Milankovitch cycles, they are predictable with high accuracy, since they are the result of the physical interaction of the Earth, its satellite of the Moon and other planets. Orbital changes are considered to be the main reasons for the alternation of glacial and interglacial cycles of the last ice age. The result of the precession of the earth's orbit is also less large-scale changes, such as the periodic increase and decrease in the area of ​​the Sahara Desert.

Volcanism

One strong volcanic eruption can affect the climate, causing a cooling spell lasting several years. For example, the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 significantly affected the climate. The giant eruptions that form the largest igneous provinces occur only a few times every hundred million years, but they affect the climate for millions of years and cause the extinction of species. Initially, it was assumed that the cause of the cooling was volcanic dust thrown into the atmosphere, since it prevents solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface. However, measurements show that most of the dust settles on the Earth's surface within six months.

Volcanoes are also part of the geochemical carbon cycle. Over many geological periods, carbon dioxide has been released from the Earth's interior into the atmosphere, thereby neutralizing the amount of CO 2 removed from the atmosphere and bound by sedimentary rocks and other geological sinks of CO 2 . However, this contribution is not comparable in magnitude to the anthropogenic emission of carbon monoxide, which, according to the US Geological Survey, is 130 times greater than the amount of CO 2 emitted by volcanoes.

Anthropogenic impact on climate change

Anthropogenic factors include human activities that change the environment and affect the climate. In some cases the causal relationship is direct and unambiguous, such as in the effect of irrigation on temperature and humidity, in other cases the relationship is less clear. Various hypotheses of human influence on climate have been discussed over the years.

The main problems today are: the increasing concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere due to fuel combustion, aerosols in the atmosphere that affect its cooling, and the cement industry. Other factors such as land use, depletion of the ozone layer, livestock and deforestation also affect the climate.

Fuel combustion

Starting to rise during the industrial revolution in the 1850s and gradually accelerating, human consumption of fuel caused the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere to rise from ~280 ppm to 380 ppm. With this growth, the concentration projected to the end of the 21st century would be over 560 ppm. Atmospheric CO 2 levels are now known to be higher than at any time in the past 750,000 years. Together with increasing concentrations of methane, these changes portend a temperature rise of 1.4-5.6°C between 1990 and 2040.

Aerosols

Anthropogenic aerosols, especially sulfates emitted from fuel combustion, are thought to contribute to the cooling of the atmosphere. It is believed that this property is the reason for the relative "plateau" on the temperature chart in the middle of the 20th century.

cement industry

Cement production is an intensive source of CO 2 emissions. Carbon dioxide is formed when calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) is heated to produce the cement ingredient calcium oxide (CaO or quicklime). Cement production is responsible for approximately 5% of CO 2 emissions from industrial processes (energy and industrial sectors). When cement is mixed, the same amount of CO 2 is absorbed from the atmosphere during the reverse reaction CaO + CO 2 = CaCO 3. Therefore, the production and consumption of cement only changes the local concentrations of CO 2 in the atmosphere, without changing the average value.

land use

Land use has a significant impact on climate. Irrigation, deforestation and agriculture are fundamentally changing the environment. For example, in an irrigated area, the water balance changes. Land use can change the albedo of a particular area, since it changes the properties of the underlying surface and, thereby, the amount of absorbed solar radiation.

Cattle breeding

Livestock is responsible for 18% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, according to the 2006 UN Livestock Long Shadow report. This includes changes in land use, i.e. clearing forests for pastures. In the Amazon rainforest, 70% of deforestation is for pasture, which was the main reason why the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in its 2006 agricultural report included land use under the influence of pastoralism. In addition to CO 2 emissions, animal husbandry is responsible for 65% of nitric oxide and 37% of methane emissions of anthropogenic origin.

This figure was revised in 2009 by two scientists from the Worldwatch Institute: they estimated the contribution of livestock to greenhouse gas emissions at 81% of the world's.

Interaction of factors

The impact on the climate of all factors, both natural and anthropogenic, is expressed by a single value - radiative heating of the atmosphere in W/m 2 .

Volcanic eruptions, glaciations, continental drift and the shift of the Earth's poles are powerful natural processes that affect the Earth's climate. On a scale of several years, volcanoes may play a major role. As a result of the 1991 eruption of the Pinatubo volcano in the Philippines, so much ash was thrown to a height of 35 km that the average level of solar radiation decreased by 2.5 W / m 2. However, these changes are not long-term, particles settle down relatively quickly. On a millennium scale, the climate-determining process is likely to be the slow movement from one ice age to the next.

On a scale of several centuries, in 2005 compared to 1750 there is a combination of multidirectional factors, each of which is much weaker than the result of an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, estimated as a warming of 2.4-3.0 W/m 2 . The human influence is less than 1% of the total radiation balance, and the anthropogenic increase in the natural greenhouse effect is approximately 2%, from 33 to 33.7 degrees C. Thus, the average air temperature at the Earth's surface has increased since the pre-industrial era (since about 1750) by 0.7 °С

Selected bibliography

Agreements at the global and regional level

Porfiriev B.N., Kattsov V.M., Roginko S.A. - Climate change and international security (2011)

Safonov G.V. - Dangerous Consequences of Global Climate Change (2006)

Articles

Avdeeva T.G. - Perspectives on international negotiations on climate change: in the wake of the UN Copenhagen Conference (2010)

Aidaraliev A.A. - Global climate change and sustainable development of mountain regions of the Kyrgyz Republic (2013)

Agaltseva N. - Impact of climate change on water resources of Uzbekistan (2010)

Astafieva N.M., Raev M.D., Komarova N.Yu. - Regional heterogeneity of climate change (2008)

Artykova F.Ya., Azimova G.U., Ishniyazova F.A. - On the factors affecting meteorological conditions and water resources of urbanized territories (2018)

Borisova E.A. - Evolution of views on climate change in Central Asia (2013)

Vasiltsov V.S., Yashalova N.N. - Climate policy in an innovative economy: national and international aspects (2018)

Virt D.A. - Global Governance in the Sphere of Climate Change. Paris Agreement: A New Component of the UN Climate Regime (2017)

Getman A.P., Lozo V.I. - Legal protection of the Earth's climate: historical dynamics, main components and prospects for the development of the Kyoto process (2012)

Demirchyan K.S., Kondratiev K.Ya., Demirchyan K.K. - Global warming and the "Policy" of its prevention (2010)

Dobretsov N.L. - Climate in time and space (2010)