The situation in Aleppo and Palmyra now. Putin's private army in Syria suffers losses: Voice of America

The situation in Palmyra is the US response to the brilliant results achieved by Russia in Aleppo

Gunners from Washington

The attack on Palmyra implies professional staff work, which the militants are incapable of.

On December 11, militants of the "Islamic State" (IS) banned in Russia ousted Assad's troops from Tadmor, historical Palmyra, and for the second time captured this provincial city of world historical significance, not so strategically important, if you do not take into account the nearby crossroads leading to including Deir ez-Zor, besieged by ISIS for several years, with its oil refinery and air force base.

It is characteristic that the offensive of five thousand militants with tanks, armored personnel carriers and rocket artillery went through the desert for several hundred kilometers, but not a single intelligence service of Assad discovered it, which makes experts talk about a possible betrayal at the highest level of the command of the Syrian army and its mukhabarats.

Betrayal or rotozeystvo?

A special topic is where these five thousand IS militants came from, despite the fact that in Mosul, “besieged” by the United States and its allies, according to the estimates of the “anti-terrorist coalition”, at the time of the capture of Palmyra by the Islamists, from three to five thousand militants. Some of them came from Mosul, despite the fact that the road to Syrian Raqqa at that time had already been cut off by the formations of Baghdad and its allies besieging Mosul. Partly consisted of Syrian IS units, which were supposed to hold Raqqa itself. And they stopped doing it immediately after the US announced that the assault on the city was postponed for at least two months.

That is, it is not clear how the militants who leaked through the orders of the troops besieging Mosul and abandoned the Syrian capital of ISIS in the face of Kurdish and Turkish units theoretically competing for the right to strike Raqqa in alliance with the Americans, the Islamists went unnoticed, despite all their heavy equipment, without a single shot from the Air Force of the American coalition, Assad's aircraft and, we note, the Russian Aerospace Forces to Palmyra, which, after heavy fighting, was occupied. Moreover, the planning of such an operation implies professional staff work, which the militants themselves are hardly capable of.

The first wave of attackers was half destroyed by the Russian Aerospace Forces, which did not affect the outcome of the battle as a whole: it was lost. Palmyra was recaptured from the militants at one time after a complex and carefully prepared operation, planned and carried out under the direct control of Russian military advisers. It was lost both the first and the second time by the Syrians themselves quickly, although now they tried to hold it and succumbed to superior enemy forces.

Assad's loss of Palmyra coincided too closely with the end of the operation in eastern Aleppo to be coincidental. It is very likely that the United States in this case either directly used ISIS as an instrument of military pressure on Damascus, or turned a blind eye to the fact that it was used by their allies in the "anti-terrorist coalition" - most likely Qatar and, possibly, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Fortunately, Doha, Riyadh and Ankara at one time, if necessary, coordinated actions in Syria. Which of the versions is true is a separate question.

So far, one thing is clear: Washington and its allies have not taken and most likely will not take any action against IS in the future if this terrorist structure is at war with Assad and the Russian military.

This nullifies the meaning of negotiations with them on Syria until the final victory is achieved, that is, the destruction of terrorist groups until the moment when the rest capitulate, leaving the war under the guarantees of the negotiators from the Khmeimim base.

Which contradicts the logic of not only Western, but also domestic diplomats, the meaning of whose activity is to limit and attempt to subjugate the activities of the Russian army to themselves, instead of following military successes themselves, without pretending to leading roles, consolidating them politically. The fact that the cessation of the use of the Russian Aerospace Forces against terrorists, the limitation of the actions of the Aerospace Forces in urban areas voluntarily undertaken by Russia, and the humanitarian pauses pushed through by the UN and the United States, devalue the results of military operations, making the war endless, it is clear to any specialist. The question of when the army will be allowed to do its work in the way it is necessary to achieve the final result has no answer today.

The current situation in Palmyra is the response of the US and its allies to the brilliant results achieved by Russia and the forces it backs in Aleppo. This city will not be the capital of the Syrian jihadists, which Benghazi in Libya once became. But the fall of Palmyra shows that the Syrian war is far from over.

This requires an analysis of the situation both in Palmyra itself and in Mosul and Aleppo. Fortunately, ahead is the cleansing of Idlib, the liberation of Palmyra from militants, the lifting of the blockade from Deir ez-Zor, and it is possible that the destruction of ISIS in Iraq, as long as the United States does not actually do anything against this organization, giving it every chance. Let us consider a number of aspects of the war against jihadists in Syria and Iraq, based on the articles by Yu.

Lessons from Mosul

Let us first analyze the situation around Mosul. On December 3, a contingent of Turkish troops entered the territory of the Al-Shikhan militia camp to assist the Iraqi army in taking Mosul. Turkish reinforcements consist of three battalions with heavy weapons. They are to assist in the liberation of the Ninewa province of the Sunni militia, called the National Force for the Liberation of Ninewa. The Al-Shikhan camp is located on the border of Dahuk and Ninewa, and about 3,500 Sunni militia militants are being trained under the guidance of Turkish instructors. They should advance to Mosul in the near future.
According to experts, it is too early to talk about the real large-scale entry of Turkish troops and their participation in the storming of the Iraqi capital of ISIS. Rather, we are talking about the rotation of the Turkish contingent.

The negative reaction of Iraqi Prime Minister H. al-Abadi to the participation of the Turks in the civil war in his country is known. This Ankara will take into account, despite the harsh statements of the top Turkish leadership. The Turks are more concerned about maintaining a presence in Iraqi Kurdistan than participating in street fighting in Mosul or liberating the Sunni Triangle. In the Kurdish autonomy, Iran is increasing its influence, using contacts with the J. Talabani clan and the Kurdistan Workers' Party. There are IRGC instructors there, multiple launch rocket systems are deployed.

At the same time, a new stage seems to be emerging in the assault on Mosul. Iraqi special forces, along with police and militias, are drawn into street fighting. According to the US military, victory near Mosul is not visible. The offensive lasts two months, and the Americans were forced to correct their original plans twice. Apparently, they will have to do it a third time. The attempted offensive by the Iraqi special forces was undertaken on the instructions of al-Abadi. The military is trying to attack from the east, which makes it possible for ISIS to maneuver, concentrating forces in priority areas.

The coalition leadership and the Iraqi command are losing their nerve. The latest airstrikes on civilian targets indicate that the Iraqi security forces and the Americans have moved to forcibly squeeze the population out of Mosul. This tactic also includes the destruction of water stations, which deprived almost 650,000 people of clean water.

In October, Tehran put pressure on the Iraqi prime minister, demanding that the Shiite forces of popular mobilization loyal to the Iranians be involved in active hostilities. This is resisted by the command of the Iraqi army. At the same time, the artillery of government forces in the city is ineffective. IS fighters have created a system of underground tunnels near Mosul, allowing them to appear behind the lines of the Iraqi military. IS uses booby traps and car bombs.

Narrow streets allow suicide bombers to attack the attackers. The IS command successfully uses winter conditions for raids by mobile groups with heavy weapons in the rear of Iraqi units. At the same time, the army urges the population to stay in the city, and Prime Minister al-Abadi to leave it.

Baghdad's special forces, which have managed to gain a foothold in the eastern outskirts of Mosul, lack support from the 9th division. Her tanks tried to enter the city, but fell into ambush and retreated. Losses of Iraqi troops in November amounted to about two thousand people. The 15th and 16th divisions are being pulled up to support the 9th division, which means the concentration of almost all the attackers in the eastern direction. Plus, parts of the 15th division control a narrow section of the front in the southwest, along the road from Mosul to Tell Afar. This is still preparation for the offensive. However, the US military is drawn into it, which began to participate in hostilities on the streets of Mosul.

Radical split

The completion of the defeat of the Islamists in eastern Aleppo led to sharp divisions in their ranks. Some of the militants laid down their arms. Others agreed to leave the city, leaving along the corridor allocated to them to the province of Idlib, which remains under the control of Assad's opponents. The leaders of Jabhat Fath al-Sham (ex-Al-Nusra, banned in Russia) and Kataib Abu Ammar opposed the surrender. The radicals attacked the headquarters of the Jaish al-Islam and Feilak al-Islam brigades, which they suspected of intending to surrender by capturing weapons depots. Field commanders led by Abu Abdo ash-Sheikh, who entered into negotiations with government forces, were arrested.

At the same time, attempts to maneuver with the names of the groups and change Jabhat al-Nusra to Jabhat Fatah ash-Sham in order to dissolve the compromised structure in the alliance of nine groups failed. The attempts of the Jabhat al-Nusra leadership to publicly refuse to move away from the alliance with al-Qaeda also failed.

Formally, after much persuasion from the Turkish MIT and the Directorate of General Intelligence of Saudi Arabia, this was announced. But it was done in such a way that Washington had to declare: it does not believe in a departure from ties with al-Qaeda. Which does not prevent the United States from refraining from airstrikes on the positions of Jabhat Fatah al-Sham. Riyadh cannot abandon the ideology of al-Qaeda, since this, along with money, is a factor that ensures the arrival of new volunteers. Among those who fight in Jabhat Fatah al-Sham, there are many convinced Islamists.

Against the backdrop of the defeat of the armed opposition in Aleppo, the Turkish MIT and the Qatari State Security Service are trying to transform the disintegrating alliance of nine opposition groups.

As suggested in Ankara and Doha, Aleppo as a center of resistance, especially as a stronghold of the future expansion of anti-Assad forces, is over. In this regard, the task was put forward to create a centralized Sunni resistance in Idlib, where the “reconciled” militants from Aleppo and the outskirts of Damascus go. This allows you to drag out time, avoid the final defeat and restore combat potential. As regards, first of all, the pro-Turkish groups. Ankara and Doha are trying to become central partners and sponsors of the newly structured Syrian insurgency, squeezing the KSA and Jordan out of it.

At the same time, the Jaish al-Fatah coalition broke up not only into groups, the two largest of them are experiencing an internal split. Jabhat Fatah al-Sham split into supporters of al-Qaeda and its opponents. The main opponent of the pro-Saudi elements is the Jordanian Abu Khadija al-Urduni, who is closely associated with the Jordanian General Intelligence Directorate. Ahrar al-Sham split into Salafi and Muslim Brotherhood supporters. This group was financed by Riyadh and Ankara.

A conflict arose between their creatures. Qatar and Turkey are making efforts to preserve the centralized Sunni resistance in Syria and bring it to the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood under political legitimation in the West and positioning as the main political force that should be built into the future state architecture of Syria.

These plans and the prospects for their implementation are skeptically assessed in the analytical reports of the Saudi and Emirati intelligence services. They testify that it is unrealistic to overcome the split and attempts in this direction are a waste of time. The documents point to the productive work of the Syrian security agencies, as a result of which the process of mass desertion of a significant number of partisan field commanders began. Riyadh is at a crossroads in the choice of further tactics, which negatively affects the volume of material and technical assistance to the militants.

There is doubt about the ability to centrally manage the entire conglomerate of anti-Assad groups. Fortunately, the successful offensive in Aleppo seriously reduced such an opportunity on their part.

Aleppo as a symbol of multipolarity

Questions about the behavior of the US military contingent and the coalition led by them during the IS offensive on Palmyra make us, among other things, analyze the American initiatives against Aleppo. The inconsistency of Washington, which either put forward them through Secretary of State John Kerry, then recalled them, as well as a massive attack by the EU with the involvement of the UN (Secretary General Ban Ki-moon leaves his post and can say anything, in connection with which it is curious what his new place of work is , this may explain his behavior) and the imposition of new sanctions against the "friends of Assad" indicate that the West is panicking over the surrender of Aleppo and the fragmentation of the Sunni resistance in Syria.

Kerry's proposals are designed to save the besieged, to knock the initiative out of Moscow's hands. The State Department believed that delaying time with the help of another humanitarian truce would help regroup the forces of the opponents of the Assad regime and gain a foothold in at least some part of eastern Aleppo. Then it became obvious that the militants were leaving the city and it was unrealistic to talk about a united front. After that, the US withdrew the initial initiative, trying to understand what is happening, what are the dynamics and what options are feasible in this regard. Hence the postponement of the main round of US-Russian consultations to December 9th. Washington just doesn't know what to do.

The Europeans do not understand this either, but they do realize that the initiative in the Syrian direction belongs to Russia. Brussels' participation in humanitarian aid programs for "suffering Aleppo" has been minimized.

To say: “We cannot provide humanitarian assistance to the Sunnis in Aleppo through Moscow and Damascus, because this would be evidence of their dominance” is politically incorrect and risky in terms of obstruction from the BSV public opinion, which will accuse European leaders of having their personal political ambitions are more important than the lives of starving Syrians.

White House Press Secretary Joshua Ernest at the briefing, answering reporters' questions, could not clarify how Washington intends to force Moscow to change its policy in Syria. He mentioned sanctions, acknowledging that they do not always work. He was reminded that earlier sanctions had already been imposed on Iran and Syria, several resolutions of the UN Security Council had been adopted. Ernest urged not to confuse the protection of American interests and military action against ISIS.

“There is a lot of attention on the situation in Aleppo, but the tragedy of Aleppo should not be allowed to overshadow the importance of what was done by the United States military and the 67 members of the coalition,” he said. That after the inaction of the coalition against IS during the capture of Palmyra sounds very cynical.

At the same time, the US military bombed a hospital in Mosul, which, according to them, housed the headquarters of the ISIS. Even if it is, it is a dubious justification in terms of democratic norms.

Washington still believes that Russia's focus is not on fighting Jabhat al-Nusra, but on supporting Bashar al-Assad. This statement was made at a regular briefing for journalists by the Deputy Chief of the Press Service of the US State Department, Mark Toner. “Russia and the US agree that al-Nusra is a terrorist organization and must be destroyed, just like ISIS. But we still haven't seen Russia turning its attention to al-Nusra. It is focused on helping the regime fight moderate opposition in Aleppo. We believe that is exactly what is happening there,” Toner said.

At the same time, it is well known that in Aleppo there were, first of all, Jabhat al-Nusra and groups affiliated with it, which officially announced this. No one prevented the United States from bombing the positions of Jabhat al-Nusra in Idlib (but this was not done). It is clear that the position of officials in Washington and Brussels is explained by the fact that Syria and Russia's actions there are the destruction of the monopolar world. Washington and Brussels don't like it. But to say this openly is fraught with reputational risks. In this regard, the tactic of helping all major forces in Syria hostile to Assad has been adopted. There is not much logic here. This is what caused the loss of Washington and Brussels in the information war.

It seems that in this situation, the main task for Damascus and Moscow in the Syrian conflict has not changed. This is the final cleansing of Aleppo with the simultaneous launch of the humanitarian aid mechanism. It would be advisable to organize a trip to Aleppo for foreign journalists, as was done at the Khmeimim base. In general, it is important not to let the West seize the initiative in the informational and political areas of the Syrian conflict.

Let's pay attention to the position of Beijing, which began to emphasize support for Moscow's actions in the UN. The West was extremely frightened.

The degree of fear is indicated by the neutrality (if not support) of the United States regarding the actions of the IS in the course of the capture of Palmyra by the latter. In the end, the task of overthrowing Assad, set at the time by Riyadh and Doha, was not removed from Ankara and Washington.

By losing Aleppo, the Western and Arab-monarchist ideologists of the great Middle Eastern chaos in Syria understand that they are losing the key to all of Syria. They also understand that with all the cries about "the lawlessness of Russia and Assad in Aleppo", the same Russia and Syria will not stop in their activities to eliminate gangs in the largest Syrian city. Deprived of the opportunity to receive reinforcements, food and weapons from the outside, unable to use the civilian population as a human shield en masse, the militants are actually on their knees begging their main sponsors to do everything so that they can get out of the boiler in Aleppo.

It's clear as daylight: if it was only about the usual "bearded boys" who themselves "troubled" something militarily, then the West would not care about them. But in Syria (and in Aleppo in particular) there is a frank collaboration of terrorist pawns with those external players who are trying to use their forces to add queens and put their own “order” on the Syrian chessboard.

Pawns are systematically rolled into the sand; pawns - with a good checkmate, sponsors of pawns - with a good checkmate, "comrades" from the American, Turkish and Saudi special services, huddled in the ranks of pawns, feeling how the skin burns in soft places, - too ... And, given that the front in Aleppo has recently time has become virtually the only front on which the main forces of the Syrian army are concentrated, the main external sponsors of the Syrian lawlessness came up with an idea that, in their opinion, is capable of somehow changing the balance of power in the SAR.

This idea is to open a kind of “second front”, since things on the “first front” are such that “bearded boys” can shave off their beards in a matter of days, and this will be the final point of the liberation of Aleppo by government forces. The opening of a “second front” against Russia and Assad in Idlib, which is under the complete control of terrorists, did not make sense, because the anti-terrorist coalition frankly leaves Idlib “for dessert”. And the informational resonance in the case of Idlib would obviously not have come out.

But in Palmyra... According to the logic of foreign developers of operations, that's it. Naturally, the fact that the campaign to liberate Palmyra from ISIS (banned in the Russian Federation) was actively covered here, and how clear the signal was sent by Russia that Palmyra was wrested from the clutches of the barbarians and returned to the world as a pearl of the cultural heritage of the planetary scale.

Therefore, the very possibility of opening a “second front” precisely on the outskirts of Palmyra is a clear attempt not only to inflict as much damage as possible on the Syrian government forces and divert certain forces from Aleppo, where instructors and advisers are boiling in a cauldron, but also to reduce the situation to inflicting information and reputational damage to Russia. Like, you see - they broadcast concerts in the amphitheater of Palmyra to the whole world - come on, ISIS infantry, do something for which forces and means are poured into you where it is required ...

And the ISIS infantry gave ... And what else could be expected if the liberation of Palmyra was the liberation of Palmyra. No advance for tens, and even more so for hundreds of kilometers to the north and east, did not work out, if such goals were set then. The city, liberated from the terrorists, was left “under guard” by those units of the Syrian army, which were supposed, perhaps, to indicate their presence. The rare rumble of aircraft and the whistle of helicopter propellers in the sky over the ancient city made it clear to the developers of the strategy for conducting a terrorist war in Syria that they could wait for the right moment (for example, the weather worsened to reduce the likelihood of using aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syrian Air Force), distribute forces to the most vulnerable for Assad's forces to plot and strike.

And so it happened. Having formed four strike groups, equipped not only with off-road vehicles with machine guns familiar to ISIS, but also with armored vehicles (up to tanks), the militants climbed on Palmyra from four directions. The first strikes - with mined armored vehicles on advanced positions - are a classic of ISIS terrorist tactics.

Three directions - southern, northern and eastern - were chosen to cut off the city and the SAR military continent located in it from the main forces in the west of the province. The triple strike of the ISIS is also a clear attempt to cut off Palmyra's transport links with Homs, as well as with Damascus. These two transport arteries are truly vital to Palmyra. The advance from the three indicated directions, among which the strike from As-Safra, allowed the ISIS militants to also cut the Syrian government troops in the city into two parts, turning them into boilers by building up their own forces in the rear directions.

Now about the fourth direction of the strike of the ISIS. This is especially interesting from a tactical point of view. The fact is that the detachments, consisting of several hundred militants, attempted to block the Syrian ground reinforcements, which were moving in the direction from the Tiyyas military base. The “meeting” took place on December 10 at the site where the road to Khuveisis, As-Salamiya and Hama adjoins the Homs-Palmira highway (this is a few kilometers from the aforementioned Tiiyas base, where Russian attack helicopters are also located).

A map published on social networks, on which terrorist formations are marked in black, eloquently indicates that over the weekend (December 10-11), the situation loomed really threatening. A successful attempt for the militants to cut off reinforcements and deprive the contingent in Palmyra of supplies led to the unequivocal loss of the city previously liberated from militants by the Syrian army.

Before the ISIS offensive:

Two days after the start of the ISIS offensive:

The situation for the Syrian troops was aggravated by bad weather, which has been in the province of Homs for several days. A series of facts such as the most accurate local weather forecast available to ISIS, the distribution of forces in critical areas, strikes aimed at dissecting the main group of forces in Palmyra, an attempt to cut off Palmyra from several main roads leading to the city at once, blocking the group reinforcements, testify to only one thing: the operation was not just carefully planned, it was also planned by professionals. Even if we take into account that there are a lot of former soldiers of the Iraqi army (Saddam's army) in ISIS, it is hardly worth believing that such a well-thought-out tactic of actions at the most opportune time for this was developed exclusively by former Saddam lieutenants. There is a qualitative preparation of the operation, the exchange of information, the coordination of the actions of several thousand militants dispersed over an area of ​​more than 150 square kilometers. km. In general, the question "where do the legs grow from?" in such a situation can be considered rhetorical.

The critical situation of the Syrian troops in Palmyra forced the Syrian and Russian commands to actively engage aviation, even despite the bad weather. First of all, the all-weather Mi-28N and Ka-52 were raised into the air over Palmyra, which attacked, among other things, a group of terrorists who were trying to resist the approach of reinforcements in the area of ​​the fork in the roads to Homs and Hama. In the conditions of the strongest fog, strikes were carried out on the militants virtually all night from Saturday to Sunday. The all-weather and nighttime activity of Russian rotorcraft became an unpleasant surprise for the terrorists, plus a new high-quality advertisement for the Russian helicopter industry. However, they got used to the "surprise", which was reflected in the continuation of the offensive by the ISIS.

According to Interfax, a group of militants south of Palmyra used Kalibr cruise missiles. Long-range bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces were also involved in the operation. The Syrian command decided to use six aircraft. One of them (MiG-23) crashed in Homs province on Sunday. The officially designated reason is a “technical malfunction”, although it is much more likely that the reason for difficult weather conditions for an effective air operation suggests itself.

According to various sources, the total losses of Syrian troops on the morning of December 11 in Palmyra and its environs amounted to more than 250 people. The largest number of dead and wounded is to the north-east of the city, where, having broken through the Syrian defenses. ISIS were even able to enter city blocks. Information about the losses on the evening of the same day came extremely contradictory. One thing is clear - at least 320 people.

Thanks to the air support that allowed the blockade of the Homs-Palmyra road, the Syrian army received reinforcements and was able to stop the terrorist offensive that was so actively launched. The fighting continued. Al-Jazeera announced that the militants were able to break through to the historical center of ancient Tadmor (the name of Palmyra in Arabic). A few hours later, the same TV channel reported that the militants had completely captured the historical part of the city, while a mass evacuation of the population began from the city.

The Western, Qatari and Saudi press do not hide their gloating about the difficulties that Russia and Syria have to face in Palmyra these days. And this is understandable - they (the mentioned media) are also against terrorism... How could it be otherwise?..

Thus, we can state that the tactic of opening a second terrorist front in Syria has worked. The ideological inspirers of the militants achieved their goal - the Syrian army began a large-scale transfer of forces and means to Palmyra, exposing other areas of the anti-terrorist confrontation. The fact is also that the Syrian army has only to learn how to consolidate the victories previously obtained at a huge cost and hold the liberated territories. Otherwise, even the heroic deed of Lieutenant Alexander Prokhorenko near Palmyra is actually nullified by the lax attitude of the Syrian command. Isn't this the main task of the apologists for the Syrian chaos?..

Initially, incomplete and fragmentary data on the situation came from Palmyra. Now the picture is more or less clear. Separate sources claimed that intelligence missed the regrouping and concentration of militants for the assault on Palmyra. This is not entirely true. It turned out that the necessary information was nevertheless provided to the Syrian command.

However, then something happened that no one could have foreseen: units of the regular Syrian army, at the first shots from the militants, in a panic, throwing weapons and military equipment, fled from Tadmor (Palmyra). The valiant Syrian warriors rushed so that they were hardly stopped far to the west of Palmyra, on the outskirts of the T4 (Et-Tiyas) air base.

It was initially reported that there were no Russian military advisers in Palmyra. This is not true. "Igilovtsy" (militants of a terrorist organization banned in Russia) even published on their websites pictures of the property left by the Russians.

The number of the Russian contingent was just over 200 people (control group), plus a security group - 120 special forces. It was they who remained in Palmyra, almost alone for some time defending the city. As a result, the fighters were surrounded by superior enemy forces. To get them out of Palmyra, they had to cut a special corridor. Russian aircraft destroyed 11 jihadist armored vehicles. The Russians had to abandon part of their property (mainly from logistics).

Panic and cowardice

Ahead of all, in a panic of the retreating Syrian units, the Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Syrian Armed Forces fled.

Behind him, in complete confusion, dragging ordinary soldiers and junior commanders, fled the chief of the main operational department of the Syrian General Staff, the commander of the missile forces and artillery of the Syrian army, the commander and headquarters of the 3rd army corps, the commander of the 18th tank division.

The Deputy Chief of the General Staff was hardly found two days later. Nothing else but elementary cowardice can explain such behavior of representatives of the Syrian high command. With difficulty, it was possible to detain the alarmists and cowards, bring the units of the Syrian army to their senses, and return them to their positions by the morning of December 11, stabilizing the situation. But then the Syrians fled again.

Under Palmyra, complete chaos reigned in the units and subunits of the Syrian army. According to interlocutors familiar with the course of the Syrian campaign, Bashar al-Assad agreed with the Russian assessment of the actions of the Syrian military. The fleeing deputy chief of the Syrian General Staff has already been removed from his post and dismissed from military service.

At the same time, during the assault, the official authorities in Damascus stubbornly told the population how heroically, not sparing blood and life itself, the Syrian army was defending Palmyra.

Syrian soldiers are just terribly afraid of jihad-mobiles. There is no certainty that they will hold out in their new positions west of Palmyra. Sometimes they say that the militants near Palmyra captured some gas fields. In fact, they have long been destroyed and are of no value.

Is it worth it to recapture Palmyra?

Of course, it was impossible to keep Palmyra in such conditions. Is it worth picking it up now? So far, no such plans seem to exist. It will not be difficult to take Palmyra back with the support of aviation, but it is impossible to keep it in the future with such a level of combat capability of the Syrian army.

By redeploying combat-ready units from Aleppo to Palmyra, there is a risk of losing this city as well. The reincarnation of defeated and retreating armed formations is quite possible there. Now the activity of large jihadist detachments is noticeable northwest of Aleppo, in the area of ​​\u200b\u200bthe settlements of Anadan, Hayyan and Hraytan.

On the part of the pro-government forces, the militia is fighting first of all. From the side of the regular Syrian army, there are only two units: the special forces of Colonel Hassan Suheil (Tiger Force) and the Desert Falcons unit of the brothers Mohammed and Aymen Jaber.

The rest of the pro-government formations, according to interlocutors familiar with the operation, only do harm and are frankly inactive.

Prior to this, all the forces involved in the operation, following the agreements with the militants, observed the "silence regime" for 24 hours. The Russian Center for the Reconciliation of the Warring Parties prepared the withdrawal of illegal armed groups from the city through a special corridor in the western direction, in the Salah ad-Din quarter and further along the Castello road in the direction of Idlib.

Here it is necessary to make a reservation that numerous foreign instructors, including Turkish ones, are sitting in Eastern Aleppo. They were driven into a corner and are not allowed to leave the blockaded quarters.

The day before, the terrorists said that the remaining 2.5 thousand militants were ready to leave Aleppo. The fire was stopped. We brought 14 buses. Direct communication was organized with the commanders of the terrorist detachments and even with Ankara. Empty vehicles were kept until 21.00. At 0200, the militants offered to take 36 wounded from them. They were told: either everyone goes out, or no one. As a result, military operations began to finish off the terrorists.

Resolution of the crisis without the US and

Most likely, after the cleansing of Aleppo, perhaps on Thursday, the Agreement on overcoming the crisis in Syria will be signed in one of the capitals of states neighboring Russia. A complete ceasefire will be declared before the end of the week. Then there is a plan to organize a constitutional assembly in Syria.

Many of the participants in the hostilities, including the commanders of the armed detachments of the moderate opposition, want to move in this direction. It's time to move the process into a negotiating channel: create a special group and deal with issues of political settlement, and step by step: a new constitution, conditions and terms of elections.

All Western politicians and media are most of all dissatisfied with the fact that Russia brought closer a peaceful resolution of the Syrian crisis without the participation of the United States, Europe and even the UN. Therefore, they are trying to tell and demonstrate pseudo-horrors about the alleged humanitarian catastrophe in Aleppo.

As for the negotiating group in Geneva, it is absolutely incomprehensible to Russian military specialists who is negotiating there, with whom and in what time frame. It is only clear that, having seen obvious progress in achieving a peaceful settlement in Syria without the participation of Geneva experts, indignation began there, and now Geneva already wants to negotiate with Bashar al-Assad.

At the same time, Russian experts expressed the view that Bashar should be replaced by a more capable leader capable of bringing order to the country and the armed forces.

But there is also an understanding that just touch Assad now and everything in Syria will crumble and fall apart. This will really be the last day of the country. First of all, the president's inner circle will scatter, then the rest of the officials and the military. So far, there is objectively no replacement for Assad. To paraphrase Stalin, we can say: "I have no other presidents of Syria for you."

Now the main tasks look like this: finish off the remnants of the militants in Aleppo, form combat-ready units to hold government-controlled territories, sign a ceasefire agreement and curtail active hostilities. After all, one cannot be more Syrian than the Syrians themselves.

Mikhail Khodarenok/facebook.com

Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military observer for Gazeta.Ru, a retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Command Academy of Air Defense (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980-1983).
Deputy commander of an anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986-1988).
Senior officer of the main headquarters of the Air Defense Forces (1988-1992).
Officer of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff (1992-2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy (1998).
Browser "" (2000-2003), editor-in-chief of the newspaper "Military Industrial Courier" (2010-2015).

The performance of cellist Sergei Roldugin, a member of the Panama Papers and a friend of Vladimir Putin, at a concert of the Mariinsky Theater Symphony Orchestra in the Syrian city of Palmyra may be a gesture of contempt towards the West, which the Kremlin considers responsible for the leak of documents that cast a shadow on Putin's associates. Western observers write about this, commenting on Roldugin's participation in the concert.

On Thursday, May 5, in the Syrian city of Palmyra, the release of which from the militants of the terrorist group "Islamic State" was announced in official Damascus and Moscow, a concert "in memory of the Syrian military" was held. The event was played by the Mariinsky Orchestra under the direction of Valery Gergiev, as well as the cellist Roldugin, through him, according to the Panama Papers, money is laundered in a circle of people close to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“Putin is speaking in Palmyra, the Mariinsky Theater Symphony Orchestra is playing, and the cellist Roldugin, who is involved in laundering billions, is watching all this,” writes the Moscow correspondent of the Financial Times. Max Seddon.

Putin personally spoke with the participants of the concert "With a prayer for Palmyra" via video link, Russian media reported.

“Shamed by the Panama Papers, Roldugin is playing in Palmyra,” he noted on Twitter Michael Miller, an international journalist who worked for Mashable for a long time.

While a number of commentators limited themselves to stating the fact that the person involved in the Panama Papers played at the event, others called his presence a gesture of the Kremlin. They say the “leak”, which Moscow described as an operation of Western intelligence agencies directed against Russia, is by no means a hindrance to the Kremlin.

“Roldugin’s speech in Palmyra is the result of a month-long brainstorming session in Moscow on how to say ‘go to…’ after the Panama Papers were released,” laughs the Global Voices editor. Kevin Rothrock.

“Roldugin plays at a concert in the ruins of Palmyra. Can't stop thinking his presence is a deliberate 'fuck you' gesture directed at the West," he tweeted. Tom Parfitt, Moscow correspondent for The Times.

This is better than what befell Palmyra under the leadership of ISIS, notes Mark McKinnon, international correspondent for the Canadian edition of The Globe and Mail.

"You don't have to love Putin or Assad to think it's better than what the Islamic State had in store for Palmyra," McKinnon said.

“What do the Syrians themselves think?” - advises all observers to ask the Moscow correspondent of the Deutsche Welle Emma Burrows. And he notes: "Russia itself is very proud of its contribution to the liberation of Palmyra."