In which countries is the demographic winter. The first type (narrowed - demographic winter) the second type (expanded - demographic spring) characteristic i type: reproduction characteristic II type: - presentation

Author PanTERka asked a question in Climate, Weather, Time zones

what is demographic spring and winter? and got the best answer

Answer from Colin[guru]
There are two types of population reproduction:
Type I - demographic winter - is typical for economically highly developed countries in general, as well as for the post-Soviet space. It is characterized by low birth and death rates, close to 0 natural increase, and for some countries, natural population decline.
The second type of reproduction is called the demographic spring. It is characteristic of Africa, Asia and Latin America, and is characterized by high birth rates and relatively low death rates. Relatively low mortality is now characteristic of almost the entire world, and this is due, first of all, to the great successes of medicine in the fight against epidemics and child mortality. The high birth rate in developing countries is largely due to national and religious traditions and the lack of family planning opportunities. The birth of children here takes place according to the principle "how much God gives, so much is born."
Source:

Answer from Joker[newbie]
I also think so)

Answer from Alexey Klyushin[active]
child birth

Answer from Natalya Chudakova[active]
demography - birth rate or population growth, in this case seasonal

what is demographic spring and winter? and got the best answer

Answer from Joker[newbie]
I also think so)

Answer from Alexey Klyushin[active]
child birth

Answer from Natalya Chudakova[active]
demography - birth rate or population growth, in this case seasonal

The natural movement of the population (natural reproduction) is a set of processes of fertility, mortality and natural increase, which ensure the continuous renewal and change of human generations (K natural increase = K birth rate - K mortality).

The indicators of the natural movement of the population as a whole are rather inertial, that is, stable over the years, since they are determined by slowly changing factors - the structure of the population by sex and age, the level of economic development, the way of life and the socio-cultural needs of the population.

With strong social shifts, they can change relatively quickly, especially the birth rate, and during wars, natural disasters - and mortality. Recall at least the Second World War, which claimed millions of people around the world.

Indicators of population dynamics, depending on its natural movement, serve as indicators of the economic well-being of the territory. A short-term decline in the birth rate and an increase in mortality are the result of an economic and social crisis. Prolonged depopulation is almost always associated with economic depression. And the rapid growth of the population with a high long-term birth rate is a consequence of the archaism of the economy than its prosperity. It creates demographic stress, generates excessive pressure on natural resources, causes a shortage of jobs and, subsequently, flows of emigrants.

The natural movement of the population is carried out in three main modes: extended, simple and narrow.

Expanded reproduction is the excess of the number of births over the number of deaths.

Simple reproduction - the absence of population growth, when the number of births is equal to the number of deaths. Under this mode of reproduction, the numerical equality of the parent and child generations is formed.

Mode of narrowed reproduction - depopulation, when the number of births is less than the number of deaths.

The first regime is also called natural population growth, the second - zero, and the third - natural population decline.

The population of any country is growing due to the fact that the average birth rate exceeds the average death rate.

If we consider the whole world, then with the exception of periods of wars, epidemics and famine, the birth rate slightly exceeded the death rate. As a rule, the annual population growth reaches several units per 1000, or 1%.

There are two types of reproduction in the world:

1. "Demographic winter" - low birth and death rates (natural increase -3, mortality - 10, birth rate - 13), typical for economically developed countries (France, Japan, etc.).

2. "Demographic spring" - characterized by high fertility and natural population growth (50 people per 1000), common in developing countries (countries in Africa, Latin America, South and South - East Asia).

The first type can also be called intensive. It is due to an increase in the level and quality of life of people, an increase in the proportion of the elderly population and average life expectancy based on progressive changes in society.

The second type is called extensive - when there is a high birth rate and natural growth, the predominance of the young part in the population structure, a low proportion of the older generation without qualitative changes in society and the economy. In general, these are developing countries, which are characterized by very low overall mortality rates due to a young age structure. At the same time, the level of gender and age indicators is higher than in economically developed countries.

The rapid increase in population in countries with the second type of reproduction in the second half of the 20th century was called the "population explosion". The growth rate in Africa in the 70s and 80s was more than 3% (at that time in Europe - 0.5%, and in the USA - 1%). Moreover, in our time, the population explosion in African countries continues. An increase in the population is also predicted in overseas Asia, which is currently the most populated part of the world. Back in the 1940s -1950s, its population grew by 10%, in the 1950s -1960s - by 21%, in the 1960s - 1970s by 25% (434 thousand people). In the 1970s - 1980s, the number of inhabitants in this region increased by 482 thousand people, and in the 1970s - 1990s - by 526 million, which amounted to almost 2/3 of the world increase. If the total population of the globe continues to grow rapidly, and the way of human activity does not change, then, according to the US National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of Great Britain, humanity will not be able to prevent both the irreversible destruction of the environment and the impoverishment of a significant part of the world's population. And this will definitely happen. According to UN forecasts, the population of the Earth will be - in 2010 - 6985 billion people, and by 2115 - 7469 billion people. Moreover, the main increase in the number of human resources will be at the expense of developing countries, based on the following demographic trends in the modern world:

1. accelerated growth of the earth's population due to a sharp decrease in mortality (the result of modern achievements in the field of medicine, raising living standards);

2. high birth rate;

3. the achievement of demographic maturity by most industrial countries (low mortality and birth rates, low population growth), while in most developing countries the birth rate is still very high;

4. Industrialized countries are characterized by a steady trend towards population aging, while developing countries have a high share of the working-age population. This is one of the reasons for the large increase in the labor force from developing countries.

It is not difficult to guess that an increase in population will require new areas and resources for life. It becomes all the more scary for our Russia, in which, on the contrary, a natural population decline is observed. If the situation, which we will talk about in the next section of our term paper, does not change, then someone else will use our resources and space.

FIRST TYPE (Narrowed - demographic winter) SECOND TYPE (EXPANDED - demographic spring) Characteristics of type I: REPRODUCTION Characteristics of type II: Birth rate - Mortality - Natural increase - low up to 12 people. per 1000 inhabitants Birth rate - Mortality rate - Natural increase - high low over 12 people. per 1000 inhabitants Task: 1. Open Nastya's textbook. 49, map 13 "Population reproduction". 2. Analyze the map: which countries and regions of the world belong to type I, which to type II, draw a conclusion. Population growth depends on the nature of reproduction. Population growth depends on the nature of reproduction. Currently, there are two types of population reproduction (see diagram). Currently, there are two types of population reproduction (see diagram). EXERCISE. Consider a map. In which regions of the world did type I reproduction become widespread, and in which - type II.

Demographic crisis Low birth rate, death rate and natural increase. Stabilization of the population. “Aging” of the population (i.e. an increase in the proportion of older people in the total population). "Formula of reproduction" of the population 10 - 10 = 0 Characteristic for the countries of Foreign Europe, the CIS, North America, Australia and Japan.

Population explosion High natural increase due to high birth rate and relatively low mortality rates. Constant increase in population. A large proportion of young people in the total population. "Formula of reproduction" of the population 27 - 9 = 18 Characteristic for the countries of Africa, Latin America and Foreign Asia.

Problems associated with high population growth rates: Food (500 million people in the world are undernourished); Land depletion; Deforestation (for fuel and for the expansion of arable land); Environmental pollution (growth of urbanization => growth of landfills, slums, growth in the need for domestic services) The problem of lack of clean water, etc. growth of swa"> growth of landfills, slums, growth of the need for domestic services) The problem of lack of clean water, etc."> growth of swa" title="(!LANG:Problems associated with high population growth: Food (the world is undernourished 500 million people); Land depletion; Deforestation (for fuel and for the expansion of arable land); Environmental pollution (growth of urbanization => growth of land"> title="Problems associated with high population growth rates: Food (500 million people in the world are undernourished); Land depletion; Deforestation (for fuel and for the expansion of arable land); Environmental pollution (growth of urbanization => growth of sw"> !}

The figure shows age and sex pyramids for developing and developed countries. The length of each lane corresponds to the specified number of people. EXTENDED TYPESIZED TYPE MAN WOMAN (I type) CAUSES CAUSING LOW FERTILITY RATES (I type) (II type) REASONS CAUSEING HIGH FERTILITY RATES (II type) - a high level of socio-economic development; - a high level of urbanization (in rural areas, the birth rate is higher, in cities - lower); - change in the status of women, emancipation and the emergence of a new system of values; - an increase in the proportion of older ages - the aging of the nation; - industrial injuries. - low level of economic development, with a predominance of agriculture; - low level of urbanization (the birth rate is higher in the countryside); - a peculiar social structure, religious customs that encourage large families; - servitude of women, early marriages; - using the achievements of modern medicine to combat epidemic diseases; - bans on family planning in Muslim countries.

Economically developed countries Developing countries High birth rate Low birth rate “Nation aging” “Population explosion” Demographic policy Birth rate stimulation Decrease in birth rate Payment of allowances Benefits for families with many children and newlyweds Sexual education of young people Placement of children in children's institutions Regulation of the age of marriage Penal systems Obtaining permission to have a child propaganda measures (in China - the slogan "One family - one child")

Demographic policy in highly developed countries: birth allowance for each child; monthly allowances for children; paid maternity leave; benefits for large families and newlyweds in the distribution of housing; expansion of preschool institutions; changing the age of registration of marriages; expansion of property rights of mother and children in case of family breakup; abortion ban (Germany); promotion of the honor and importance of motherhood. one-time loans to newlyweds;

China The 1978 Constitution of the People's Republic of China stipulates that spouses must have planned childbearing. A committee on planned childbearing has been created, and permission from local authorities must be obtained for the birth of a child. A later age for marriage has been established (20-22 years). During the period of study at the institute, marriages are not allowed. Permission of abortion, sterilization. The implementation of this policy has already yielded great results. The difference between a modern city and a traditional village. “1 family - 1 child” “Family without brothers and sisters” “1 child is good, 2 is tolerable, 3 is impossible” 13% of

According to old Chinese customs and superstitious views, the head of the family, a man, should, during his lifetime, see his children, and especially sons, as adults, see how they create a family, raise their children and grandchildren. It turns out that the head of the family must live to see his great-grandchildren and see them with his own eyes, if possible. He must do his best to make sure that his family is not interrupted. Of course, the son is responsible for the continuation of the family, because the daughter in China, after she marries, leaves her parental home and goes to her husband's family. The son must continue the race, and in his family there must be a son who, in turn, will also continue the race. As a result, in China, the number of men prevails over the number of women, and every family must have a son. A woman takes her husband's surname, and she will no longer take care of her parents and relatives, but of her husband's family. This is due to the fact that in China it is customary to honor deceased relatives, and only a male can take care of their ancestors. In order to have someone to take care of the head of the family in the future, he must leave behind someone who will do this, arrange sacrifices, and honor the memory of the dead.

Given these features, we can say that a large family in China is a real boon. If there were no children in the family, if a woman is barren, then she does not deserve respect from relatives and from society as a whole. A woman unable to have children could not be a good housewife, and this could be a reason for divorce, because she did not deserve to be in her husband's family. All these traditions and customs have been preserved in China to the present day. Women are treated with respect only if she is able to give birth to a boy. The birth of a son is a great joy in the family, because in this case it will be possible to transfer all knowledge and customs to him, he is able to honor his ancestors. If a girl is born, then this does not bring anything good, because she will grow up and leave her family, there will be no one to pass on all family traditions. As a result, now many women in China even refuse to give up their daughters in the maternity hospital, in every possible way they try to get rid of the girls born. Such cruel laws applied to women, it would seem, are impossible in our time, because even cruel Muslim laws are now beginning to lose ground a bit. Women are treated cruelly in China, and this is especially true in rural areas.

There are cases when girls who are born are strangled and various frauds are committed with women and newborn children. The time when it is already possible to determine the sex of a child for a woman becomes the most terrible moment in life, and often they themselves already determine the fate of a newborn girl in advance. Only the son deserves respect in the family; daughters are discriminated against just like mothers. Although, in order to marry off a daughter, one does not need to spend a lot of money, because all the expenses are usually covered by the family of the future spouse. In this regard, the girl's parents need not worry. It is enough to prepare a modest dowry. For this reason, the Chinese government is now paying special attention to the number of children in a family, and having more than one child is simply not acceptable. There is a family planning law and those families that adhere to this law can receive various benefits. Those who go against this law may be penalized and simply tortured with huge taxes. On the one hand, this is the correct approach of China, because it is impossible to provide so many people with jobs and housing. Large families in China suffer from poverty and unemployment. There is no way to get a good enough education because there is not enough money for it. On the other hand, it is simply impossible to get rid of ancient centuries-old traditions and customs overnight, and the government will have to fight such cruel laws for a very long time.

POPULATION QUALITY IS A COMPLEX CONCEPT THAT CONSIDERS LIVING CONDITIONS: ECONOMIC (per capita income, employment, caloric intake) CULTURAL (literacy rate, number of libraries, theaters per capita) SOCIAL (health level, development of democratic institutions) ONE OF THE MAIN INDICATORS OF POPULATION HEALTH SERVES INDICATOR OF AVERAGE LIFE LIFE. ON AVERAGE HE IS 66 YEARS. HIGHEST LOWEST RATE 80 years JAPAN AUSTRALIA SWEDEN CANADA 36 years SIERRA LEONE

Economically developed countries Developing countries Peculiarities of the pyramid: a narrow base (low proportion of children) rather wide top (high proportion of the elderly) predominance of women in old age. Features of the pyramid: wide base (high proportion of children) narrow top (low proportion of the elderly) the ratio of men and women does not have significant differences.

The age of the population determines its economically active part or category of really working people. Economically developed countries Developing countries really employed - 48-50% mainly - these are workers, employees, knowledge workers in the service sector - large-scale commerce, passenger transport, personal services, banking women among workers - 40-50%. really employed - 35-40% mostly - these are peasants in the service sector - small traders, the proportion of women among workers is no more than 30%.

The population is the totality of people living within a certain territory: part of the country of the whole country, a group of countries, the entire globe.

The population is characterized by absolute momentary levels and averages for the period. As a result of the population census, information is obtained about the population for a certain date. In the intervals between censuses, the population is determined by calculation on the basis of data on the natural and mechanical movement of the population.

Population as an object of study: scientific disciplines

The totality of knowledge about the population is characterized by a system of concepts, categories, laws. The population, its development and other characteristics are studied by the sciences of the population, which primarily include: demographic statistics or population statistics - collects empirical (primary) data on the population. demography, which is also privately called the "science of population" or "the science of population reproduction" - deals with the analysis of these data, interpretation (explanation), construction of both mathematical and descriptive (descriptive) models and theories, both about the dynamics of the population as a whole, and and about its individual components and aspects. economic science - in collaboration with economic demography more often studies the "labor potential of the population"; geography - studies the distribution of the population on the territory and certain aspects of its movement (migration), ethnography, as well as ethnology - together with ethnodemography, study the ethnic composition (structure) of the population. sociology - at the junction with social demography, they study the social structure (or structures) of the population. medicine, as well as its sections such as communal and social hygiene - study the state of health of the population

Types and models of the population: The following categories of the population are distinguished in demography:

Permanent population - ordinary population, the main category that unites the totality of people for whom the given territory is the place of usual residence at a given time

A stable population is a theoretical model of a population with time-invariant birth rates, death rates, and age structure.

The stationary population is a theoretical population, a special case of a stable population with a true coefficient of natural increase r = 0 and a constant population P(t) = P(0).

In population statistics (demostatistics), which collects empirical data and records the population, the following categories are also distinguished:

The actual population is the part of the population that is at the time of registration in this settlement, regardless of the place of permanent residence.

Permanent population - the part of the population that permanently resides in a given settlement, regardless of the actual location at the time of registration.

Temporarily absent - persons who, at the time of registration, were temporarily absent from their place of permanent residence (for a period not exceeding 6 months).

Temporarily present - persons who were temporarily in this locality at the time of registration (for a period not exceeding 6 months).

Indicators characterizing the population: the number and its dynamics. intensity of demographic processes: birth rate, mortality, natural increase, marriage rate, resettlement, density, urbanization, migration, age and sex composition and marital status, level of education, racial, linguistic, ethnic and religious composition, level of socio-economic development, standard of living.

A population explosion is an extremely high rate of population growth in a certain area.

Features of the modern population explosion: in developing countries, there is a rapid population growth, significantly outstripping their socio-economic development, exacerbating the already difficult problems of employment, social sphere, food security, economy, etc.; power is significantly less than in the last century; large-scale phenomenon.

The modern population explosion not only occurs in a large number of countries, directly covering a significant part of the world population, but in essence, directly or indirectly affects the entire world community, turning a local demographic problem into one of the global problems of our time.

DEMOGRAPHIC WINTER: a term used by scientists to refer to the period of population depopulation in some countries at the end of the 20th century. due to a sharp decline in the birth rate.

The implementation of a competent demographic policy in Belarus allows us to expect that by 2015 it will be possible to ensure the growth of the country's population. This opinion was expressed to a BelTA correspondent by Svetlana Shilova, Deputy Chairman of the Standing Committee of the House of Representatives on Health Protection, Physical Culture, Family and Youth Affairs, commenting on the main provisions of the draft program of socio-economic development of Belarus for 2011-2015.

The MP positively assessed the set of measures aimed at improving the demographic situation in the country, namely to increase the birth rate and life expectancy and to reduce mortality. She emphasized the fact that the Belarusian state pays great attention to the issues of demographic security, rightly believing that the key to the successful development of any country is people - physically and morally healthy, smart, enterprising.

Among the long-term goals Belarus sets for itself is the stabilization of the population at the level of 9.4 million people by 2015. However, according to the deputy, we should be more ambitious and strive for more: not only to stabilize the number, but also to increase it. The set of measures that the state is taking to improve the demographic situation suggests that the country is able to "take a higher bar," the parliamentarian is sure.

One of the key tasks in the demographic policy of the country, Svetlana Shilova considers increasing the authority of the family, all kinds of support for this social institution. Much has already been done in this direction. One of the latest examples is the exclusion from the waiting list of those who are divorced. At the same time, when creating a family - the provision of benefits, state assistance for the purchase of housing. The deputy stressed that the lifestyle of a person and his health directly depend on family education.

Recently, a lot of attention in Belarus has been paid to pediatric care, support for motherhood and childhood. This paid off: it was possible to achieve European indicators of maternal and infant mortality. Now it's time to focus on other areas of medicine.