Possible World War 3 scenario. Possible Development Scenarios - World War III

The article is contraindicated for impressionable people. If you want to keep burying your head in the sand, then go watch the NFL Draft (an annual event during which NFL teams recruit new players from college league teams). No amount of cognitive dissonance, normality, and general apathy can protect even the most uninformed Americans from what awaits them in the near future. The solvency of the Fed is in jeopardy, and in order to understand the roots of the impending world war and imposition of tyrannical martial law, I will have to briefly consider the historical background of the issue.

Birth of the petrodollar

In 1944, a never-before-seen system of currency and exchange rates was established. At the Monetary and Financial Conference of the United Nations, which was held July 1-22, 1944 in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, the Bretton Woods Agreement was reached.

Banksters (for example, the Rockefellers) rejoiced at their luck. The consequence of the Bretton Woods conference was that countries wishing to purchase Middle Eastern oil were forced to first buy dollars and, finally, use them to buy oil.

Within our country, almost everyone has benefited from this system. By and large, Americans were enjoying the benefits of a stable currency, minus an inflation rate of about 5 percent a year that acted as an unwritten tax that went into the pockets of Fed bankers. Thus the petrodollar was born. If the dominance of the petrodollar is ever successfully undermined, our currency will sink faster than a submarine with hatches covered with mosquito nets.

From 1910 to 1971, the old guard at the Fed worked to free the economy from the gold standard so that, by indulging in a protracted and rampant spending spree, accompanied by the awarding of lucrative contracts to elite corporations without bidding, debt slavery could be imposed on the American people and government. All this was supposed to lead to a sharp increase in the deficit [budget] and line the pockets of the owners of the Federal Reserve.

The looming war with Syria is just an opening act. The main act, after the conquest of Syria, will include the attack of the US and Israel, and possibly England, on Iran. Iran is a trophy needed by the Fed's old guard to maintain its stranglehold on the global economy. At first glance, attacking Iran seems like a good idea if it keeps our economy going. However, the risks associated with choosing this course of action are astronomical.

On the brink of World War III

Syria is the first real domino in the looming conflict that threatens life on this planet. The dismantling of Egypt and Libya was only a prelude. The real action will begin in a few months with the invasion of Syria under the pretext of saving humanity from Syrian WMD, namely, chemical weapons. Hmm, is the DHS (Department of Homeland Security; approx.) planning an hour for chemical defense exercises in Denver or Portsmouth in next month? But I'm deviating from the topic, this issue will be fully covered in the next additional article in the series.

Rest assured, America is being led into a war with Syria, and don't assume for a second that this war will in any way reproduce the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Compared to Syria, and then to Iran, previous wars are like child's play compared to everything that has happened to us in the entire history of this country. The Fed's "petrodollar bailout" strategy is a high-stakes casino where you, your children, and the future of humanity are the collateral.

That an approaching war is imminent has been confirmed in the accusations now being made by the US government that Syria is using chemical weapon. In this fabrication of the Syrian version of the Boston Marathon false flag bombings, there is a possibility that if chemical weapons are used, then the CIA is the party responsible. Why? Because all roads to Tehran go through Damascus. Iran is the real target of the Fed's military agenda because it is doing the unthinkable when it wages war against the old guard of the New World Order by selling its oil to Russia, China and India for gold, a terrible threat to the solvency of the dollar.

First Syria, then Iran

Before invading Iran and facing the specter of Russian intervention, the first step is to occupy and saturate Syria with US (NATO) military forces. The occupation of Syria allows America and its allies to invade Iran from different directions. Thanks to Syria, we will see airstrikes unhindered through northern Iraq. In addition, and most importantly, the occupation of Syria would be a threat to the mobilization of forces inside Russia, which would then fall under the influence of US long-range and short-range missile batteries installed in Syria. These missiles will most likely be equipped with tactical nuclear warheads. This deterrent could give the Americans enough time to occupy most of Iran before Russia and China could operate with their conventional forces. However, this strategy ignores the danger that in this biggest game of "weak" ever played on this planet, the Chinese and Russians may resort to full-scale use of nuclear weapons.

Unexpected zigzags of the impending world war

I don't think China will attack the US in the Middle East, at least not first. I expect the Chinese to go to Taiwan and let the North Koreans issue their nuclear missiles across Japan. There is a possibility that Russia may further invade the US via Alaska.

I never thought elements of the Red Dawn script would ever materialize, but how many times have we seen the media tell us what's going to happen before the actual event? And while we're on the subject, I'd venture to predict that China will be moving towards the southwestern underbelly of the United States through Central America, given Chinese control of the Panama Canal and, as rumor has it, Chinese troops throughout Central America, including in Mexico. And if a real mess starts, all sides can launch ICBMs and nuclear missiles at each other from their submarines, and then all records will be reset. I guess now you understand why I constantly mention these psychopathic banksters who took over our government.

Iran is public enemy number one

In view of the Iranian threat to the petrodollar, Iran is in a similar but much more dangerous position than Iraq was in 2001. As we all now know, the events of September 11, 2001 provided justification for the invasion of Iraq. No, Iraq was not responsible for the 9/11 attacks, as President Bush acknowledged. But that didn't stop Bush from taking advantage of his 9/11 emotions so that America confused and tacitly agreed to the invasion of Iraq, in which the Iraqis and all the Middle Eastern nations were lumped into one big pile of those who "want to kill us from for our freedoms.

In this regard, why was it necessary to conquer Iraq? The answer is simple, Saddam Hussein was trying to sell his oil for a currency other than Fed notes (ie Euros). He posed a threat to the Federal Reserve and at the same time posed a threat to the central bankers at their headquarters, otherwise known as the Bank for International Settlements, which controls everything. central banks. During that period, these bankers would have done everything to eliminate the threat to the world reserve currency under their control, namely, the dollar.

After the end of the second Iraq war, Exxon and BP controlled 80 percent of Iraqi oil fields, and no one would sell Iraqi oil for euros or gold. However, the game has taken a different turn with Iran replacing Iraq as the main threat to the stability of the Federal Reserve notes.

Iran is destroying the United States economically. Unfortunately for every man, woman, and child in America, this day of economic reckoning is fast approaching. China started buying Iranian oil for gold. India followed suit, as did the Russians. The days of the petrodollar are numbered, which means that the days of the only source of support for the dollar are also numbered.

Russians and Chinese warned the Americans

Creating an excuse to start a war and then successfully feeding American society the need to fight is one thing. But winning a war is another thing entirely. How serious are the Chinese and Russians in their determination to resist the imperialist US? Given that both Chinese President Hu and Major General Zhang Zhaozhong have threatened the United States with nuclear war if it invades Iran, prudence suggests that the new edition of the "Axis of Evil" has clearly drawn the line.

Rise of the American Empire

America is facing a very difficult dilemma. If we are forced to accept the Russian and Chinese threat of war over the invasion of Iran, our dollar will collapse. If, after the capture of Syria, we attack Iran, the nuclear powers with formidable armies have promised to respond. America may survive the first invasion of its territory since the War of 1812.

It is possible that in the game of brinkmanship with the Russians and the Chinese, the Americans will limit themselves to the conquest of Syria in order to test the determination of the latter (for example, playing the military "weak"). However, I don't think this is very likely. The Fed will not back down. They have already killed Gaddafi and Hussein to save the petrodollar. They are not going to retreat before the Iranians, Chinese and Russians, because not their children, but ours will fight and die. So does it make sense for the elite to drive down the price of gold so they can buy as much as they can at the lowest price? She intends to be the sole survivor at the end of the next big war that will end all wars.

And how will the elite feed us war? You can be sure there will be more false flags, one worse than the other. And who do you think will be blamed? You do not need to be seven spans in the forehead to guess that the last event under a false flag will be nuclear, after which the gates of hell will open.

Conclusion

This is understandable - hands off Iran or we will get the Third World War. But does anyone really think the Fed is going to get away with it? Could the course towards a third world be the reason why so many bankers left the United States, since they know what is coming?

What does this have to do with shares under a false flag? I'll offer one hint - once you begin to understand the goals of the globalists, the bombings at the Boston Marathon and the consequences of martial law will explain a lot. The last question is the easiest to answer because the government left behind a trail of documents detailing the imposition of a state of emergency, and this description is frightening. In the next few issues of this series, I will answer all these questions, and maybe even more.

The English-language Wikipedia has hundreds of versions of what will start and how the Third World War. One of the most popular - Russia will begin the conquest of Ukraine, NATO will hit Russia. The option looks fantastic, but in 1981, in the office of the Englishwoman Thatcher, they also prepared a plan for the Third World War, when the USSR would begin to invade Germany, and the West would strike nuclear bomb across Eastern Europe.

One can be very skeptical about the anxious expectation and neurosis of negative futurologists, but every time decades later it turns out that their picture of the future is a pitiful resemblance to what is drawn in the General Staffs of the leading powers. For example, this is exactly what happened with the colorful description of the British General Staff, how the Third World War will take place. But about this plan below, but for now - about the most popular version of the causes and course of the Third World War, described in the English-language wiki.

“Former KGB agent Vladimir Putin, who became president of Russia, dreamed of returning Russia to the status of a world power. He first began building an anti-American coalition in 2003, along with allies, German and French leaders Schroeder and Chirac. With this coalition, he did not succeed, and he decided to recreate the USSR in the form of the Eurasian Union, and even expand it, including states from the "axis of evil".

Inside Russia, Putin also began rebuilding the USSR by cracking down on leftists, Sunni Muslims, and homosexuals.

At first, Obama decided to make peace with Russia, arguing that the former foreign policy was Bush's mistake. However, the "Arab Spring" showed that America does not intend to abandon its aggressive policy towards countries that do not follow the path of neoliberalism. Putin was afraid that the Americans would do the same with Russia as they did with Libya or Egypt. Putin decided to prevent the West from striking his country.

And now a brief chronology of the development of the Third World War:

February 7-23: Winter Olympic Games will take place in Sochi. During this event, the world gets a complete picture of Putin's Russia.

March 13: Belarus claims to be part of Russia. Many are shocked by this move. Russia and Belarus were close allies and tried to form a "Union State", but almost no one expected a full scale annexation.

May 20: Vladimir Putin threatens to launch a second invasion of Georgia if it opposes referendums in South Ossetia and Abkhazia on their status.

May 28: Barack Obama declares that Putin's threats are unacceptable and threatens to retaliate militarily if Putin invades Georgia.

September 12: Putin again threatens Georgia, and this time gives a deadline for the referendum - October 1.

September 13: Obama picks up a red phone in the Oval Office and urges Putin to come to his senses. He asks to convene a conference in St. Petersburg to discuss the crisis in the Caucasus. Putin accepts the offer.

September 22-30: Obama, British Prime Minister David Cameron, French President François Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei meet Putin in St. Petersburg to discuss the crisis. In the end, they all agree to holding a referendum in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

November 4: US midterm elections. Republicans receive a supermajority in the House of Representatives and a narrow majority in the Senate.

November 7: Russian Ambassador to Poland Vladimir Grinin is killed by an activist protesting violations of gay rights in Russia. On the same day, there is an assassination attempt on Putin, and he barely survives. The assassination of Ambassador Grinin and the assassination attempt on Putin provoke mass riots in Moscow, inspired by the radical opposition. Riots are also taking place in other Russian cities.

November 8-10: Riots continue. Nobody has seen or heard Putin these days, which gives rise to a wave of rumors about his death. In the end, the riots were suppressed, during their dispersal, 873 people died, more than 90 thousand people were arrested.

November 11: Putin makes his first public appearance since the assassination attempt. He announces the imposition of martial law, bans the left and liberal parties in order to “preserve the unity of the country and security. He argues that "the unrest is actually the machinations of the West, and Russia won this war from him."

December 6: Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski tells Russian Foreign Minister Alexander Yakovenko that Poland recognizes East Asia as Russia's exclusive sphere of influence.

2015

January 1: Formed Eurasian Union. It included Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Western media give it the name "New Soviet Union".

January 23: A leak appears in the US that Russia planned to invade Latvia in February 2015. This information leads to a significant change in US policy towards Russia.

January 27: Vladimir Putin orders a doubling of the Russian Navy by 2020.

February 6: President Obama reminds Putin that under Article V of the NATO Charter, if Russia tries to expand its influence into Eastern Europe, the US will be forced to use military force.

February 26: Presidential elections are held in Ukraine. No candidate receives an absolute majority of the vote, and Viktor Yanukovych and anti-Russian opposition candidate Vitali Klitschko make it to the second round.

March 14: Russia unites the territories North Ossetia and South Ossetia to form a puppet state called simply "Ossetia". The system in Ossetia is defined as an "Orthodox theocracy", and they immediately go over to the fight against gays, Sunni Muslims and communists. The US refuses to recognize Ossetia.

March 15: Russia occupies Georgia in violation of the Treaty of St. Petersburg. Georgia becomes a puppet state of Russia.

March 17: President Obama holds an emergency joint session of Congress and declares that the US will now adopt a zero-tolerance policy against Russian aggression.

March 18: Russia and Turkey are effectively at war when Turkish warships open fire on Russian warships in the Black Sea. Turkey claims that it was forced to take this step by intercepting a signal from Russian ships that they were ordered to begin a blockade of the Eastern Mediterranean in order to prevent the supply of American weapons to Syrian militants.

March 19: Runoff elections in Ukraine take place and Klitschko is declared the winner. Russia refuses to recognize the results.

March 20: Russia announces that if Klitschko is sworn in, Russia will be forced to lay claim to the Tuzla Spit in the Kerch Strait and Sarych. An emergency NATO summit in Brussels begins. NATO refused Turkey's request to provide military assistance against Russia. This was the beginning of the break between Turkey and NATO.

March 21: Putin calls a special session of the Duma. He reiterates his claims to Tuzla and Sarych, and also announces that if Klitschko is sworn in, then Russia will withdraw from the Russian-Ukrainian agreement on the naval base in Sevastopol, from the gas agreement of 2010 and from the agreement on peace and friendship of 1997 of the year.

March 23: Russia and Egypt sign a military alliance alliance between the two countries. President Putin sternly warns Egypt's enemies and declares that an attack on Egypt will be seen as an attack on Russia.

25 March: Ossetian forces attack Kurdish Muslim refugees arriving in Azerbaijan. Al-Qaeda declares war on Ossetia.

March 27: A coup is carried out in Pakistan. The pro-Western Imran Khan comes to power, he announces the de-radicalization of the country and the improvement of relations with the West. It also hinders al-Qaeda operations in Russia.

April 2: Syrian civil war ends with rebel victory. The new government cuts all ties with Russia.

the 6th of May: Ex-president USSR Mikhail Gorbachev, who emigrated after the riots last November, says at a meeting with President Obama at the White House that the Russian and Turkish governments are secretly beginning to move closer to carving up Eastern Europe between themselves.

May 17: Finland, Japan and Lebanon reject Russian proposals for non-aggression pacts.

10 July: Extraordinary NATO meeting takes place in Brussels. NATO adopts a resolution promising to defend Ukraine from any Russian attack. On the same day, the EU adopts a similar resolution.

August 23: Russia and Turkey sign a non-aggression pact to end Turkey's interference in Russia's interests in Ukraine.

August 25: Putin delays a military offensive against Ukraine for a week in response to Iranian threats to withdraw from the CSTO if Russia attacks Ukraine.

September 1: Russia attacks Tuzla in the Kerch Strait and Sarych and Sevastopol. Fighting soon begins in eastern Ukraine, with a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

As a result, the Third World War will take the lives of 250 million people and lead to the defeat of Russia and its bloc. The world will be thrown back a century. What did not happen in 1917 due to the weakness of the Entente will happen in 2016 - the Western world will occupy Russia and establish democracy and the values ​​of civilized humanity there.

(In a separate chapter, the American editors of the Wiki briefly describe that China came out on the side of Russia. From American satellites, large cities of China were destroyed, and China quickly withdrew from the war, suffering losses of 150 million people. The remaining 100 million people were killed in Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the countries of the former USSR.Nuclear weapons were not used, the main fighting accounted for the destruction of enemy infrastructure - cities, power plants, hydroelectric power stations, ports, railway junctions, etc.).

Well, now about one more scenario of the Third World War, registered in the English General Staff back in 1981.

The entire plan is still classified as "secret" in the National Archives of England. But 30 years later, in 2011, part of it was declassified.

This plan was called the "War Book", and it served as a guide to action not only for the government of the United Kingdom, but also for governors and mayors of cities.

The military book had a volume of 250 pages. Direct participation in the compilation of the "War Book" was attended by the Prime Minister of England Margaret Thatcher.

The script begins in early March 1981. This was indeed a time of deepening international tensions, following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the election of Ronald Reagan as President of the United States, and the rise of Solidarity in Poland.

In Britain, Thatcher ventured to station cruise missiles at the American base on Greenham Common, to the fury of left-wing activists and trade unions.

In the USSR, by March 1981, Brezhnev was eliminated as a result of a military coup, and the KGB junta came to power.

As in the First World War, the Balkans became a powder keg, Yugoslavia is a nominally communist country that was moving towards the West.

Britain and the United States sent additional troops to West Germany in early 1981. The USSR at this time is probing the West, sinking and detaining Norwegian fishing boats.

With the money of the KGB in England, the "fifth column" is activated - leftists, feminist organizations, trade unions, as well as various kinds of minorities - from sexual to national and religious.

Organizations such as the Purple World, backed by the Communists and the Welsh separatist Cewri Cymru - the "Welsh Giants" organize arson attacks on public buildings in England. Irish terrorists join them with KGB money. Major cities in the UK are slowly sinking into chaos.

The Ministry of Defense launches an operation to return 100,000 wives and children of military personnel from West Germany. Panic grips England - the population is actively buying up canned food, sugar, flour and gasoline. Massive demonstrations are taking place all over England. In Leeds and Sheffield, thousands of students are marching against the government. In Dartmoor Prison, 24 Irish terrorist prisoners escape with the help of leftists.

By the evening of March 11, it became known that the USSR began to gather troops to the border with Turkey and in Bulgaria on the border with Yugoslavia. At the same time, NATO is trying to strengthen its troops in West Germany and Scandinavia.

March 13 Soviet troops enter Yugoslavia. On the same day, Iraq attacked eastern Turkey. The Norwegian military is reporting a huge military buildup along their northeastern border.

The British government, meanwhile, is concentrating all its attention on the deterioration of the food situation. In many parts of the country, stores have run out of coal, gasoline, batteries and candles, as well as sugar and flour, and pharmacies have run out of medicines. Looting begins in some areas of large cities.

Leftists and trade unions, on orders from Moscow, stage acts of sabotage. For example, oil refineries with all their fuel reserves were destroyed by bombing. Attacks are also being made on naval bases.

The next morning, on Saturday, March 14, queues form at banks, people rush to withdraw their deposits. The Thatcher government is asking the Irish government to set up internment camps for British left, student and trade union activists.

On the same day, a massive anti-war rally begins in Trafalgar Square, led by prominent deputies from the Labor Party, trade union activists, sports and show business figures. It ends in a violent confrontation with the police. The government is forced to arrest the rioters, Labor leader Michael Foote and Archbishop of Canterbury Robert Runsey.

The Ministry of the Interior bans all marches and processions for a month. On the same day, 16 people die as a result of terrorist attacks.

March 16, 1981 more than 100 Soviet bombers raid England. They strike at air defense and radar installations throughout the country.

Half an hour after the start of the raid, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, Foreign Secretary Lord Carrington, and Defense Secretary John Knott have a hasty meeting. On the same morning, Soviet troops landed on the Danish island of Bornholm.

Thatcher speaks on television and radio, urging the people to calm. There is only one TV channel, BBC. Exits from major cities of the country are blocked by thousands of cars. Police say 50,000 people have already been evacuated from Manchester and 20,000 from Liverpool.

Hours later, Whitehall is rocked by a car bomb and then by an explosion at Green Park underground station, killing 8 people. England declares war on the USSR.

The next day, 17 March, Tuesday is one of the darkest days in the history of England. More than 400 Soviet bombers are raiding the country. Hundreds of dead in Glasgow, Plymouth, Liverpool and other cities. At the same time, the “fifth column” organizes several powerful explosions at airports and railway stations, including London Victoria Station.

In parliament, Thatcher invites the Laborites to rally in a common struggle, but they reject this proposal.

Panic breaks out in English cities. Robbery and looting flourish in the streets, countryside farmers shoot at people who encroach on their property.

Soviet troops use chemical weapons in Yugoslavia. The invasion of Soviet troops into Norway also begins. For the first time, the British cabinet is thinking about launching a nuclear strike on the Soviet bloc.

The next day, the troops of the Soviet bloc enter Greece, Turkey and land troops in northern Italy. NATO's position is becoming critical.

On March 20, another massive air raid on England takes place. On the same day, the troops of the Soviet bloc attack West Germany and in the first hours deepen into its territory for 40 km.

Britain insists that NATO strike nuclear strike on the Soviet bloc. But in order not to make the USSR feel that it now has nowhere to retreat, it is proposed to drop 29 low-power atomic bombs to the countries of the Warsaw Pact - to Poland, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria.

But Thatcher suggests starting with three atomic bombs, making it clear that this is only the beginning. A leak was organized to Soviet spies in the British Ministry of Defense that on March 22 NATO would launch nuclear strikes on Soviet satellites. On the evening of March 21, the USSR offers the West a truce, but on the condition that Yugoslavia and Greece are part of the Soviet bloc. The West agrees to this. But NATO is developing a plan to activate the "fifth column" in the USSR, as well as redirect Iran to fight the USSR. “The USSR should explode on its own, and not as a result of our war with it,” says Thatcher.

So then it happened, the USSR exploded itself. One plan for waging World War III was partially accurate in predicting the outcome.

In 1953-54, a powerful wave of Zekov uprisings swept through the Gulag. Their organizers were collaborators who served with Hitler - the OUN, the Baltic "forest brothers" and Russian punishers. Hundreds of them, at the cost of their lives, were able to first achieve a softening of the regime, and in 1955, an amnesty.

Unlike the USSR and the Russian Federation, the United States never hid plans for an “imaginary enemy” to invade their country. In the 1930s it was England, in the early 1940s it was Germany. This helped to mobilize the big bourgeoisie to invest in the military-industrial complex.

After the end of the Second World War, hundreds of thousands of Gulag inmates were waiting for the United States to go to war against the USSR in order to overthrow Stalin together with the Americans. In the United States itself, local intellectuals wanted the same, and even came up with a plan to democratize the USSR with the help of Russian camps.

From the Baltics to China

US presidential candidate Donald Trump admitted that. The politician said this while speaking in Ohio.

We have collected other most popular scenarios among conspiracy theorists for the start of a new global conflict and discussed them with an expert.

Baltic.“There are opportunities in which a conflict may arise, but it is not a fact that they will develop into the Third World War,” Vladimir Evseev, a military expert and deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries, told MK. - Potentially it could be Crimea, although this scenario is less feasible than the scenario with the Baltic countries.

There is a constant increase in the military presence of NATO, as well as incidents between aircraft and ships of Russia and the Alliance. At some point, this may lead to the fact that someone is shot down or drowned, and this requires a response.

At the same time, it is clear that Washington will not exchange its own cities, for example, for Riga. The presence of commitments within the framework of NATO does not yet mean that they will be implemented, so I believe that all "raids" on Russia are illusory. For the United States, the Baltic states need nothing more than a lever of pressure on Russia.”

Syria. According to Vladimir Evseev, Russia's participation in the Syrian conflict against ISIS (banned in Russia) was dangerous, first of all, by the risk of colliding with Turkey: “It would strain the Alliance, because it would be the first hostilities between Russia and a NATO country. I'm not talking about World War III. As a military expert, I estimate the probability of its beginning as extremely low.

In order for it to start, there is different variants. There may be a false operation of anti-missile attack systems, there may be a provocative launch of a certain missile. In other words, events are possible that one of the parties will consider as a threat to national interests.”

Another analyst believes that in the Syrian context, a conflict between Russia and the United States is possible on the basis of the future "repartition" of Syria. “At the end of July, Obama said that after Manbij (terrorists lost control of 70% of the Syrian city – “MK”) the next target would be Raqqa. The city is located in such a way that if the Americans occupy it, then there will be a division of Syria into two unequal territories. - said "MK" military expert Alexei Leonkov. - We are talking about a territorial area that is part of Syria and where America is trying to play the scenario of the Berlin Wall. This can lead to an escalation of the already difficult relationship between Russia and the USA.

Korean direction.“The basis of any scenario of World War III is aggression against Russia, because Russia is a nuclear power,” says Alexei Leonkov. “But hypothetically, there is still the Far East – for example, what is happening around North Korea and the United States under the pretext of localizing the conflict or demonstrating force.”

Note, according to Japanese data, Pyongyang, which loves to threaten its southern neighbors and Washington with strikes and a "sea of ​​fire", has made progress in developing nuclear weapons and launching missiles.

India and Pakistan. The authors of The National Interest magazine are sure that the Third World War can be provoked by contradictions between India and Pakistan, which have already participated in an armed conflict against each other. “If Pakistani-funded groups carry out large-scale terrorist attacks in India, as in Mumbai (a series of terrorist attacks in 2008 - “MK”), then Delhi's patience will snap. But if Pakistan is seriously defeated, the use of tactical nuclear weapons will seem the only way out. However, analysts say countries are not focusing on these contradictions right now.

East China Sea. In its recent report, the Japanese Ministry of Defense expressed concern about the military strengthening of China in the area of ​​the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands, which are the subject of territorial conflicts between Beijing and Tokyo.

Recall that Japan also deployed its forces in the area of ​​the disputed territory. If the conflict starts, writes the National Interest, then the United States will be hard to stay away: they are connected with the Japanese side by a mutual defense treaty. China could launch a pre-emptive strike on US military installations in the region, the newspaper notes.

(Remembering the Adventurer)

The strategy of the world reconquista is in fact the scenario of the Third World War, which neoconservative administration of George Bush Jr. about very aptly dubbed the "Long War". This is a completely new type of war in which the US will directly use military force against just a few, mostly minor, countries and on a limited scale. The purpose of this war is to achieve almost eternal and absolute global dominance of the United States, due to the radical weakening or destruction of all existing and potential world centers of power and the complete restructuring of the existing world order. The new imperial order should ensure direct US political, military and economic control over all countries of the world and guarantee the uninterrupted payment of significant colonial taxes by all mankind. Apparently, the long war began in 2001. and will end, tentatively, in 2018-21. removing from the global game all the main geopolitical and economic players at once - the EU, China, Russia, India, the Islamic East, Japan, Bolivarian America, Brazil, the Asian tigers, etc., after which the United States will begin the post-war reconstruction of the world. The war includes several phases and stages in each of the theaters of operations, many of which are being implemented simultaneously.

TECHNOLOGY OF THE LONG WAR

The economy of the modern world is based on energy resources, primarily oil and gas. Any significant imbalance in energy supplies can not only provoke the most powerful economic and social crises, weaken industry and military power dozens of countries, but also lead to major wars between some states, the collapse of others and the loss of sovereignty by others. Thus, a destructive impact on the global energy market may turn out to be an even more powerful and effective means of attacking the world's main centers of power than nuclear weapon.

If the United States can obtain a monopoly on the exported hydrocarbons of both Americas, then, with some restructuring of its energy consumption, which we will discuss below, they will be provided with the necessary volumes of oil and gas indefinitely. If the United States, at the same time, excludes most of the energy resources of the Big East from the world economy, then all European, Asian and African countries that are net importers of hydrocarbons will have to be content with at best 15-16 out of the required 33-34 million bar. oil and 400 of the required 650 billion m3 of gas. And if, at the same time, it is possible to at least partially limit energy supplies from Russia or rekindle civil wars in Angola and Nigeria, then the world oil shortage could reach 70%, and gas - up to 50%. Obviously, such a monstrous deficit will be extremely difficult to cover with alternative sources - nuclear energy, coal, ethanol, etc. - even in the long term and in conditions of economic prosperity. And it will be absolutely impossible to do this within a few years, and even in the conditions of an economic and political crisis.

MAIN PRINCIPLES OF THE STRATEGY

1. To limit as much as possible the threat of a preventive or retaliatory military strike against the United States by one or a group of geopolitical adversaries who correctly assessed the source and scale of the threat, primarily Russia and China.

1. Get exclusive access to the energy, raw materials and labor resources of both Americas, sufficient for the comfortable functioning of the US economy in a semi-autonomous mode for a long period of time. This should allow the United States to maintain internal stability and economic strength in the face of the destruction of most of the world's economic ties, and even in the event of a complete economic blockade.

1. Completely destabilize the Big East in order to radically limit the energy supply to the main existing and potential competitors and opponents of the United States - the EU, China, Japan, India, and Southeast Asian countries. This will not only provoke destructive economic crises in these countries and unions, but will also significantly limit the ability of the economies of these countries to recover, as well as reduce their combat capability.

1. To provoke social, interethnic and interfaith conflicts, up to large-scale actions of civil disobedience, riots, massive terrorist attacks, aggressive separatism, and even civil wars, on the territory of the main existing and potential competitors and opponents of the United States. This will make it possible to weaken state power as much as possible, damage the economy and tie up the military resources of these countries.

1. If possible, provoke a military clash between the main existing and potential competitors and opponents of the United States among themselves or with other countries, or at least initiate numerous regional conflicts on their periphery in order to tie up their military and economic resources.

1. Deliver a disarming military strike against countries that pose a real but still limited military threat to the United States, eliminating their military and industrial infrastructure - primarily against China. Ensure economic isolation and strangulation of countries that pose a full-scale military threat to the United States - primarily Russia, without getting involved in a real war with them, which could result in unacceptable damage.

1. After some stabilization of the situation in the world, begin to consistently implement the new Marshall Plan in the Middle East, Europe, Latin America, Southeast Asia, etc., introducing new long-term political and economic mechanisms colonial control and taxation.

When you have to choose between the bad and the worst, they usually choose ... a chessboard on the head.

The collapse of the Parisian monetary and financial system 1867-1918 - World War I

The collapse of the Genoese monetary and financial system 1922-1940 - World War II

Collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system 1944-1973 - outbreak of a series of intermediary and civil wars around the world - Indo-Pakistani War, Yom Kippur War (oil crisis), sponsored civil wars in Ethiopia, Angola, Lebanon and Mozambique, wars in Cambodia , Chile, Nicaragua, Iranian revolution, Iran-Iraq war, Soviet-Afghan war, etc., etc., etc.

Collapse of the Jamaican Monetary and Financial System 1976-2009(?) - World War III?

In general, in my opinion, there is no need to look for an economic way out where there is none. When the system's immanent contradictions reach a critical level, the only way to get rid of them is to break the system. And for breaking the world systems over the past 8000 years, only one method has been invented so far - a world war.

Most of the wars will be indirect, without any use of weapons by the Americans.

Such an example is the future Turkish-Kurdish war, which is being provoked by the United States by de facto creating and arming an independent Iraqi Kurdistan. The result of this war will not only be the destabilization of this region itself, but also, with a high degree of probability, the cessation of transit supplies of oil and gas through Turkey to the EU. And the parallel socio-political destabilization of Ukraine could lead to a disruption in the transit of the main flows of Russian gas. Not it is difficult to re-ignite the extinct was civil war in Algeria, especially since it seems that this is already being done - it’s not for nothing that terrorist attacks have sharply increased there in recent months. Together, this will cause an energy collapse in the EU, which, superimposed on economic crisis, will cause a social explosion in many EU countries. This social explosion can be expressed both in Muslim pogroms or terrorism, and in riots, and in separatism, and in squabbling between countries. Those. to political, economic and social chaos in Europe.

There is an opportunity to sharply destabilize Indo-Pakistani relations and provoke a new border war. No wonder the States began to put pressure on Pakistan for both the Taliban and anti-democratic, and for the support of Muslim terrorism, and with India, on the contrary, they began intensive and demonstrative cooperation in the field of nuclear energy and weapons.

In Bolivia and Venezuela, the opposition of the local financial oligarchy is very strong. The local Khodorkovskys are always ready sponsor a coup d'état if the United States provides them with initial support through the special services, and for dessert they promise the introduction of a military contingent.

You yourself know everything about the options for working with Russia. Destabilization of the Northern Caucasus through the sponsorship of terrorists and Georgian-Ossetian-Abkhazian war. Creation of a zone of instability in the south, through the sponsorship of civil national or religious wars in Central Asia. Exacerbation of relations with Europe with the help of missile defense, Poland, Baltic demarches, etc.

Just why fight for yourself where others can fight for you? What for to come up with an excuse and waste energy attacking Turkey if it can be drawn into the Kurdish war? Why mess with a nuclear Pakistan if it can be pitted against a nuclear India and start a small regional nuclear war? What for to strain and organize an invasion of Bolivia and Ecuador, if it is possible to sponsor a pro-American coup there? Why spoil your reputation by attacking Algeria or Angola, if you can ignite a civil war here and there?

But to Iran, Saudi Arabia, perhaps Venezuela and, in the end, China, of course, will have to be attacked. Iran needs to be bombed, a civil war should be organized in S. Arabia, Venezuela should be occupied, and China should be hammered into the Stone Age.

Sponsoring of combined conflicts, for example, the implementation of such a scenario of war with the Taliban in Afghanistan, which stimulates a civil war in Pakistan, then the resumption of the Kashmir conflict and the border war with India, which, theoretically, can become nuclear. Then the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, a new civil war in Afghanistan, the establishment of the Taliban regime in Kabul, the transfer of the Islamic rebellion to Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and the Uighur Autonomous Region in China. Financing the rebels in Angola and Nigeria through secret CIA channels that will finally destroy the world oil market. Look, just a few targeted actions, and there is already an energy crisis in the EU and Japan, all of Asia from the Pamirs to mediterranean sea blazes, and Russia sits in the middle of all this mess as if on a powder keg. And after all, what is interesting - almost no hostilities from the United States - well, they cracked a bomb on Iran, well, they organized a rebellion and a coup in Saudi Arabia. And the whole continent is already in complete ass. And there is no one to complain to. Well, Russia will not inflict a nuclear strike on the United States because they pushed the Taliban out of Afghanistan into Pakistan, or slammed the king of Saudi Arabia, or gave the Iraqi Kurds a little heavy weapons, which was enough to start Kurdish-Turkish wars for the creation of Greater Kurdistan.

And with China it is more difficult - everything will start with a trade war. The trade war with China will begin exactly when it allows, in some sense, to change the course of the crisis in the right direction. Here, of course, everything will depend on the crisis scenario - I'm just slowly writing it, but the approximate picture is clear.

The speculative crisis, from which everything will begin, will bring down assets not only in the United States, but throughout the world. This will cause a sharp increase in demand for US GKOs, and the yield, that is, the cost of servicing, will fall to zero on them. Then an economic recession will begin, followed by a consumer crisis, which will lead, on the one hand, to an industrial crisis, and on the other, to a budget crisis.

Around this point, different reactions of the White House are possible, but I think that the US will go the most obvious and most stupid way. Since there is a demand for T-bills, but the profitability is low, then let's warm up the dying consumer market through an increase in budget spending, and replenish the empty budget with loans, since money is given and given cheaply. Let's borrow another five or two trillion from China, Russia and all sorts of speculators. At the same time, you can hit some Iran with Venezuela, and arrange several civil wars and coups around the world so that, so to speak, global instability makes money huddle against a superpower.

How it will end is known. No industry will rise, no stable growth in consumer demand will happen, and no assets will begin to rise in price. So there will be no increase in tax revenue. As a result, the national debt will very quickly reach first $10 trillion, then $12, then $15... Here the GKO holders will start to get bored and capricious. As a result, bond yields began to take one height after another, and the terms of loans were reduced. When half of the debt is in monthly bonds, and the yield on them reaches 25%, the States will have to borrow a trillion bucks a week - eat a quarter, and immediately pay the rest to creditors on earlier loans. It is clear that here the question will go to the days when all this will go wrong and the States will have to declare a default.

This will be the right moment, to push the problem from a sick head to a healthy one. Declare a trade war on China, force it to collapse the GKO pyramid, and then point a finger at it and say that it was the Chinese who crap all the raspberries, now let them pay. China will start to get indignant, say rude things and will definitely blurt out something that you can safely show on CNN and say - "China is threatening our homes!" And hit him with a bomb. Somewhere like that. Well, I'll make it clearer and then I'll write in detail.

What? It seems to you that everything is already predetermined and will go like clockwork. States, type, stoop will wander off into a corner and with aching groans will eat pyramidon. And we will walk around the planet in a white tailcoat and spit truffles. And I'm sure that everything begins and the Empire is not going to give up. So, that world, which, due to a misunderstanding, lasted for 60-odd years, is ending. Fun times are ahead of us. And the best thing we can do is not to puff ourselves up with complacency, but to prepare for battle. And it is desirable to have a plan to seize the initiative.

There are no "global projects" that people come up with trying to explain what is happening.

There are no Atlantic projects.

There is no Western civilization as a subject.

There is no american dream and European standard of living.

There are no US national interests.

There is no democracy and universal values.

There is only a tiny handful of families that for the last 200 years have consistently been going to take by force or fraud to take all the wealth in the world. And so that it would not be very boring for all of us to watch how they put everything that belongs to humanity into their pockets, they hire entire divisions of intellectuals who come up with all sorts of different simulacra, which I listed above and in the name of which various Gorbachevs put their own countries under the knife and nations, and an American fisherman, John, goes to cut off the head of an Iraqi fisherman, Said.

And in order not to be unfounded, talking about the Club, I propose to recall different pictures about loans, real estate, property, etc., which I have already shown and which all pointed to 1975 as one, as the year when all Americans began to overspend, like they're worth nothing. And here's what's interesting - in 1974, Gerald Ford became president, and his vice president - guess who? ... Nelson Rockefeller! The grandson of that same John Davison, and, of course, the brother, nephew and brother-in-law of all sorts of different Rockefellers who were engaged in their small family business - milked the Fed, the budget and all sorts of federal trifles. And the funny thing is that at the end of 1974, J. Ford entrusted his vice president with a very important mission - to defeat inflation. You can throw the biggest rock you can at me, but I look at the graphs of income, expenses and debts of the population and with the naked eye I see that Nelson, naturally, did not waste time. I don’t know if he managed to defeat inflation, but from the bad habit of Americans to squeeze money from his relatives and friends, he drove these same Americans away in just a few weeks and for life.

You can object that this is an accidental excess, but in general these elders robbery masters and they don’t let you get to the White House for a cannon shot? I believe. I believe that's all. It is enough to look at the father and son of the Bushes, who have been sitting in the largest chair in the White House for 11 of the last 19 years. These Georgies, of course, our financial support... d I don’t know if they don’t know, which is quite obvious from the history of their surname:

Samuel Prescott Bush (October 4, 1863 – February 8, 1948) – industrialist and entrepreneur, director and later president of the Buckeye Steel Castings Company, led by Frank Rockefeller, brother of oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller . Someone you know, right?

Prescott Sheldon Bush (May 15, 1895 – October 8, 1972) - Son of Samuel P. Bush, U.S. Senator from Connecticut and director of one of the Fed's major bank shareholders, the Brown Brothers Harriman. Do we remember such a name?

George Herbert Walker Bush (June 12, 1924) - Son of Prescott S. Bush, 41st President of the United States, former Vice President of the United States, congressman, ambassador to the UN, director of the CIA, etc., etc., and member of the board of the oil company Dresser Industries - subsidiaries of Brown Brothers Harriman(again this ubiquitous Harriman, so it was empty for him!), The director of which was his father, then the owner and head of the oil company Zapata Oil.

George Walker Bush (July 6, 1946) - Son of George HW Bush, 43rd President of the United States, former governor of Texas and board member of the oil companies Arbusto Energy, Spectrum 7 and Harken Energy.

Any questions? In general, I strongly recommend reading about the family of the current President. Just open all his relatives in a row and read from the first line to the last. I swear on my mother - after that, all sorts of detectives will seem boring accounting reports to you. Briefly summarized, we can say that the Bush family is extremely large and friendly. Their main occupations over the past century have been the oil business along with the Rockefellers, the banking business along with the Harrimans and Warburgs, as well as fraud and financial scams at your own peril and risk. Well, as a punishment for unsuccessful scams, their sponsors forced them to serve their political service - to earn money as all sorts of senators, congressmen, governors, vice presidents and presidents, where they became famous for various amazing feats. But of course, in their posts, they fundamentally fought against these most infamous Rockefellers and Harrimans, thanks to which it was precisely from the time of the presidency of Pope Bush that the growth curve of the debts of the population, business and the state left the parabolic trajectory and entered the exponential one.

Counter strategy

The problems of the US economy are systemic and extremely neglected. The root cause of all these problems is that recent decades The colonial sector of the US economy has become not only essential, but absolutely indispensable due to the fact that it has practically supplanted the national economy proper. At the same time, the ongoing geopolitical processes in the world have already dealt a mortal blow to this colonial sector. Thus, in the current paradigm of the world order, the United States is doomed to a catastrophic crisis. In this sense, it is completely pointless to bring them down - a super crisis is inevitable. And it will be theoretically impossible to return after this crisis to the heights at which they were yesterday. And even to restore to the level of just a strong middle peasant in the United States will require the actual introduction of a mobilization economy ala Stalinist industrialization, and a couple of decades of hard work.

However, another way is also possible for the United States - to go beyond the limitations of the international system of economic and political relations that developed after the Second World War. This is the way to manage the global crisis, destroy the foundations of the world economy, destroy the system of international relations, induce many conflicts and civil wars in all regions and, ultimately, recolonize the world destroyed by the crisis and war as a winner, as after WW2. Actually, I have already talked a lot about the implementation of this approach in this thread and I consider it the most likely. If this scenario is realized at least in general terms, then neither Russia, nor China, nor Europe, nor Japan - no one at all - will have nothing to catch in this world. Therefore, we are now in a very narrow space of possibilities: on the one hand, the global super crisis has actually already begun, and on the other hand, the States will do everything to saddle it and turn it into an instrument of global reconquista, especially since this is technically feasible.

We will have a year and a half from mid-2008 to early 2010 to break American game. It will be too late to move on. How to break? I already spoke about it. It is necessary by any means to block the Americans' ability to undermine the world energy market and at the same time carry out a very tough attack on the American financial system. Russia alone will not cope with this. We need at least China as a partner. In fact, this is the unleashing of a new Cold War. But the only alternative to it is a hot Third World War and our almost inevitable strategic defeat. On the other hand, if the economic crisis can be localized within the borders of the United States, then this new cold war may not be so terrible. Not many US will go to cold war if they have another Great Depression there, with millions of hungry, destroyed by industry, dead finances, etc.

Is Russia preparing such a step? In general, in a broader context, the question is fundamental. Should we assume that at the moment the only notable player that determines the global agenda and implements its own scenario (the one that I am trying to synthesize) are the States, or is an active systemic and coordinated opposition is being formed in the world (a hypothetical union of Russia, China and India ), which in the very near future - 2-3 years - will undermine the US scenario game and derail all their plans? My position is no. There is no systemic, command opposition from the United States. There is an open front of Russia, Iran, Venezuela and individual ingenious schemes designed for 10-15-20 years, like in China. Neither is able to break the US scenario in the short term. And after 3, maximum 4 years, it will be possible to break the American strategy only with a full-scale nuclear strike.

I say all this not because I like the United States - on the contrary, and not because I call for nuclear war. On the contrary, I am trying to convey the idea that we have only 2-3 years to destroy the American scenario of a global economic depression, unleash the Third World War with the likely use of nuclear weapons and global recolonization. And they need to be used full program. And for this it is not enough to build pipelines to China, slowly move the ruble towards convertibility and buy enterprises in Europe. Putin needs to go to China and put the question point-blank - March 25, 2009 - we begin a one-time attack on the US financial and economic system. Dot. Otherwise, in 3-5 years, a fluffy northern animal will come to all of us.

Someone will still have to give up the role of a cowardly kid who cheats something behind his back, and apply for the status of a real macho who acts cool and is really responsible for the market. For this, the rest will follow. Look, as in the European, Asian and even Arab press, a couple of months after the Munich speech, it broke through - only the lazy one does not call the USA an Empire, colonialists, aggressors, morons, etc. In general, one brave, who is the first to say "Well, fuck nah" - is needed. This first will have to be us - there is no one else.

I would do it in the middle of the fourth, i.e. in the first half of 2009. Theoretically, the Americans are in the fifth phase, i.e. a massive build-up of debt during a budget crisis can be skipped and go straight to hyperinflation, so it's best not to risk it. Those. we skip the speculative crisis, the beginning of the economic downturn, we give fire up consumer and industrial crisis, and at this moment, when the Americans are already starting to cut with tax revenues, the economy is in the ass, and the people are already in complete panic, we kick in the stomach. They will not have the opportunity to react - the dollar goes into a tailspin, the GKO pyramid is collapsing, and there is exactly zero chance of turning it into hyperinflation. Instead of hyperinflationary recovery of the economy and an overload of problems on the rest of the world, the US itself gets a default and a deflationary depression. We are in white and on a horse, and they are up to the top in the outhouse. Besides new President(Obama) will just take office and his administration will still be practically incapacitated, tritely confused and physically unable to respond promptly and adequately.

"Otherwise, in 3-5 years, a fluffy northern animal will come to all of us. " - And again the Adventurer is in a hurry, a full-fledged scribe, as it has now become obvious, will not come to us until the end of 2015-beginning of 2016. There was actually no confrontation, and now it's too late to rush about, yes. So: "But the only alternative to it is a hot Third World War and our almost inevitable strategic defeat"- start somewhere in 2018-2021, already without alternatives. Only modest "nearly" still leaves hope for a relatively favorable outcome of events ...

Can humanity survive the next wave of global confrontation? In our time, there are at least 5 hotbeds of conflict that can develop into a global one. This was reported on November 21 by the American magazine National Interest.

So, according to American military analysts, the "black list" looks like:

1. Syrian conflict. The spread of the "Islamic State" * is of concern to most of the world's leading powers, including France, Russia and America. But even with the advent of a coalition uniting these countries, clashes could arise between the allies due to different views on the future of Syria. In turn, active hostilities between external forces in Syria could attract Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia and possibly spread to other parts of the globe.

2. The contradictions between India and Pakistan, which, although they have existed for many years, can escalate at any time. If Pakistan-sponsored radical groups carry out major terrorist attacks on Indian soil, Delhi's patience may run out. And if Pakistan suffers a serious defeat, the use of tactical nuclear weapons may seem like the only way out. Further, America may enter the conflict, which in recent times closer to India, and China, if it decides that it must stand up for Pakistan.

3. The situation is in the East China Sea, where China and Japan have been playing a dangerous game around the Senkaku archipelago for the past two years. Both countries made claims to the islands, and each deployed military forces in their vicinity. If a conflict between China and Japan breaks out, America, which is bound by a mutual defense treaty with the Japanese, will find it hard to avoid interfering, and China will try to be proactive by attacking US military installations in the region.

4. The situation in the South China Sea is due to a dangerous US confrontation with Chinese naval and air units. The loss of self-control of one of the parties can lead to the most serious consequences. A US-China war in itself would be a disaster, and Japan and India could still intervene in it.

5. Developments in Ukraine - but in this case everything will depend on NATO's readiness to intervene in the situation. If Russia is confident in NATO intervention, it can take steps to get ahead of the alliance's mobilization. And any attack or serious threat of attack on one of the NATO countries can serve as a pretext for the alliance to start hostilities.

The Free Press tried to find out: is the National Interest exaggerating how close the world is to World War III?

Throughout the history of mankind, there have been hotbeds of conflicts in the world, and always some hotbeds could lead to the outbreak of world wars, - said the leading expert of the MGIMO Center for Military-Political Studies, Doctor of Political Sciences Mikhail Alexandrov. - It all depended on how realistic the countries assessed the balance of power. In other words, world wars usually arose when one of the parties mistakenly believed that it was stronger and could achieve victory.

For example, during the Cold War there were many hotbeds of conflict, but the likelihood of them escalating into a world war was extremely small. America and the Soviet Union quite realistically assessed the balance of power, competently approached the analysis of the international situation, and this served as a guarantee that any crisis, even such a dangerous one as Caribbean crisis 1962 in Cuba - will not develop into the Third World War. But in those days there were other crises: the wars in Korea and Vietnam, the entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan, the wars in Angola, Mozambique, and Nicaragua. But they all remained local.

And today the problem is not whether there are hotbeds of conflict, but how Western politicians realistically assess the balance of power. In my opinion, they judge the situation not too sensibly.

"SP": - Why do you think so?

Western politicians have not yet recovered from the euphoria of self-proclaimed victory in the Cold War. They misunderstood the situation of the Soviet Union's abandonment of communism and the transition to a market economy and a democratic society. For some reason, they behaved as if the USSR had suffered a defeat in a "hot" war, and now Russia, as its successor, must play by the rules imposed by the West.

They still believe that the West is very strong and can dictate its will to everyone in the world. It is this military-political miscalculation that provokes a situation in which it becomes possible for any conflict to escalate into the Third World War.

"SP": - How realistic are the 5 World War III scenarios described in the National Interest?

I do not think that the conflict between India and Pakistan can escalate into a global war. It is unlikely that anyone will get into it, even if the parties resort to tactical nuclear weapons. In my opinion, the Indo-Pakistani conflict as certainly disappears.

But any of the other 4 scenarios is probable to varying degrees. For example, the Japanese-Chinese contradictions, as well as the conflict between China, the Philippines and Vietnam around the Spratly Islands, have the potential to develop into a serious war.

As for Ukraine, I do not think that NATO will interfere in the events in the South-East of Ukraine, even if Russia sends troops there. Unless, of course, the Western elite thinks rationally. If unrealistic moods prevail in the West - they say, now we will crush the Russians - this can actually lead to an escalation. The scenario of the West's actions in such situations is known: first, the supply of weapons, then the dispatch of military instructors, and then it comes to the entry of NATO contingents.

But, I repeat, there is understanding in the West regarding the Ukrainian situation. But in Syria, indeed, an uncontrolled escalation of the conflict may occur. For example, some politicians in America today say that in Syria it is necessary - without consultation with Russia - to introduce a no-fly zone and American troops. But we must understand: if the United States unilaterally takes such steps, we can go too. And where the line of demarcation of the zone of interests will pass, clashes between the troops of our two countries are possible.

I think that now the Turkish military is also participating in the Syrian conflict - the ISIS militants are painfully competently resisting, this is not like the actions of ordinary rebel terrorists. If Turkey escalates and increases its presence in Syria, Ankara may want to provoke a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, or encourage a Tatar rebellion in Crimea. In this case, we will most likely begin to actively support the Kurds - and the situation has every chance of getting out of control. Yet Turkey is a member of the alliance and will demand to be taken under the protection of NATO.

From the point of view of such forecasts, it is extremely useful that Russia has demonstrated military power in Syria - this should have a sobering effect on Western strategists. Moscow has shown that it has not only a nuclear, but also a non-nuclear deterrence potential, and is capable of attacking not only Europe, but also America with non-nuclear weapons.

"SP": - What will the Third World War of the future look like?

The National Interest writes about a real war using large groups. But of course, there will be no war of fronts, as in World War II. In my opinion, this will be, first of all, an aerospace operation, which will be aimed at suppressing the main enemy control centers. Most likely, the Third World War will be aimed at actions with non-nuclear weapons in order to disable communications, communications, and suppress the enemy’s will to resist. The calculation will be made on the fact that with such tactics the enemy will not risk using nuclear weapons.

With Russia, I think, such a number will not work - but with China it is quite possible. Beijing does not have an arsenal of strategic non-nuclear deterrence; moreover, its strategic nuclear forces are rather weak. Even the existing US missile defense system is capable of neutralizing Chinese missile salvos. Washington believes that Beijing will not even try to launch a nuclear strike, because it is afraid that America will unleash the full power of its nuclear fist on Chinese territory in response.

With strategic non-nuclear weapons, the Americans, having gathered forces around China, can quite easily destroy the Chinese Navy, actually lock China in the continental theater, and then involve the forces of local rebels and terrorist groups in the cause - that is, transfer the campaign to the format of a network-centric war. Fortunately, there are a lot of regions in China that are ready to rebel at the opportunity - this is Tibet and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. I think that in Hong Kong there is a numerous "fifth column" ready to take part in the uprising.

As a result, rebellions will begin, the separation of a number of regions from the Celestial Empire - and China as a single powerful state will cease to exist.

In my opinion, now only one thing is holding back America from such a scenario - the understanding that the Russian Federation will not stand aside. The destruction of China will dramatically change the balance of power in the world, and then Russia will find itself alone in a hostile environment. This is not to our advantage, and therefore we will intervene in the US-China conflict - and in this case, an escalation to the level of a strategic nuclear one becomes likely.

Summing up, there are now two truly dangerous points: China and Syria. And the main military balancer, which does not allow the West to finally seize dominance over the world, is Russia ...

Now there is a huge spread of opinions on what is considered the Third World War, - says Ivan Konovalov, director of the Center for Strategic Studies. - Many politicians and experts are convinced that the Third World War is already underway. This, in their opinion, is indicated by the critical growth of contradictions between Russia and the West, and between China and America. If it were not for the current situation in Syria, against which the confrontation froze, the Third World War would have been felt more and more strongly.

The peculiarity of this global war is that it is being waged indirectly. Everyone understands perfectly well today that nuclear weapons are weapons. Therefore, schemes worked out during the Cold War are used. Then the two blocs - NATO and the United States on the one hand, and the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact countries on the other - also did not confront each other on the battlefield, but indirectly supported one side or another. In the 1990s, this situation changed: everyone suddenly decided that the confrontation was over, and a great bright world awaits us ahead. But, as it turned out, this is not so. Therefore, in the 21st century, the indirect military method of resolving political issues has become popular again.

Syria is just the battlefield in this proxy world war, and the number of such points will only multiply ...

* The "Islamic State" (ISIS) by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation of December 29, 2014 was recognized as a terrorist organization, its activities in Russia are prohibited.