Does Belarus have nuclear weapons. Russia is ready to place nuclear weapons in Belarus

In the symbolic club nuclear powers modern Belarus has existed for almost five years: from the collapse Soviet Union in December 1991 until November 27, 1996, when the last echelon with missiles filled with nuclear charges left the territory of the republic.

Since then, a number of politicians have more than once heard words about allegedly lost power for nothing, because a nuclear club is a convincing argument for countering the intrigues of external potential enemies that encroach on the sovereignty of the state. Then suddenly the ambassador Alexander Surikov speaks about the possible deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus "with a certain level of mutual trust and integration." That Alexander Lukashenko call "the worst mistake" withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Belarus, accusing "our nationalists and Shushkevich" for screwing up "the greatest asset and expensive commodity".

Occasionally, some anonymous sources from the Belarusian and Russian military departments declare their readiness to return nuclear missiles to the blue-eyed, provided that "management decision made". It is noteworthy that Allied military experts note: “Belarusians have the entire military infrastructure of the Warsaw Pact era in perfect condition, up to launchers missiles with nuclear warheads that were taken to Russia after the collapse of the USSR".

It is clear that it is unsafe, to put it mildly, to approach such facilities - still operating or mothballed - to put it mildly. However, some idea of state of the art, for example, bases capable of storing ammunition with nuclear filling can also be obtained from open sources. It should be emphasized that in a hypothetical return to Belarus "greatest asset" it is these bases that are of paramount strategic importance. Everything begins with them.

Our part of nuclear history

Data about total nuclear charges in the USSR have never been published in the open press. According to various estimates, in the Soviet Union there were from 20 to 45 thousand units. Some researchers point out that as of 1989, there were about 1180 strategic and tactical nuclear warheads on the territory of the BSSR. Bases for their storage began to be built in the early 1950s. And they built, it must be said, for centuries: they did not spare high-quality cement, the storage facilities were buried in the ground to a depth of 10 meters.

Among the very first and largest military depots - nuclear bases designed for storage and preparation for use atomic bombs, a base was built at the airfield long-range aviation, located in Machulishchi, which is two dozen kilometers from Minsk. In the language of the military, it was called military unit No. 75367 and had the code name "repair and technical base."

Another base missile weapons strategic purpose(RVSN) was located near Gomel. Almost nothing is known about her, only the number - military unit 42654 - and the code name "Belar Arsenal".

The most famous object of this series was and remains the artillery arsenal, which began to be built in 1952 near the Kolosovo station in the Stolbtsy district of the Minsk region. Before the collapse of the USSR, the storage served military unit 25819, and it itself was called the 25th Arsenal of the Strategic Missile Forces. Officially, the unit was disbanded and withdrawn to Russia in 1996. However, later the unit was reanimated, and now it is listed as the 25th arsenal of rocket and artillery weapons in the Armed Forces of Belarus. It was here that the dismantling of nuclear warheads took place in the 1990s under the close supervision of NATO inspectors.

Noisy "Kamysh" and the commander disappeared

After the last nuclear warhead was removed from the arsenal to Russia, confusion and vacillation began in the unit. It was easy to get to the once-secret object, bypassing the checkpoint, simply by stepping over a fallen fence. By the way, the arsenal was essentially three objects: on the same territory in woodland there was a military camp and the actual administrative part of the unit with technical facilities. The ammunition storage base called "Kamysh" was located a few kilometers from the headquarters - also in the forest. In 1996, there was practically no security there anymore.

Pillars with shields with the inscription “No entry. We shoot without warning" were turned out. The premises of the checkpoint were plundered, the remains of the alarm were lying on the ground. The only thing that remained untouched was the territory itself, where there were warehouses with conventional ammunition underground. True, there were no people who wanted to go there. The seven-kilometer perimeter territory was fenced with two rows of barbed wire, which was under high voltage. Next to the locked gate stood a five-meter metal tower with loopholes. The sight is terrible...

The command of the arsenal and the officers who remained in the ranks and unnecessary to anyone were more concerned with the problem of their own survival than with service. The local authorities threatened to de-energize and deprive the military of heat for non-payment of accumulated debts. The situation was terrible, and each of the servicemen was spinning as best they could.

The commander of the arsenal, a colonel, simply solved the problem of his own survival. One day he just disappeared. As it turned out, he deserted, but not empty-handed. Along with him, a suitcase with very expensive "trophies" disappeared: the colonel stole 600 magnets with a high content of platinum for a total amount of about 100 thousand dollars. During the dismantling of missiles in the unit, there was a collection of non-ferrous and precious metals.

How and at what cost the 25th arsenal was restored and, as they say, put into operation, we will not guess.

According to Naviny.by, about ten years ago, this military facility was equipped with the latest integrated security system, which consists of several subsystems. The technical territory of the arsenal is a wire fence with a voltage between the lines of 3,000 volts. Even if you overcome this milestone, then inside you can run into electric shock traps with a voltage of under 6 thousand volts with three levels of operation: signal, warning and striking. A special video surveillance system also helps to protect the territory at any time of the day. Plus, the human factor in uniform and with a gun.

By all indications, the 25th arsenal is capable of protecting and maintaining not only weapons of the usual, let's say, explosive type. As the military say: "We carry out orders, but do not discuss!".

They recently received another such order. After their commander-in-chief on February 13 approved the Agreement between Belarus and Russia on the joint protection of the external border of the Union State in the airspace and the creation of a Unified Regional System air defense. Why is there no reason to gossip about the once lost nuclear power and options her acquisition?

On Monday Russian ambassador in Belarus, Alexander Surikov, when asked by Interfax about whether Russia would deploy new military facilities in Belarus in connection with the deployment of an American missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, answered quite unexpectedly:

It already depends on the level of our political integration. And also from the points of view of experts, diplomats, the military: it is necessary, it is possible, when, how. I mean facilities related to nuclear weapons.

Quite a diplomatic response up to last sentence. But no one pulled the ambassador's tongue, and the informational nuclear bomb exploded.

The next day, Alexander Surikov hurried to correct the situation. He told ITAR-TASS that his position on military cooperation "has been completely misinterpreted". At the time of writing, official Minsk and Moscow refrained from commenting. But on both sides the ocean is coming discussion of perspectives. The American senators are outraged, the Minister of Defense of Lithuania calls for prudence.

The entire military infrastructure of the Belarusians is in perfect condition, this also applies to the launchers of missiles with nuclear warheads, which were taken to Russia after the collapse of the USSR. Returning missiles to the mines is much faster than building a radar in Poland, says Ivan MAKUSHOK, Assistant Secretary of State of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.

He is echoed by some Russian generals. For example, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, believes that Russia should place a tactical nuclear weapon(range less than 5500 km).

Deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus does not make Minsk a nuclear power and does not violate it international obligations, - quotes the words of Ivashov Interfax. - Just as US nuclear weapons stationed in Germany do not make Germany a nuclear power.

In general, the military is already making plans.

FIRST HISTORY

Stanislav SHUSHKEVICH, initiator of the withdrawal of nuclear weapons from Belarus: I understood what a threat it was to the country

Enough with Belarusian lives to defend Russia, - Stanislav Shushkevich reacted to the statement, under which they began to withdraw nuclear weapons from Belarus. - remember the second world war. Belarusians have suffered millions of losses, which cannot be compared with any other nation. Do they again want to set Belarus up and turn it into a nuclear test site, which will be struck first in the event of a conflict? Why is it necessary?

- But, perhaps, the Belarusian side will receive financial benefits?

You can't trade lives.

- But in the event of a nuclear war, will there be a difference where the missiles are located - in Lida or Smolensk?

This is very big difference. When there were nuclear weapons in our country, we had so many missiles that Belarus had to be destroyed in the first place.

- And how did the withdrawal process begin?

From the Belovezhskaya agreement. I immediately said that without any preconditions or compensation, we are ready to remove nuclear weapons from our territory. The operation was also beneficial for Russia - it received weapons without compensation.

- And what were you guided by when making such a decision?

- I have been in charge of the department for 20 years. nuclear physics and understood what a threat these weapons pose to Belarus. It was very easy for me to convince the government of this.

P.S. Stanislav Shushkevich nominated for Nobel Prize peace. The initiative comes from former president Poland Lech Walesa. Shushkevich nominated for his main peaceful achievement - conclusion nuclear missiles from Belarus.

HOW IT WAS

In 1996, the last strategic missile was withdrawn from Belarus.

Our country voluntarily gave up nuclear weapons.

Belarus inherited 81 intercontinental ballistic missiles (with a range of more than 10,000 km) and 725 tactical-class warheads from Soviet times. An army with such an arsenal could destroy a target at any point. the globe. On the other hand, enemy missiles were also aimed at Belarus.

In April 1992, the government voluntarily gave up nuclear weapons. And in February 1993, the Supreme Council decided to join the Republic of Belarus to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

A gradual withdrawal of nuclear weapons to Russia began. The last echelon with RS-12M Topol missiles was withdrawn on November 27, 1996.

BY THE WAY

Russian bombers count on the airfield in Baranovichi

Russian strategic bombers Tu-160 and Tu-95 resumed flights to the US coast. In order to fly to the destination, the so-called jump airfields are used - sites where aircraft can be provided with technical assistance, refueling, and rest for crews. One of these airfields is located in Baranovichi. Russian generals reported that now the bombers are flying without nuclear weapons on board.

SAID

I think that there will be no such situation and situation for delivering tactical nuclear weapons here ... If there is a threat to our peoples, nothing needs to be ruled out, we must ensure our security with all our strength and means. (Alexander LUKASHENKO during the Union Shield-2006 exercise.)

The list of nuclear powers in the world for 2019 includes ten major states. Information on which countries have a nuclear potential and in what units it is expressed quantitatively is based on data from the Stockholm international institute Peace Research and Business Insider.

Nine countries that are officially owners of WMD form the so-called "Nuclear Club".

No data.
First test: No data.
Last test: No data.

To date, it is officially known which countries have nuclear weapons. And Iran is not one of them. However, he did not stop working on nuclear program and there are persistent rumors that this country has its own nuclear weapons. The Iranian authorities say they can build it for themselves, but for ideological reasons they are limited only to the use of uranium for peaceful purposes.

So far, Iran's use of the atom is under the control of the IAEA as a result of the 2015 agreement, but the status quo may soon change - in October 2017, Donald Trump said that the current situation is no longer in the interests of the United States. How much this announcement will change the current political environment remains to be seen.

Number of nuclear warheads: 10-60
First test: 2006
Last test: 2018

In the list of countries with nuclear weapons in 2019, to the great horror of the Western world, the DPRK entered. Flirting with the atom in North Korea began in the middle of the last century, when Kim Il Sung, frightened by the US plans to bomb Pyongyang, turned to the USSR and China for help. The development of nuclear weapons began in the 1970s, froze as the political situation improved in the 1990s, and naturally continued when it worsened. Already since 2004, nuclear tests have been taking place in the “mighty prosperous power”. Of course, as the Korean military assures, for purely harmless purposes - for the purpose of space exploration.

Adding to the tension is the fact that the exact number of North Korean nuclear warheads is unknown. According to some data, their number does not exceed 20, according to others it reaches 60 units.

Number of nuclear warheads: 80
First test: 1979
Last test: 1979

Israel has never said it has nuclear weapons, but it has never claimed otherwise either. The piquancy of the situation is given by the fact that Israel refused to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Along with this, the "Promised Land" vigilantly monitors the peaceful and not so peaceful atom of its neighbors and, if necessary, does not hesitate to bomb the nuclear centers of other countries - as was the case with Iraq in 1981. Israel has been rumored to have had the potential to build a nuclear bomb since 1979, when flashes of light suspiciously similar to nuclear explosions were recorded in the South Atlantic. It is assumed that either Israel, or South Africa, or both of these states together are responsible for this test.

Number of nuclear warheads: 120-130
First test: 1974
Last test: 1998

Despite the successfully detonated nuclear charge back in 1974, India officially recognized itself as a nuclear power only at the end of the last century. True, having blown up three nuclear devices in May 1998, two days after that, India announced its refusal to further tests.

Number of nuclear warheads: 130-140
First test: 1998
Last test: 1998

It is no wonder that India and Pakistan, having a common border and being in a state of permanent hostility, strive to overtake and overtake their neighbor - including the nuclear area. After the 1974 Indian bombing, it was only a matter of time before Islamabad developed its own. As the then Prime Minister of Pakistan stated: "If India develops its own nuclear weapons, we will make ours, even if we have to eat grass." And they did it, however, with a twenty-year delay.

After India conducted tests in 1998, Pakistan promptly conducted its own by detonating several nuclear bombs at the Chagai test site.

Number of nuclear warheads: 215
First test: 1952
Last test: 1991

Great Britain is the only country of the nuclear five that has not conducted tests on its territory. The British preferred to do all nuclear explosions in Australia and pacific ocean, however, since 1991, it was decided to stop them. True, in 2015, David Cameron lit up, admitting that England, if necessary, is ready to drop a couple of bombs. But he didn't say who exactly.

Number of nuclear warheads: 270
First test: 1964
Last test: 1996

China is the only country that has committed itself not to launch (or threaten to launch) nuclear strikes against non-nuclear states. And in early 2011, China announced that it would maintain its weapons only at a minimum sufficient level. However, China's defense industry has since invented four types of new ballistic missiles that are capable of carrying nuclear warheads. So the question of the exact quantitative expression of this "minimum level" remains open.

Number of nuclear warheads: 300
First test: 1960
Last test: 1995

In total, France conducted more than two hundred nuclear weapons tests, ranging from an explosion in the then French colony of Algiers to two atolls in French Polynesia.

Interestingly, France has consistently refused to take part in the peace initiatives of other nuclear countries. She did not join the moratorium on holding nuclear testing in the late 50s of the last century, did not sign the nuclear test ban treaty in the 60s, and joined the Nonproliferation Treaty only in the early 90s.

Number of nuclear warheads: 6800
First test: 1945
Last test: 1992

The possessing country is also the first power to carry out a nuclear explosion, and the first and only one to date to use a nuclear weapon in a combat situation. Since then, the United States has produced 66,500 nuclear weapons of more than 100 different modifications. The bulk of the US nuclear weapons are ballistic missiles on submarines. Interestingly, the United States (like Russia) refused to participate in the negotiations that began in the spring of 2017 on the complete renunciation of nuclear weapons.

US military doctrine states that America reserves enough weapons to guarantee both its own security and the security of its allies. In addition, the United States promised not to strike at non-nuclear states if they comply with the terms of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

1. Russia

Number of nuclear warheads: 7000
First test: 1949
Last test: 1990

Part of the nuclear weapons was inherited by Russia after the demise of the USSR - the existing nuclear warheads were removed from the military bases of the former Soviet republics. According to the Russian military, they may decide to use nuclear weapons in response to similar actions. Or in the case of strikes with conventional weapons, as a result of which the very existence of Russia will be in jeopardy.

Will there be a nuclear war between North Korea and the United States

If at the end of the last century the aggravated relations between India and Pakistan served as the main source of fears of a nuclear war, then the main horror story of this century is the nuclear confrontation between North Korea and the United States. Threaten North Korea nuclear strikes- a good tradition of the United States since 1953, but with the advent of the DPRK's own atomic bombs, the situation new level. Relations between Pyongyang and Washington are tense to the limit. Will there be a nuclear war between North Korea and the United States? Perhaps it will be if Trump decides that the North Koreans need to be stopped before they have time to create intercontinental missiles that are guaranteed to reach the west coast of the world stronghold of democracy.

The United States has been holding nuclear weapons near the borders of the DPRK since 1957. And a Korean diplomat says the entire continental US is now within range of nuclear weapons. North Korea.

What will happen to Russia if a war breaks out between North Korea and the United States? There is no military clause in the agreement signed between Russia and North Korea. This means that when the war starts, Russia can remain neutral - of course, strongly condemning the actions of the aggressor. In the worst variant for our country, Vladivostok can cover fallout from the destroyed objects of the DPRK.

In response to the nuclear shield that the United States is about to deploy over Eastern Europe, Russia may place part of its nuclear facilities on the territory of Belarus. Ambassador made such a statement today Russian Federation in Belarus, Alexander Surikov, specifying, however, that it depends "on the political integration of the two countries." Earlier, Alexander Lukashenko emphasized that he regretted the withdrawal of nuclear facilities from the territory of the republic in the early 90s and that now he would have acted differently.

Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov did not rule out the deployment of new Russian military facilities in Belarus as a response to the deployment by the United States of the Eastern European missile defense system. Moreover, Surikov emphasized that he was talking about "objects related to nuclear weapons," the Interfax news agency reports.

The statement was made by Surikov today. “Everything depends on the level of our political integration,” the ambassador specified, as well as “on the opinions of experts, diplomats and the military: it is necessary, it is possible, when, how.”

The words of the Russian ambassador have already caused a significant stir in the Belarusian media, and a number of politicians (albeit from the category of the former ones) hastened to comment.

So, in an interview with the Belarusian resource “Charter’97” former minister defense of the republic, Pavel Kozlovsky said that he personally did not understand "what Mr. Surikov is based on."

"Relations between Russia and Belarus in recent times only get worse. There is a clear disintegration. I think that Lukashenka, despite his previous regrets about the withdrawal of nuclear missiles, is not interested in hosting Russian nuclear facilities,” Kozlovsky stressed.

Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Belarus Andrei Sannikov commented on the words of the diplomat in even harsher tones: “Ambassador Surikov apparently forgot that he is not somewhere in the Altai Territory, but in independent Belarus. Such statements, firstly, are not characteristic of diplomats, and secondly, they can be regarded as an encroachment on the sovereignty of the state.”

“Russia once again confirms that it is for independent state a source of reduced security, both energy and military,” notes Sannikov, who in the early 1990s participated in negotiations on the withdrawal of nuclear facilities from Belarus.

Recall that in 1990-1991, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, on whose territory part of the nuclear weapons of the USSR were located, transferred them to the Russian Federation, and after the signing of the Lisbon Protocol in 1992, they were declared countries without nuclear weapons.

This protocol is an addition to the Soviet-American Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms.

Thus, Russia became the legal successor of the USSR, retained the status of a nuclear power, the seat of a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and assumed many common obligations with the union republics, including the payment of debts.

In the future, Alexander Lukashenko expressed regret that all the missiles were removed from the territory of Belarus. Last year, he even suggested the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons if there was an immediate threat to the Union State.

He also stressed that his country once renounced the possession of nuclear weapons without any preconditions. However, if the issue of renunciation of nuclear weapons "would be raised now," he would "not do so."

However, he also noted that “now there is no need to deploy tactical nuclear weapons in the first strike zone” and “there are enough necessary weapons in the Russian Federation, which, in which case, can be used in Belarus.”

All these words were said by Alexander Lukashenko in June 2006, that is, before relations between the union republics became noticeably more complicated due to the “oil and gas war”.

Almost every day, the media reports new nuclear weapons tests. Russia and the US are testing their nuclear capabilities by launching from various launch vehicles.

Fortunately, the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis is still a long way off, but there are troubling questions that we will try to answer.

Who has nuclear weapons today?

Today, the members of the "nuclear club" are the USA, Russia, Great Britain, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea. Probably Israel also has atomic weapons However, the country does not confirm or deny this fact.

The American B-52 will be able to deliver up to 31.5 tons of nuclear bombs and missiles to almost anywhere in the world. Photo: wikipedia.org

The most difficult thing is to detect and destroy nuclear submarines armed with nuclear missiles, mobile ground complexes and nuclear trains. By the way, Russia is actively working on the creation of such a train, armed with six RS-24 Yars ICBMs.

The United States has the most powerful nuclear missile submarine. Their Ohio nuclear submarines have colossal destructive power. Each of them is equipped with 24 missile silos, which is still an unsurpassed world record. In total, the Americans have eighteen such submarines.

The main boats are Trident II D-5 missiles, which can be equipped with either 14 W76 warheads with a capacity of 100 Kt, or 8 W88 warheads (475 kt).

Thus, having fired the entire ammunition load, Ohio is able to bring down up to 336 warheads on the enemy.

What is a nuclear warhead capable of?

The leadership in the use of nuclear weapons belongs to the United States, which dropped nuclear bombs the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The power of the bomb dropped on Hiroshima was 13-18 kilotons. This was enough to destroy all buildings within a radius of 2 km from the epicenter. Within a radius of 12 kilometers, the buildings suffered more or less significant damage. 90% of people who were at a distance of 800 meters or less from the epicenter died in the first minutes.

For comparison: the power of a modern warhead of the Topol-M complex is 550 Kt, which is about 30 Hiroshima. According to information published by meduza.io, such an explosion is capable of destroying almost all buildings within a radius of 5 kilometers from the epicenter. Destruction of varying severity will occur within a radius of 30 kilometers.

The range of modern nuclear missiles is 8-11 thousand km, which is enough to hit any target on Earth. The accuracy of these deadly products is quite high. For example, Russian rocket RS-18 "Stiletto" has a circular probable deviation of the order of 350 meters.

What are the non-use guarantees?

The whole theory of deterrence is based on the inevitability of mutual destruction in the event of a nuclear conflict. In Soviet times, such a guarantee was the “Perimeter” system, or “Dead Hand”, as it was called in the West.

The "dead hand" was endowed with the ability to analyze the change in the military and political situation in the world - the machine evaluated the commands received over a certain period of time, and based on them it could conclude that there was "something wrong" in the world.

If the Perimeter brain decided that the country had been hit by a nuclear attack and the entire leadership was destroyed, then the system activated to release the entire remaining nuclear arsenal at the enemy. "Perimeter" could bring the team not only to silo-based missiles, but also to missile submarines equipped with nuclear weapons, control centers of the Air Force, Navy and Strategic Missile Forces, naval and long-range missile-carrying aircraft.

Last year, Russia on the planned modernization automatic system"Dead Hand" controls.

"Journal of Theory international relations and world politics" writes that today the United States and other members of the nuclear club understand the essence of the emerging "offensive deterrence" in different ways. For the Americans, it is important to force Russia, China and illegal nuclear powers to reduce their nuclear potentials. For Moscow and Beijing, it is to encourage the United States to abandon steps that are unfriendly towards them.

Who theoretically can start a nuclear war?

Tensions exist today between many nuclear-weapon powers. Russia does not have the most best relationship with the United States, with India - with Pakistan, North Korea also threatens the Americans.

From the moment a decision is made to pressing the “red button”, a very short period of time passes, during which the fate of millions of people is decided. So, Hillary Clinton said that it takes about 4 minutes from the moment an order is given to the people responsible for launching a nuclear weapon do it.

Military observer Alexander Golts in an interview with meduza.io said that he decided to start nuclear war only a leader who has "supervalues" can. That is, someone for whom there is something more important than the survival of their own people.

“In this case, the doctrine of mutual deterrence ceases to work: after all, this leader is not afraid that irreparable damage will be caused to his country. In addition, it is required that such a leader would not be bound by the need to consult with anyone. North Korean ruler Kim Jong-un best meets these criteria..

Nuclear summer or winter: what will a nuclear war lead to?

What will happen after the exchange of nuclear strikes? Professor American College Worcester John Gates is sure that nuclear summer will come. In his book The US Army and Irregular Warfare, Gates suggested that after numerous nuclear explosions, as well as numerous fires caused by them, the temperature on Earth would rise by several degrees.

According to another version, a nuclear winter may come. This was first mentioned in Nuclear Winter: Global Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Explosions in 1983.

In it, scientists came to the conclusion that the main effect of the explosions will be the cooling of the Earth, since the soot that has risen into the air will cover the Sun. In many regions of the earth, the temperature will drop below zero degrees, and this will last for about a year.

In 2007-2008, Rutgers University scientist Alan Robock, as a result of research, came to the conclusion that after a global nuclear conflict, soot will remain in the upper atmosphere for about 10 years. At the same time, in North America the temperature will drop by 20 degrees Celsius, and in Eurasia - by 30.

Scientists Luc Oman and Georgy Stenchikov believe that after nuclear war nuclear fall is coming. They wrote about this in their paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research. According to their calculations, if about 150 million tons of soot are released into the atmosphere, the temperature on the Earth's surface will drop by an average of seven to eight degrees Celsius. And even after 10 years, the temperature will remain 4 degrees below normal.